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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 England?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 England?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Mexico vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 England?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Mexico vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Corners(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Morocco?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Bogota: Facundo Mena vs Alafia Ayeni(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 8?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 241_024 Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed Eric Schmidt | Space | 54% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Newport: Momoko Kobori vs Elizabeth Mandlik(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-07-08 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.55 | Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-04 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: GTZ Esports vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Chirayu Rana sued?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin | AI | 39% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 236_025 Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes Andrew Yang | Real Estate | 42% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Santos: Santiago De La Fuente vs Franco Roncadelli(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by May 15?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.55 | San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by May 7?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Barcząca Esports vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock | AI | 77% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.55 | Santos: Luis Guto Miguel vs Juan Manuel La Serna(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-02-17 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.55 | Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.55 | UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Viktorija Golubic vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis | AI | 54% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | ||
| 0.55 | Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Paris: Diane Parry vs Chloe Paquet(market prob: 58%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Shifters vs Galions - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.55 | Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | ||
| 0.55 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-02 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Parma: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2025-08-17 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis | AI | 54% | |
| 0.55 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.55 | San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Tyler: Braden Shick vs Aidan Mayo(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Barcelona vs. CB Murcia(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Joventut vs. Saski Baskonia(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by June 22?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 10% | |
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | ITF Decatur: Ena Koike vs Ana Grubor(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Will Alec Pierce be traded?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.55 | Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.55 | UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-01-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.55 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.55 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.55 | Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | |
| 0.55 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-22 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ta'Niya Latson win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.55 | New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 28% | |
| 0.55 | Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.55 | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.55 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.55 | Will Arnold Allen fight Alexander Volkanovski next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-02 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Spain?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.55 | Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.55 | ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will Bubba Chandler win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria?(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Ecuador?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Ecuador?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Ecuador?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Ecuador?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Ecuador?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Ecuador?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Ecuador?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs MAGICOS - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 248_015 Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Milan: Completed Match: Marco Cecchinato vs Raul Brancaccio(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | |
| 0.55 | Israeli forces enter Beirut by July 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Milan: Completed Match: Elmer Moeller vs Pierluigi Basile(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Croatia?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advance(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | ITF San Diego: Krisha Mahendran vs Anya Arora(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Norway?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Mexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 0.5(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Mexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 2.5(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.55 | Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 1.5(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-3.5)(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Morocco?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-07-06 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Morocco?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Morocco?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% |