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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.64	FDA ANDA076914: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — GRAVITI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on July 1?(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on July 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 2?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 29-July 5?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on July 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Number of people Trump pardons on July 4, 2026?	manifold 2026-07-01	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.64	CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Bridging the Gap Between Latent and Explicit Reasoning with Looped Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-30	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Robustness of neural networks to random noise perturbations of their inputs	arxiv 2026-06-30	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Introduction to Stochastic Differential Equations for Generative Machine Learning: A Variational Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-30	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.64	Falsification, Not Exposure: An Internally Preregistered Placebo-Controlled Decomposition of Self-Repair Feedback in Frozen Small Code Models	arxiv 2026-06-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	Calibrating the Evaluator: Does Probability Calibration Mitigate Preference Coupling in LLM Agent Feedback Loops?	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Transformers as Bayesian In-Context Experimenters: Smoothness-Adaptive Efficient ATE Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Warp RL: Reshaping Base Policy Distributions for Dynamics Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-30	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Teaching LLMs to Recommend and Defer in Underrepresented Epilepsy Care	arxiv 2026-06-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	Gradient Smoothing: Coupling Layer-wise Updates for Improved Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Using AI Agents to Automate Black-Box Audits of Personalization Algorithms at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_015 The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen resumes generated by other bot agents, completely removing the human connection required to accurately assess contextual experience — bot-on-bot recursive... Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	86%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 3?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Decision-Aware Training for Sample-Based Generative Models	arxiv 2026-07-01	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.64	Explainable AI for Cancer Drug Response Prediction: Beyond Univariate Feature Attributions	arxiv 2026-07-01	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	Explainable AI for Cancer Drug Response Prediction: Beyond Univariate Feature Attributions	arxiv 2026-07-01	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	From Pixels to Temporal Correlations: Learning Informative Representations for Reinforcement Learning Pre-training	arxiv 2026-07-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Soft Mixture-of-Recursions: Going Deeper with Recursive Vision Transformers	arxiv 2026-07-01	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.64	Domain Arithmetic: One-Shot VLA Adaptation under Environmental Shifts	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Active-GRPO: Adaptive Imitation and Self-Improving Reasoning for Molecular Optimization	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	PAPA: Online Personalized Active Preference Alignment	arxiv 2026-07-01	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Ghost in the Kernel: In-Context Learning with Efficient Transformers via Domain Generalization	arxiv 2026-07-01	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Neural Network-Based Estimation of Time-Dependent Parameters in AR(p) Processes	arxiv 2026-07-01	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.64	Gauging, Measuring, and Controlling Critic Complexity in Actor-Critic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-07-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Timesynth: A Temporal Fidelity Framework for Health Signal Digital Twins	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.64	TRIE: An Evaluation Framework for Stochastic PDE Surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on July 4?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will I reach 300 Questions by August 18, 2026 (8/18/26)? (This is my 151st.)(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-07-04	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.64	Program-as-Weights: A Programming Paradigm for Fuzzy Functions	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	What LLM Agents Say When No One Is Watching: Social Structure and Latent Objective Emergence in Multi-Agent Debates	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	VisionAId: An Offline-First Multimodal Android Assistant for People with Visual Impairment, Featuring Personalized Object Retrieval	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	Dynamic Neural Graph Encoding of Inference Processes in Deep Weight Space	arxiv 2026-07-02	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.64	OntoLearner: A Modular Python Library for Ontology Learning with Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Scaling with Confidence: Calibrating Confidence of LLMs for Adaptive Test Time Scaling	arxiv 2026-07-02	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	VLAFlow: A Unified Training Framework for Vision-Language-Action Models via Co-training and Future Latent Alignment	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	Extreme Adaptive Transformer for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-07-02	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Tight Lower Bounds for the Multi-Secretary Problem via Bellman Certificates	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Probing Chemical Language Models: Effects of Pre-training and Fine-tuning	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metrics	arxiv 2026-07-02	FUT_010 Fundamental cost of clean electricity drops by another multiple of 4 over 2026-2031+; precipitous decline drives solar to ~1/3 of all global electricity generation. Wright's Law mathematical certainty applied to silicon PV + lithium-ion storage + elect... Ramez Naam	Energy	70%
0.64	Towards a Phonology-Informed Evaluation of Multilingual TTS	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	WARP: Weight-Space Analysis for Recovering Training Data Portfolios	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Mean Field Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-07-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Towards Robustness against Typographic Attack with Training-free Concept Localization	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Visually Grounded Self-Reflection for Vision-Language Models via Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	On the Limits of Steering Vectors for Preference-Aligned Generation	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	NEUROSYMLAND: Neuro-Symbolic Landing-Site Assessment for Robust and Edge-Deployable UAV Autonomy	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Robust Image Processing Techniques for Construction Environment Monitoring Using Underwater Robots	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Will the combined net worth of Greg Brockman and Dario Amodei exceed that of Elon Musk, before one of them dies?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-07-05	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	22%
