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114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 56 of 56, 51 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | At the end of 2036, will the UK have routinely unarmed police officers?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 232_020 Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 48% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Israel win the public vote at Eurovision 2026(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 55% | |
| 0.55 | Will Israel win the public vote at Eurovision 2026(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.55 | Will Israel win the public vote at Eurovision 2026(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-14 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 231_029 Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. Dave Blundin | Other | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 242_016 TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-18 | COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | Macro/Economy | 54% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-26 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-25 | COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-04 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Ryan Strophy get a girlfriend by the end of June?(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will iran and usa stop the war permanent on 31.juni(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 244_004 Race car driving will persist as a sport Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-06 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the SSPX catholics incur excommunications in 2026?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Will England reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in 2027 or 2028?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-14 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.55 | Will trump ever leave office ?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 248_025 Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 10?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Will Messi score more goals than at least 5 teams today?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 35% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-27 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Manuel Adorni leave the Argentine government before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | |
| 0.55 | Will Manuel Adorni leave the Argentine government before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | ai_regulatory_pause | 5% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | ||
| 0.55 | Will a meteor hit earth tomorrow?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 231_014 Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Will England make Semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | 2026 World Cup R32: Will France beat Sweden by 2 goals?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-07-01 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin | Media/Ads | 32% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the USA score 2 or more goals vs Belgium?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-07-03 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-07-05 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.55 | Will any senator die within July?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-07-05 | 230_026 The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe. Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% |