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114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 69 of 222, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-07-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-07-05 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-07-06 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-07-07 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | Will BTC cross $65000 by 8Th July 2026 3Pm GST(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-07-07 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-07-07 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will Cyberpunk 2 release before the end of 2027?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-07-08 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.63 | Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Build a Bear outperform the SP500 for the year of 2027?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk | Robotics | 22% | |
| 0.63 | will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.63 | Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 35% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | ||
| 0.63 | Will SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | |
| 0.63 | Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will my prediction market idea win?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.63 | Will I get an 100 on my Arabic Midterm?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | |
| 0.63 | Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Xi Jingping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | |
| 0.63 | Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 229_007 Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 48% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.63 | Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 242_032 AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 33% | ||
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $78K in June?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.63 | Will the June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_017 TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm. TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 57% | |
| 0.63 | Will the June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-02 | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | 30% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-03 | COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 33% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I (Mitpro) reach Expert in Codeforces again before July 1st(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 70% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-07 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-11 | ROB_024 Automated robotics and AI-powered monitoring will establish a global network of BioVaults — a 21st-century high-tech backup plan for life on Earth; as humanity faces potential extinction of nearly half of Earth's species by 2050 due to climate and habi... Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Israel hold an election in 2027?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.63 | Will England become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | ROB_015 The 2025-2028 period is defined by massive automation/job displacement equivalent to 25 years of Industrial Revolution economic upheaval compressed into 3 traumatic years — followed by the dawn of the 'Agentic Era' in 2027 where autonomous AI agents pa... Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 38% | |
| 0.63 | Will this market get between 10-20 unique traders by June 20?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% |