0.64	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Opus 4 revived by EoY 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-07-05	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.64	FDA BLA761530: LUMVOA (VELIGROTUG-VVZE) — VIRIDIAN THERAPEUTICS INC	fda 2026-06-26	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on July 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will "A global workspace in language models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-07-06	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.64	ProPS: Prompted Profile Synthesis for Natural Language-Conditioned Speaker Embedding Distributions	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	CanniUplift: A Holistic Framework for Mitigating Seller and Incentive Cannibalization in E-commerce Uplift Modeling	arxiv 2026-07-06	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	LLM for the development of FCM	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Strategic Buying Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_010 Agentic commerce will radically redistribute — not grow — the global commerce stack, severely affecting traditional software platforms, global payment processors, digital advertising networks, and physical logistics providers. Consumer delegation of pr... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	70%
0.64	EEG-SpikeAgent: Agentic Closed-Loop Program Synthesis for Automated EEG Spike Detection	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Training-Free Model Selection and Domain-Aware Score Calibration for First-Shot Anomalous Sound Detection	arxiv 2026-07-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Wan-Streamer v0.2: Higher Resolution, Same Latency	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	LLM-as-a-Tutor: Policy-Aware Prompt Adaptation for Non-Verifiable RL	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Decentralized Aggregation of LLM Predictions via Wagering Mechanisms	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	HiFA4: Training-Free 4-bit FlashAttention on Ascend HIF4 NPUs for LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.64	Agentic SABRE: An Uncertainty-Aware Neuro-Symbolic Multi-Agent Framework for Adaptive Ransomware Detection	arxiv 2026-07-05	247_053 AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	25%
0.64	Layer-Parallel Inference Reduces Encrypted Nonlinear Depth in Transformers	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Hierarchical Scaffolding Enables Human-Like Cognitive Selectivity under Data Scarcity	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	GlacierCastAI: Predicting Glacier Retreat from Multi-Modal Satellite Imagery and Climate Signals	arxiv 2026-07-05	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.64	Fidelity-Diversity Metrics for Text	arxiv 2026-07-06	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Spinning Straw into Gold: Relabeling LLM Agent Trajectories in Hindsight for Successful Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-07-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Spinning Straw into Gold: Relabeling LLM Agent Trajectories in Hindsight for Successful Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-07-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Closing the Reality Gap: Zero-Shot Sim-to-Real Deployment for Dexterous Force-Based Grasping and Manipulation	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.64	Spatial Attention: Adapting Execution Horizons for Diffusion Policies via Observation Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-07-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.64	Will Illinois' AI safety bill have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-07-08	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	16%
0.64	TILDE: TILt-based Distributional Erasure for Concept Unlearning	arxiv 2026-07-07	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	Auto-DSM Under the Lens: A Black-Box Evaluation Framework for LLM-Based DSM Generation	arxiv 2026-07-07	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.64	Unicode TAG-Block Concealment of Tool-Metadata Payloads in the Model Context Protocol: An Approval-View Fidelity Gap Across Three Independent Server Implementations	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Unicode TAG-Block Concealment of Tool-Metadata Payloads in the Model Context Protocol: An Approval-View Fidelity Gap Across Three Independent Server Implementations	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Physics-Regularized Machine Learning for Proprioceptive Vehicle Localization Using Onboard Sensors	arxiv 2026-07-06	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	Hierarchical Classification via Cascading Feature Elimination: Application to Human Phenotype Ontology-Aligned Facial Phenotyping (FaceMesh2HPO)	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.64	Is Domain Adaptation Always Helpful? A Frozen-Backbone Study of Cross-Domain Sentiment Transfer	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	More Convincing, Not More Correct: Self-Play Reward Hacking of Reference-Free LLM Judges	arxiv 2026-07-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Battery Management of Autonomous Order Pickers	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Deep Neural Variation Spaces: A Unifying Perspective on Depth and Complexity	arxiv 2026-07-06	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	OrchardBench: A Physically-Grounded, GPU-Parallel Apple-Orchard Simulation Benchmark for Agricultural Robotics	arxiv 2026-07-07	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.64	APVI-SLAM: Real-Time Acoustic-Pressure-Visual-Inertial Localization and Photorealistic Mapping System in Complex Underwater Environment	arxiv 2026-07-07	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.64	Intercepting an Agile Target with Net-Carrying Drones using Competitive Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	DexTele: A Dual-Arm Dexterous Teleoperation System Based on Motion Retargeting and Adaptive Force Control	arxiv 2026-07-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	FDA NDA213082: XELJANZ (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — PFIZER	fda 2026-06-30	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	240_038 Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans Jason Calacanis	Labor/Jobs	35%
0.64	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-05	INF_011 Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	92%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	China vs Japan Conflict before 2027?	manifold 2026-04-29	INF_037 An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	58%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $90K USD in May 2026?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.64	Will a real Scientologist trade on this market?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-25	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	16%
