Validations Queue

111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 22 of 110, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.65manifold
2026-06-23
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.65manifold
2026-06-23
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.65manifold
2026-06-27
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.65manifold
2026-06-30
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.65manifold
2026-06-30
247_006
Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026
Peter Diamandis
AI50%
0.65manifold
2026-06-30
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.65manifold
2026-07-06
INF_039
Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v...
Alex Finn
Consumer77%
0.65manifold
2026-07-01
FUT_001
Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie...
Superforecaster Community
AI48%
0.65manifold
2026-04-28
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.65manifold
2026-04-30
246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).
Peter Diamandis
Space11%
0.65
Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%)
manifold
2026-05-01
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.65manifold
2026-05-02
COD_SPC_004
Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026
Codex Research Pack
Space48%
0.65manifold
2026-05-02
CMQ_001
By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks.
Sam Altman
AI45%
0.65manifold
2026-05-11
247_031
Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity42%
0.65manifold
2026-05-12
247_045
1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026
Peter Diamandis
Robotics32%
0.65manifold
2026-05-14
238_023
Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag)
Dave Blundin
AI21%
0.65manifold
2026-05-14
242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy34%
0.65manifold
2026-05-14
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.65manifold
2026-05-16
235_035
Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI22%
0.65manifold
2026-05-16
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.65manifold
2026-05-18
247_044
Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments
Mark Cuban
Robotics28%
0.65manifold
2026-05-18
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.65manifold
2026-05-30
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.65manifold
2026-05-29
242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy34%
0.65
S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?(market prob: 57%)
manifold
2026-05-27
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.65manifold
2026-05-26
INF_042
Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an...
Marc Andreessen
Macro/Economy48%
0.65manifold
2026-06-07
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.65manifold
2026-06-08
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.65manifold
2026-06-13
INF_020
In-orbit data-center market will reach approximately $1.77 billion by 2029 and grow to approximately $39.1 billion by 2035 — a 67.4% CAGR driven by Starship economics, radiation-hardened TPU hardware, and mega-constellation filings.
BIS Research
Space26%
0.65manifold
2026-06-16
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.65manifold
2026-06-19
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.65manifold
2026-06-23
242_057
Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission
Peter Diamandis
Space56%
0.65manifold
2026-06-23
246_013
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.
Peter Diamandis
Space18%
0.65manifold
2026-06-24
FUT_017
Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc...
Gerd Leonhard
Media/Ads50%
0.65manifold
2026-06-26
246_021
GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI38%
0.65manifold
2026-06-27
247_013
99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today
Peter Dannenberg
Labor/Jobs22%
0.65manifold
2026-06-29
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.65manifold
2026-06-30
234_013
Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks42%
0.65manifold
2026-07-01
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.65manifold
2026-04-25
ROB_009
External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ...
Elon Musk
Robotics18%
0.65manifold
2026-04-25
246_049
Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI24%
0.65manifold
2026-04-30
COD_SPC_003
SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Space28%
0.65manifold
2026-04-30
242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy34%
0.65manifold
2026-05-01
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.65manifold
2026-05-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.65manifold
2026-05-04
INF_010
US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues.
Morgan Stanley
Energy56%
0.65manifold
2026-05-05
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.65manifold
2026-05-06
242_055
Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks34%
0.65manifold
2026-05-08
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.65manifold
2026-05-09
CMQ_028
NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026).
Jensen Huang
Semis72%
0.65manifold
2026-05-12
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.65manifold
2026-05-14
231_002
Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.65manifold
2026-05-16
238_040
Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.65manifold
2026-05-17
247_045
1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026
Peter Diamandis
Robotics32%
0.65manifold
2026-05-16
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.65manifold
2026-05-29
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.65manifold
2026-05-29
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.65manifold
2026-05-27
231_008
AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes.
Peter Diamandis
AI50%
0.65manifold
2026-05-24
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.65manifold
2026-05-24
242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy34%
0.65manifold
2026-05-31
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.65manifold
2026-05-31
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.65manifold
2026-06-01
SEM_039
Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory.
Jack Dorsey
Semis/ASICs83%
0.65
Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%)
manifold
2026-06-03
247_028
Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing
Dave Blundin
AI45%
0.65manifold
2026-06-04
238_017
Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026)
Dara Khosrowshahi
Labor/Jobs51%
0.65manifold
2026-06-10
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.65manifold
2026-06-11
SEM_009
The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+).
Mark Cuban
Economy30%
0.65manifold
2026-06-13
234_014
We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks59%
0.65manifold
2026-06-15
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.65manifold
2026-06-16
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.65manifold
2026-06-16
S_IPO_TRILLION_2027
First $1T+ IPO in 2027
ipo_trillion_plus40%
0.65manifold
2026-06-17
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.65manifold
2026-06-19
232_015
AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years.
Dave Blundin
AI32%
0.65manifold
2026-06-22
246_014
Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space41%
0.65manifold
2026-06-22
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.65manifold
2026-06-22
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.65manifold
2026-06-19
242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy34%
0.65manifold
2026-06-24
TK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15%
0.65manifold
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.65manifold
2026-06-28
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.65manifold
2026-06-28
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.65manifold
2026-07-06
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.65manifold
2026-04-29
FUT_023
'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri...
Ian Bremmer
Geopolitics68%
0.65manifold
2026-04-28
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.65manifold
2026-04-28
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.65
Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%)
manifold
2026-05-01
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.65manifold
2026-05-03
241_050
AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutions
Eric Schmidt
AI57%
0.65manifold
2026-05-03
247_011
OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.65manifold
2026-05-05
229_021
In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.
Brett Adcock
Robotics14%
0.65manifold
2026-05-06
TK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10%
0.65manifold
2026-05-08
247_038
Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor)
Michael Saylor
Crypto48%
0.65manifold
2026-05-10
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.65manifold
2026-05-11
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.65manifold
2026-05-16
234_014
We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks59%
0.65manifold
2026-05-18
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.65manifold
2026-05-18
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.65manifold
2026-05-16
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.65manifold
2026-05-15
IND_010
Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...
Jared Isaacman
Biotech/Longevity43%
0.65manifold
2026-05-26
236_007
US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future
Andrew Yang
Macro/Economy50%
0.65manifold
2026-05-26
242_057
Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission
Peter Diamandis
Space56%