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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.65 | Will I burnout by the end of 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.65 | Will HIMS close at 50.00 or higher in 2026?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-07-06 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-07-01 | FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.65 | Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). Peter Diamandis | Space | 11% | ||
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Ganymede by EOY 2046?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-02 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.65 | Will I be alive at the end of 2029?(market prob: 91%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_031 Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 42% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 21% | |
| 0.65 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.65 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.65 | Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will a humanoid robot walk on the mars before a human does?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_044 Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments Mark Cuban | Robotics | 28% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.65 | OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.65 | GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen | Macro/Economy | 48% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before 2030?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.65 | Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | INF_020 In-orbit data-center market will reach approximately $1.77 billion by 2029 and grow to approximately $39.1 billion by 2035 — a 67.4% CAGR driven by Starship economics, radiation-hardened TPU hardware, and mega-constellation filings. BIS Research | Space | 26% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-16 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis | Space | 56% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis | Space | 18% | ||
| 0.65 | Will NATO cease to exist before 2030?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg | Labor/Jobs | 22% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-29 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.65 | Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk | Robotics | 18% | |
| 0.65 | Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 246_049 Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-30 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.65 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | |
| 0.65 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-09 | CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang | Semis | 72% | ||
| 0.65 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 3⅖(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.65 | Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.65 | Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.65 | Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | Will NSSB get delayed by more than 30 minutes?(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.65 | Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.65 | Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.65 | Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in June?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-11 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the CFTC clear Polymarket for US traders by end of 2027?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.65 | Will BTC hit $70k in June after market creation?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will the Twin prime Conjecture be proven before 2030?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin | AI | 32% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.65 | Will my Trader bonuses exceed 100,000 for the June 2026 season?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-22 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Truth Social be bought before 2029?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.65 | GPT-5.6 released by July 13?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.65 | Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-28 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.65 | Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-28 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.65 | LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4](market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_050 AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutions Eric Schmidt | AI | 57% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.65 | Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | |
| 0.65 | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.65 | Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.65 | Will Xi Jingping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-18 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.65 | Claude 5 released by End of September 2026?(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.65 | Will there be a physical protest at YouTube headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-15 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis | Space | 56% |