0.64	Will I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-04-23	238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	51%
0.64	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.64	10729150	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.64		gdelt 2026-04-30	AUT_011 Severe impending collision between capabilities of open autonomous systems and desires of global state actors to maintain control — emergence of 'compute licensing dystopias' where governments implement draconian surveillance over raw computational har... David Holz	Geopolitics	44%
0.64		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.64	google gives openai 20 billion reasons to worry 2000752324	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.64		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.64	meta stock drops company ramps 233826186.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.64	vig vs hdv growing income 155000719.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	29%
0.64	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.64	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of May 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-01	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 3?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 3?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	How many StackOverflow questions in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.64	Will SBF get back into crypto after being released?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-03	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	33%
0.64	Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.64	Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.64	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.64	FDA ANDA211022: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	FDA BLA125409: PERJETA (PERTUZUMAB) — GENENTECH	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.29.0	github_release 2026-03-17	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.29.0	github_release 2026-03-17	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.64	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.91.0	github_release 2026-04-07	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.87.0	github_release 2026-03-31	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.64	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.87.0	github_release 2026-03-31	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.64	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.87.0	github_release 2026-03-31	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v5.5.0	github_release 2026-04-02	229_045 Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v5.3.0	github_release 2026-03-04	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.64	Safety and accuracy follow different scaling laws in clinical large language models	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	Atomic Fact-Checking Increases Clinician Trust in Large Language Model Recommendations for Oncology Decision Support: A Randomized Controlled Trial	arxiv 2026-05-05	248_012 AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Steer Like the LLM: Activation Steering that Mimics Prompting	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Unifying Dynamical Systems and Graph Theory to Mechanistically Understand Computation in Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Learning to Theorize the World from Observation	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	VLMaxxing through FrameMogging Training-Free Anti-Recomputation for Video Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.64	Can AI Help You Get Over Your Breakup? One Session with a Belief-Reframing Chatbot Shows Sustained Distress Reduction	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	Bolek: A Multimodal Language Model for Molecular Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Perceptual Flow Network for Visually Grounded Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Uni-OPD: Unifying On-Policy Distillation with a Dual-Perspective Recipe	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	A-CODE: Fully Atomic Protein Co-Design with Unified Multimodal Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	A-CODE: Fully Atomic Protein Co-Design with Unified Multimodal Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.64	Will the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Impact European Electricity Prices? A GNN-Based Network Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Sparse Memory Finetuning as a Low-Forgetting Alternative to LoRA and Full Finetuning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	ParaRNN: An Interpretable and Parallelizable Recurrent Neural Network for Time-Dependent Data	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	TeamUp: Semantic Project Matching and Team Formation for Learning at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	Mapping Discourse Reframing: A Multi-Layer Network Approach to Italian HPV Vaccine Discourse on X (2010-2024)	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.64	A Systematic Benchmark of Machine Transliteration Models for the Tajik-Farsi Language Pair: A Comparative Study from Rule-Based to Transformer Architectures	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	ARGUS: Policy-Adaptive Ad Governance via Evolving Reinforcement with Adversarial Umpiring	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	EditPropBench: Measuring Factual Edit Propagation in Scientific Manuscripts	arxiv 2026-05-03	245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	80%
0.64	LiDAR Teach, Radar Repeat: Robust Cross-Modal Navigation in Degenerate and Varying Environments	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	FDA ANDA206863: DALFAMPRIDINE (DALFAMPRIDINE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-04-20	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA091655: ESCITALOPRAM OXALATE (ESCITALOPRAM OXALATE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-04-22	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA BLA761068: CRYSVITA (BUROSUMAB-TWZA) — KYOWA KIRIN	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will SPY be above 720.65 on market close May 8th?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	PSK at SemEval-2026 Task 9: Multilingual Polarization Detection Using Ensemble Gemma Models with Synthetic Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Why Geometric Continuity Emerges in Deep Neural Networks: Residual Connections and Rotational Symmetry Breaking	arxiv 2026-05-06	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	BenCSSmark: Making the Social Sciences Count in LLM Research	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	MedFabric and EtHER: A Data-Centric Framework for Word-Level Fabrication Generation and Detection in Medical LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Are LLMs Ready for Conflict Monitoring? Empirical Evidence from West Africa	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.64	FDA ANDA219473: CENOBAMATE (CENOBAMATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED	fda 2026-04-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	facebookresearch/faiss v1.7.4	github_release 2023-04-20	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.34	github_release 2026-01-23	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.24	