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114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 62 of 222, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.63 | Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_021 Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.63 | Will Apple announce the M5 Mac mini during the WWDC Keynote?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 237_004 Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. Peter Diamandis | Consumer | 55% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-05 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the S&P500 be down greater than 1% in a week?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.63 | 30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | 30% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-08 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.63 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.63 | Will it rain at manifest 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | ||
| 0.63 | Will this market get between 10-20 unique traders by June 20?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-22 | CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Compute | 42% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | robotaxi_deployment | 30% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Cowork be added to the Claude iOS app on June 26, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | |
| 0.63 | Will I work 9/9/6 for the rest of 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-29 | SEM_029 Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. Nvidia | Semis/Products | 79% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-30 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | Standing seats on regular commercial flights by end of 2027?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-07-05 | 242_019 EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 50% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-07-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.63 | Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.63 | Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 243_003 By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.63 | Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 229_019 Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 30% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 232_048 Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Bitcoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.63 | Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.63 | Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 23% | |
| 0.63 | Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.63 | Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.63 | will [redacted] occur as of saturday(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.63 | Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | ||
| 0.63 | US x China tariff agreement by May 31st? [Polymarket](market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I be promoted to Mana Gold by 12 am May 31, 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-12 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% |