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111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 25 of 60, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: United States (-2.5)(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.60 | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Egypt (-4.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Egypt (-1.5)(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria?(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Ecuador?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Ecuador?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs 9z (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | England leading at halftime?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 3.5(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.60 | United States vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Russia enter Khatnie by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.60 | Will Matt Olson win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-22 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Pistons (-10.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 234_043 Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value Alex Wissner-Gross | Education | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-03-02 | SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley | Space | 60% | ||
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2025-09-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 232_059 Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.60 | Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | |
| 0.60 | Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | |
| 0.60 | Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.60 | Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.60 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.60 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | INF_011 Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 92% | ||
| 0.60 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.60 | Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Trump Leave China on May 15?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haotong Li win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Solana dip to $60 in May?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Jakob Glesnes win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will SINNERS win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.60 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 6?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Syria leading at halftime?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-20 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Canada (-3.5)(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.60 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.60 | Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.60 | Spread: Brazil (-2.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | |
| 0.60 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Starmer out by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: United States (-1.5)(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Iran reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will England win on 2026-07-01?(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: United States (-2.5)(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.60 | Will LeBron James play for the Utah Jazz in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will England win on 2026-07-05?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | China x Japan military clash before 2027?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-11-17 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 5?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Mexico (-2.5)(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: United States (-1.5)(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: United States (-2.5)(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: United States (-5.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-07-01 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | ||
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will England win on 2026-07-11?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.60 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-09 | FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-25 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.60 | Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.60 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-01-13 | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). Peter Diamandis | Space | 11% | |
| 0.60 | Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-03-18 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2025-09-15 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Starmer out by May 19, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.60 | Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | INF_002 By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.60 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-02-13 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). Peter Diamandis | Space | 11% | |
| 0.60 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 34% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-12-04 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-07-11 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will FC Universitario win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Solana dip to $60 in June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.60 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 6?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 58%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 28% | |
| 0.60 | Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.60 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-26 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Kyler Murray be traded?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.60 | Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Tom Kim win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Brazil (-4.5)(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Canada (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Cuban regime falls in 2026?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-03-10 | CMQ_061 Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt. Mark Cuban | Crypto | 4% | |
| 0.60 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Starmer out by June 26, 2026?(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | Starmer out by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Senegal (-1.5)(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Croatia (-1.5)(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Japan (-1.5)(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Solana dip to $20 in June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Egypt (-4.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Egypt (-1.5)(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Brazil (-2.5)(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Ecuador?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Ecuador?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Ecuador?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Ecuador?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: United States (-1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.60 | Will Belgium be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Algeria?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Algeria?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-07-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Mexico vs. England: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | United States vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-07-01 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | ||
| 0.60 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | |
| 0.60 | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% |