github_release 2024-01-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	The Structural Origin of Attention Sink: Variance Discrepancy, Super Neurons, and Dimension Disparity	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Continuous Latent Diffusion Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	CoupleEvo: Evolving Heuristics for Coupled Optimization Problems Using Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Inference-Time Refinement Closes the Synthetic-Real Gap in Tabular Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Cumulative-Goodness Free-Riding in Forward-Forward Networks: Real, Repairable, but Not Accuracy-Dominant	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	In-Context Black-Box Optimization with Unreliable Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	TFM-Retouche: A Lightweight Input-Space Adapter for Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Hallucination as an Anomaly: Dynamic Intervention via Probabilistic Circuits	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	In Data or Invisible: Toward a Better Digital Representation of Low-Resource Languages with Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Why Global LLM Leaderboards Are Misleading: Small Portfolios for Heterogeneous Supervised ML	arxiv 2026-05-07	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	32%
0.64	DARTS: Targeting Prognostic Covariates in Budget-Constrained Sequential Experiments	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	SNAPO: Smooth Neural Adjoint Policy Optimization for Optimal Control via Differentiable Simulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	A Benchmark for Strategic Auditee Gaming Under Continuous Compliance Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei	Geopolitics	60%
0.64	Perceive, Route and Modulate: Dynamic Pattern Recalibration for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Federation of Experts: Communication Efficient Distributed Inference for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.64	Relay Buffer Independent Communication over Pooled HBM for Efficient MoE Inference on Ascend	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Uncertainty Estimation via Hyperspherical Confidence Mapping	arxiv 2026-05-07	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	MobileEgo Anywhere: Open Infrastructure for long horizon egocentric data on commodity hardware	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Decomposing the Basic Abilities of Large Language Models: Mitigating Cross-Task Interference in Multi-Task Instruct-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Negative Before Positive: Asymmetric Valence Processing in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	The Cost of Context: Mitigating Textual Bias in Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Nonsense Helps: Prompt Space Perturbation Broadens Reasoning Exploration	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Anatomy of a Query: W5H Dimensions and FAR Patterns for Text-to-SQL Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	BALAR : A Bayesian Agentic Loop for Active Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	AssistDLO: Assistive Teleoperation for Deformable Linear Object Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Conditional Flow-VAE for Safety-Critical Traffic Scenario Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Conditional Flow-VAE for Safety-Critical Traffic Scenario Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Frustrated Dynamics of Distance Matrices	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 12?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.64	Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley	Energy	46%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-09	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-12	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	Will I be able to build a bot that achieves #1 on the Gen 9 1v1 ladderboard on Pokemon Showdown before the end of 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-12	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.64	Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-13	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.64	A New Technique for AI Explainability using Feature Association Map	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Delay-Empowered Causal Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	TMRL: Diffusion Timestep-Modulated Pretraining Enables Exploration for Efficient Policy Finetuning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	PRISM: A Geometric Risk Bound that Decomposes Drift into Scale, Shape, and Head	arxiv 2026-05-12	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.64	Targeted Tests for LLM Reasoning: An Audit-Constrained Protocol	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.64	FDA NDA020515: ZOLADEX (GOSERELIN) — TERSERA	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027	macro_recession	30%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Toward AI-Driven Digital Twins for Metropolitan Floods: A Conditional Latent Dynamics Network Surrogate of the Shallow Water Equations	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	GHGbench: A Unified Multi-Entity, Multi-Task Benchmark for Carbon Emission Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Learning POMDP World Models from Observations with Language-Model Priors	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Achieving $ε^{-2}$ Sample Complexity for Single-Loop Actor-Critic under Minimal Assumptions	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	CO-MAP: A Reinforcement Learning Approach to the Qubit Allocation Problem	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	RealICU: Do LLM Agents Understand Long-Context ICU Data? A Benchmark Beyond Behavior Imitation	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.64	RealICU: Do LLM Agents Understand Long-Context ICU Data? A Benchmark Beyond Behavior Imitation	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Effective Context in Transformers: An Analysis of Fragmentation and Tokenization	arxiv 2026-05-13	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Discovery of Hidden Miscalibration Regimes	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Contextual Bandits for Resource-Constrained Devices using Probabilistic Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	KamonBench: A Grammar-Based Dataset for Evaluating Compositional Factor Recovery in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Physics Guided Generative Optimization for Trotter Suzuki Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	EMO: Frustratingly Easy Progressive Training of Extendable MoE	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	DP-Muon: Differentially Private Optimization via Matrix-Orthogonalized Momentum	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	Will these people be rank 1 in their province in the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Mathematical Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Octopus: History-Free Gradient Orthogonalization for Continual Learning in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	TILBench: A Systematic Benchmark for Tabular Imbalanced Learning Across Data Regimes	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Temporal Fair Division in Multi-Agent Systems: From Precise Alternation