Validations Queue
111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 35 of 219, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.66 | Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.66 | Bitcoin $60k in June?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 232_034 Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. Ben Horowitz | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 39% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis | Space | 18% | ||
| 0.66 | [Short Fuse] Will Anthropi reset Max users' limit in the next 7 days?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.66 | Will SpaceX stock crash and close below $100 this year?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.66 | Putin, Xi Jinping, or Kim Jong Un out by 2028(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin be at or above 75k at the end of the month?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. Peter Diamandis | Space | 79% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.66 | Will I make IMO in 2028(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.66 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | |
| 0.66 | Will SPY close above $737.62 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.66 | Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.66 | Situational Awareness LP Q1 13F holdings public by May 24?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.66 | US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | 75% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.66 | Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-13 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 234_046 AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Polymarket refund a million dollars on any market before 2028?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-22 | SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.66 | Will the US be at full employment in December 2026?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | |
| 0.66 | SpaceX pivots away from xAI(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 240_027 SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 74% | |
| 0.66 | Will I work 9/9/6 for the rest of 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 230_035 GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 32% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 35% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-07-06 | COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack | Geopolitics | 40% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.66 | S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.66 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-06 | SPC_023 Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... Sam Altman | AI | 18% | ||
| 0.66 | Will SpaceX launch a rocket in the next 24h?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% |