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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-13 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.61 | Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will my color-based web game exceed 100 users in a single day?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-16 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | ||
| 0.61 | pltr up in 1 month(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator) | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-19 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Do you like 62% odds?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg | Labor/Jobs | 22% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Maine join the EU before 2060?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-23 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the linked Aella market resolve YES?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Alex Bores run for Congress in 2028?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.61 | Free Lottery (radiation domination end)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis | Space | 37% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-26 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-27 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Do you like 34% odds?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.61 | 👥 Will this MARKET have UNDER 10^2 TRADERS by the end of AUGUST? ⏳(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2030?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 33% | |
| 0.61 | Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2030?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | CMQ_003 By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 23% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 230_043 The economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobsters) in a 'crypto dystopia'. Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 36% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-07-05 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.61 | Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-07-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will there be famine in Russia before 2029?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-07-05 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-26 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 248_047 Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.60 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 61% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | Will GameStop buy / aquire eBay until end of 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | robotaxi_deployment | 30% | ||
| 0.60 | Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I attend Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Apple stop selling the $599 MacBook Neo SKU before the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 237_004 Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. Peter Diamandis | Consumer | 55% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-11 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 21, 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in May 2026?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | If the Googlebook is launched, will it still be available a year later?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_015 Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip 🎉(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_044 Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Chainlink go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Claude 5 released by End of September 2026?(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brent crude futures close above $110 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | Will a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Will TSLA close below $400 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-27 | S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026 | macro_recession | 20% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Sydney Metro exceed 70,000,000 trips taken in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 35% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-03 | CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis) | Robotics | 41% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I comment on this market? [Creator won't bet](market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-04 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% |