Metrics to Scalable Coordination Proxies	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Crys-JEPA: Accelerating Crystal Discovery via Embedding Screening and Generative Refinement	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	NeuroAtlas: Benchmarking Foundation Models for Clinical EEG and Brain-Computer Interfaces	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	Discovering Physical Directions in Weight Space: Composing Neural PDE Experts	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	A Novel Schur-Decomposition-Based Weight Projection Method for Stable State-Space Neural-Network Architectures	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Collaborative Yet Personalized Policy Training: Single-Timescale Federated Actor-Critic	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Collaborative Yet Personalized Policy Training: Single-Timescale Federated Actor-Critic	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Quantum Advantage in Multi Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.64	ProtoMedAgent: Multimodal Clinical Interpretability via Privacy-Aware Agentic Workflows	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in September?	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	FDA NDA210308: YONSA (ABIRATERONE ACETATE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-05-13	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will SPY close above $750 on Monday, May 18, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Solana dip to $60 in May?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-16	247_056 Net job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going away Alex Wissner-Gross	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.64	Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 19?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 19?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Generalized Functional ANOVA in Closed-Form: A Unified View of Additive Explanations	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Are Sparse Autoencoder Benchmarks Reliable?	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	A Simplex Witness Certificate for Constant Collapse in Variational Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Foundation Models for Credit Risk Prediction: A Game Changer?	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.64	SAS: Semantic-aware Sampling for Generative Dataset Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Enhancing the Code Reasoning Capabilities of LLMs via Consistency-based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.64	Enhancing the Code Reasoning Capabilities of LLMs via Consistency-based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Agentic Cost-Aware Query Planning with Knowledge Distillation for Big Data Analytics	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	AURORA: Contextual Orthogonalization for Geometric Representation Learning in Healthcare Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Testable and Actionable Calibration for Full Swap Regret	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will anyone beat the 281.85 wpm Monkeytype English 60 record before 2027?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-28	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.64	Will Google Trends add "The Moon" as an selectable geographic location before January 1, 2028?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-25	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.64	Persona Conditioning of Brand Recommendations in Retrieval-Augmented Commercial Chat: A Prominence-Stratified Cross-Provider Audit	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	PokerSkill: LLMs Can Play Expert-Level Poker without Training or Solvers	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	REPOT: Recoverable Program-of-Thought via Checkpoint Repair	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Alignment-Guided Score Matching for Text-to-Image Alignment in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	RAISE: RAG Design as an Architecture Search Problem	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Make LLM Learn to Synthesize from Streaming Experiences through Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	On the Geometry of Games and their Solvers	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Selection Hyper-heuristics Can Automatically Adjust the Learning Period to Optimally Solve Pseudo-Boolean Problems	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.64	LaRA: Layer-wise Representation Analysis for Detecting Data Contamination in RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Quantifying and Optimizing Simplicity via Polynomial Representations	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	LLM-Evolved Domain-Independent Heuristics for Symbolic AI Planning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	DLM-SWAI: Steering Diffusion Language Models Before They Unmask	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	PhoneWorld: Scaling Phone-Use Agent Environments	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	DynaFLIP: Rethinking Robotics Perception via Tri-Modal-Dynamics Guided Representation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	When, why, and how do diffusion posterior samplers fail? A finite-sample lens	arxiv 2026-05-28	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.64	Mean-Field Diffuser: Scaling Offline MARL to Thousands of Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	When Do Graph Foundation Models Transfer? A Data-Centric Theory	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Bastion: Budget-Aware Speculative Decoding with Tree-structured Block Diffusion Drafting	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.64	Momentum Based Reward Design for Low Emission Traffic Signal Control	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Matching Rates and Optimal Allocation for Federated Probe-Logit Distillation under Heterogeneous Bandwidth Budgets	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	K-FinHallu: A Hallucination Detection Benchmark for Multi-Turn RAG in Korean Finance	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.64	When Does Persona Prompting Actually Help? A Retrieval and Metric Analysis of Expert Role Injection in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	When Does Persona Prompting Actually Help? A Retrieval and Metric Analysis of Expert Role Injection in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	GrepSeek: Training Search Agents for Direct Corpus Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	VideoFDB: Evaluating Full-Duplex Vision-Speech Capabilities in Conversational Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.64	SafeRx-Agent: A Knowledge-Grounded Multi-Agent Framework for Safe and Explainable Medication Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-27	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Gaze2Act: Gaze-Conditioned Vision-Language-Action Policies for Interactive Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	Multi-Resolution End-to-End Deep Neural Network for Optimizing Latency-Accuracy Tradeoff in Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-05-27	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.64	FDA ANDA210040: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — AMNEAL PHARMS	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.38.0	github_release 2026-05-21	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.64	Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	FDA BLA761354: TOFIDENCE (TOCILIZUMAB-BAVI) — BIOGEN MA	fda 2026-05-22	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.40.0	github_release 2026-06-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will there be any news about another assassination attempt on Donald Trump this month?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-02	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.64	Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Permissive Safety Through Trusted Inference: Verifiable Belief-Space Neural Safety Filters for Assured Interactive Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_029 Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars. Brett Adcock	Robotics	33%
0.64	Moment-Video: Diagnosing Temporal Fidelity of Video MLLMs on Momentary Visual Events	arxiv 2026-06-01	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.64	Coordination Graphs for Constrained Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Faster Synchronous On-Policy RL via Straggler-Aware Group Sizing	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.64	Network Distributed Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Consensus Control of Quadcopters	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	LALE: Lightweight-Transformer Architecture for Land-Cover Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Where Do Deep-Research Agents Go Wrong? Span-Level Error Localization in Agent Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	KliniskVestBERT: BERT Model Specialised to Norwegian Clinical Texts	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Evaluation of Baseline Methods for IDD-based SSD External Memory Search	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	RoleCDE:Benchmarking and Mitigating Role-Alignment Trade-offs in Role-Playing Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Emergent Transfer of a Physics Foundation Model from Simulation to Laboratory Turbulence	arxiv 2026-05-31	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.64	Riemannian Gradient Descent for Low-Rank Architectures	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Closing the Alignment-Maturity Gap in Federated Prototype Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	A Theoretical Framework for Self-Play Theorem Proving Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Adaptive Sharpness-Aware Minimization with a Polyak-type Step size: A Theory-Grounded Scheduler	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Decentralized Instruction Tuning: Conflict-Aware Splitting and Weight Merging	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	MPMWorlds: Material-Point-Method Simulations for Inferring and Extrapolating Physical Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Encoded but Not Routed: Explaining the Table-Chart Gap in Scientific Claim Verification	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	Learning from Saturated Data: Signals Beyond Correctness for LLM Training	arxiv 2026-05-31	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	TECCI: Tricky Edits of Collected and Curated Images	arxiv 2026-05-31	235_036 AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.64	Implicit Geographic Inference in LLM Medical Triage: Language-Driven Disparities in Emergency Recommendations	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.64	CA-BED: Conversation-Aware Bayesian Experimental Design	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	MiCU: End-to-End Smart Home Command Understanding with Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-31	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	ExpWeaver: LLM Agents Learn from Experience via Latent RAG	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	MLLM-Microscope: Unlocking Hidden Structure Within Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-30	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.64	FDA ANDA201749: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA NDA022180: FERAHEME (FERUMOXYTOL) — AZURITY	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.2	github_release 2019-06-14	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.64	Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will CD Real Tomayapo vs. Club ABB end in a draw?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.64	FDA BLA022472: AFREZZA (INSULIN RECOMBINANT HUMAN) — MANNKIND	fda 2026-05-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.64	Will May 2026 US average hourly earnings rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Code2LoRA: Hypernetwork-Generated Adapters for Code Language Models under Software Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_026 Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, not where they are today' — 'this is the worst the models will ever be'. Next-generation models will 'eat your scaffolding for breakfast'; manual software configuration, standar... Kevin Weil	Labor/Jobs	61%
0.64	Goedel-Architect: Streamlining Formal Theorem Proving with Blueprint Generation and Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.64	To Be Multimodal or Not to Be: Query-Adaptive Audio-Visual Person Retrieval via Active Modality Detection	arxiv 2026-06-04	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.64	Deciphering Two Training Clocks in Grokking via Deep Linear Network Theory with Conditional ReLU Reduction	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	LongSpace: Exploring Long-Horizon Spatial Memory from Perception to Recall in Video	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	SlotGCG: Exploiting the Positional Vulnerability in LLMs for Jailbreak Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Event Detection for Parameter-to-KPI Dependency Learning for AI-RAN	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	3D Underwater Path Planning via Generative Flow Field Surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Adaptive Learning Rates with Surrogate Probability for Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Adaptive Learning Rates with Surrogate Probability for Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Revisiting Prototype Rehearsal for Exemplar-Free Continual Learning: Manifold-Aware Boundary Sampling with Adaptive Class-Balanced Loss	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Uncovering Extreme Event Mechanisms for Prediction and Control with Sensitivity-Balanced Projections	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.64	Uncovering Extreme Event Mechanisms for Prediction and Control with Sensitivity-Balanced Projections	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Pattern Selectivity is Not Task-Causal Structure: A Cross-Architecture Mechanistic Study of Composed-Task Circuits in 1B-Class Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	Rethinking LoRA Memory Through the Lens of KV Cache Compression	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Using Large Language Models to Support High Volume Application Review for an Undergraduate Research Program	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	MotionDisco: Motion Discovery for Extreme Humanoid Loco-Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Towards Realistic 3D Sonar Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Potential-Guided Flow Matching for Vision-Language-Action Policy Improvement	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	COP-Q: Safety-First Reinforcement Learning for Robot Control via Cholesky-Ordered Projection	arxiv 2026-06-03	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.64	facebookresearch/differentiable-robot-model v0.2.1	github_release 2022-02-15	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	facebookresearch/differentiable-robot-model v0.2.1	github_release 2022-02-15	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.64	Native3D: End-to-End 3D Scene Generation via Unified Mesh-Texture Modeling and Semantic Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	A Geometric View for Understanding Concept Learning and Neuron Interpretation in Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Workflow-to-Skill: Skill Creation via Routing-Workflow-Semantics-Attachments Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	RhinoVLA Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Learning Explicit Behavioral Models with Adaptive Questions and World-Model Probes	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	RASFT: Rollout-Adaptive Supervised Fine-Tuning for Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	mmPISA-bench: Do LLMs Reason Equally Well Across 43 Languages?	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.64	QuadVerse: An Integrated Framework Aligning Visual-Physical Reality for Quadruped Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Task Editing for Generalizable 3D Visuomotor Policy Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	T-GMP: Terrain-conditioned Generative Motion Priors for Versatile and Natural Humanoid Locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will May 2026 U.S. real disposable personal income rise at least 0.2% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-06	AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	13%
0.64	MeCo: One-Step MeanFlow-based Corrector for Multi-Channel Speech Separation	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	FMplex: Model Virtualization for Serving Extensible Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	SecureClaw: Clawing Back Control of LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Leveraging Structural Constraints for Diffusion-based Neural TSP Solvers	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Reliable to Expressive: A Curriculum for Rubric-Following Safety Judges	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	A Regret Minimization Framework on Preference Learning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.64	Stage-1 Controls the Entropy Regime, Not the Outcome	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.64	BareWave: Waveform-Native Flow-Matching Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	TRIAGE: Dialectical Reasoning for Explainable Risk Prediction on Irregularly Sampled Medical Time Series with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.64	SafeRun: Enabling Determinism in LLM Planning for Running	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	From Statute to Control Flow: Span-Grounded Deontic Trees for Defeasible Scope Parsing	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei	Geopolitics	60%
0.64	Can the Environment Speak for Itself? $T^{2}$-GRPO: A Turn-Trajectory Group Relative Policy Optimization for Caregiver Agents	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	The Injection Paradox: Brand-Level Suppression in Safety-Trained LLM Recommendations via RAG Context Injection	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.64	Stabilizing On-Policy Distillation for MLLM Reasoning with Global Normalization	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Decoy-Calibrated Failure Audits for Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Heterophily-Aware Adaptive Knowledge Distillation for Hypergraph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Fourier Neural Operators with rank-1 lattice points and hyperbolic cross	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Titans-as-a-Layer: Test-Time Memory for Conversational Speech Emotion Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	EinSort: Sorting is All We Need for Tensorizing LLM	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Multi-Hop Knowledge Composition is Bound by Pretraining Exposure	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	CRANE: Knowledge Editing for Reasoning MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Beyond Averages: Evaluating LLMs on Human Survey Replication at the Distributional Level	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	Analyzing the Correlation Between Hallucinations and Knowledge Conflicts in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Ishigaki-IDS: An Open-Weight Verifier-Aware Model for Information Delivery Specification Drafting in Building Information Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Auditing Proprietary Alignment in Large Language Models: A Comparative Framework Without a Ground-Truth Standard	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	ReGIL: Retrieval-Guided Imitation Learning from a Single Demonstration	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	Back to the Familiar Future: Failure Recovery for VLA Policies via Pre-Imagined Milestone Selection	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.64	Language as a Sensor: Calibrated Spatial Belief Estimation in 3D Scenes from Natural Language	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Towards End to End Motion Planning and Execution for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles Using Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Provenance-Grounded Gating and Adaptive Recovery in Synthetic Post-Training Data Curation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Designed by Journalists, but Is It for Readers? Rethinking AI Disclosures and Transparency in News	arxiv 2026-06-09	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Fast and Highly Expressive Policy Learning for Offline Reinforcement Learning via Bootstrapped Flow Q-Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Flexible Flows for Biological Sequence Design	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	A complementary study on PlanGPT: Evaluation with defined Performance Metrics and comparison with a planner	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Baseline-Free Policy Optimization for Neural Combinatorial Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Fast Exact Nearest-Neighbor Learning for High-Frequency Financial Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.64	A Source Domain is All You Need: Source-Only Cross-OS Transfer Learning for APT Anomaly Detection via Semantic Alignment and Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	A Source Domain is All You Need: Source-Only Cross-OS Transfer Learning for APT Anomaly Detection via Semantic Alignment and Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	From Senses to Decisions: The Information Flow of Auditory and Visual Perception in Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	From Senses to Decisions: The Information Flow of Auditory and Visual Perception in Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	FedSteer: Taming Extreme Gradient Staleness in Federated Learning with Corrective Projections and Caching	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	When to Align, When to Predict: A Phase Diagram for Multimodal Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	MemVenom: Triggered Poisoning of Multimodal Memories in Web Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Do LLMsMakeNeural Distinguishers Wise?	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.64	PL-KKT-hPINN: Enforcing Nonlinear Equality Constraints on Neural Networks via Piecewise-Linear Projection	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.64	Geometry-Aware Reinforcement Learning for 2D Irregular Nesting	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Representation-Aware Advantage Estimation: Your Reward Model Provides More Than A Scalar Output	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Parallel Causal Associative Fields: Gated Sparse Memory for Long-Context Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	The Order Matters: Sequential Fine-Tuning of LLaMA for Coherent Automated Essay Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	When Design Rules Break: Benchmark Composition Determines Whether Label Informativeness Predicts GNN Aggregator Choice	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.64	SARM2: Multi-Task Stage Aware Reward Modeling for Self Improving Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Locomotion analysis of a quadruped interacting with the lunar granular surface	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.64	Robotic Nonprehensile Object Transportation with a Hanging Tray	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	VIA-SD: Verification via Intra-Model Routing for Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Towards Data-free and Training-free Compression for Speech Foundation Models Using Parameter Clustering	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.64	The Power of Test-Time Training for Approximate Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Steering Where to Listen: Instruction-Based Activation Steering Redirects Temporal Attention in Large Audio-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	When Probing Accuracy Saturates, Fragility Resolves: A Complementary Metric for LLM Pre-Training Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Beyond Dark Knowledge: Mixup-Based Distillation for Reliable Predictions	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	A Riemannian Approach to Low-Rank Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Phase Transitions in Attention: A Bayesian Theory of Copy Head Emergence	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	RePAIR: Predictive Self-Supervised Representation Learning in Chess	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Parameter-Efficient Adapter Tuning for Tabular-Image Multimodal Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	FlexiBrain: Resolution-Agnostic Voxel-Level Encoding for Native fMRI	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Mahalanobis-Guided Latent OOD Detection for Hybrid ES-DRL Control in Time-Varying Systems	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Beyond Third-Person Audits: Situated Interaction Auditing for User-Centered LLM Bias Research	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Gumbel-BEARD: Automatic Layer Selection for Self-Supervised Adaptation of Whisper in Low-Resource Domains	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	World Pilot: Steering Vision-Language-Action Models with World-Action Priors	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.64	SAFER-Nav: Enhancing Safety for Visual Robot Navigation via Segmentation-Aware Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.64	Cross-Modal Benchmarking for Robotic Perception in Natural Environments	arxiv 2026-06-10	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	FDA BLA761089: AJOVY (FREMANEZUMAB-VFRM) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA NDA203985: AFINITOR DISPERZ (EVEROLIMUS) — NOVARTIS PHARM	fda 2026-06-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	What will happen before election day for the 2026 midterms? [Add Answers] (Please ensure you read the rules)	manifold 2026-06-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Beyond the Commitment Boundary: Probing Epiphenomenal Chain-of-Thought in Large Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Is It You or Your Environment? A Bayesian Inference Framework for Genomically-Anchored Personalized Physiological Interpretation	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.64	PolyFlow: Safe and Efficient Polytope-Constrained Flow Matching with Constraint Embedding and Projection-free Update	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Bridging Modal Isolation in Interleaved Thinking: Supervising Modality Transitions via Stepwise Reinforcement	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Prefill Awareness in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Optical Implementation of Equilibrium Propagation Using Spatial Photonic Ising Machines	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	Foundations of Practical Quantum Advantage in Quantum-Informed Machine Learning for Predicting Chaos	arxiv 2026-06-11	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.64	Clipping Makes Distributed and Federated Asynchronous SGD Robust to Stragglers	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	WHAR Arena: Benchmarking the State of the Art in Efficient Wearable Human Activity Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-11	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	An Extensible and Lightweight Unified Architecture for Demosaicing Pixel-bin Image Sensors	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Deep Sleep Classification via EEG Signal Criticality: A Passive BCI Approach for Sleep-Improvement Neurofeedback	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.64	Predicting Cognitive Load from Speech and Interaction Dynamics in Dyadic Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Crossing the Validation Crisis: Cross-Validation Reduces Benchmarking Variance Surprisingly Well	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Operads for compositional reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Beyond Uniform Tokens: Adaptive Compression for Time Series Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	EvoBrowseComp: Benchmarking Search Agents on Evolving Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Does AI Reviewer See the Full Picture? Attacking and Defending Multimodal Peer Review	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Observable Patterns Are Not Explanations: A Causal-Geometric Analysis of Latent Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	RoboProcessBench: Benchmarking Process-Aware Understanding in Vision-Language Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	AIR-VLA+: Decoupling Movement and Manipulation via Cascaded Dual-Action Decoders with Asymmetric MoE for Aerial Robots	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	SemanticXR: Low Power and Real-time Queryable Semantic Mapping with an Object-Level Device-Cloud Architecture	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	By EOY 2030, what will happen with Google/UCSD’s retired-phone low-carbon computing project?	manifold 2026-06-13	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-13	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%