Validations Queue

111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 25 of 60, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60
Spread: Egypt (-4.5)(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-06-17
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-26
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)(market prob: 17%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-25
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets45%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-12
247_006
Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026
Peter Diamandis
AI50%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-27
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-13
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-26
235_006
By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-09
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-01
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-09
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-01
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 7%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-29
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets45%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-25
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 3.5(market prob: 32%)
polymarket
2026-07-03
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-14
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-27
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-26
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-12
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-07
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-07
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-22
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-04-28
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
234_043
Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value
Alex Wissner-Gross
Education35%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
236_036
Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy35%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-09
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
235_017
OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks48%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-02
SPC_001
The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape.
Morgan Stanley
Space60%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-07
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
242_010
By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics
Dave Blundin
AI36%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-31
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-09
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-24
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-14
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-02-16
232_059
Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy34%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-29
IND_021
February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte...
Jack Dorsey
Labor/Jobs74%
0.60polymarket
2025-10-09
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-29
IND_021
February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte...
Jack Dorsey
Labor/Jobs74%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-29
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-08
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-30
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-30
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-12
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
242_010
By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics
Dave Blundin
AI36%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-22
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-12
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
232_006
YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content.
Peter Diamandis
Media/Ads51%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-22
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-22
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-23
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-08
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-01
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2025-10-09
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-04
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-16
INF_011
Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets.
Morgan Stanley
Macro/Economy92%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-02
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-08
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60
Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-12
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.60
Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-05-10
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-10
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-02
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-04
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-06
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60
Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 42%)
polymarket
2026-05-08
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-13
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-08
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60
Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-04
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
242_037
China will land on the moon before end of 2030
China (government)
Space37%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-10
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-10
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-04
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-13
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.60
O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 62%)
polymarket
2026-04-25
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-01
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-24
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2026-02-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-26
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-26
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-08
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-05
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-03
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets45%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5(market prob: 54%)
polymarket
2026-06-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5(market prob: 59%)
polymarket
2026-06-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-30
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60
O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-13
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-09
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-13
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-06-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-13
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-20
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-05
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-05
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-06-11
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60
Spread: Canada (-3.5)(market prob: 14%)
polymarket
2026-06-12
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)(market prob: 16%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-13
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-19
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-17
229_027
Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today.
Brett Adcock
Geopolitics41%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-01
COD_SPC_003
SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Space28%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-10
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.60
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)(market prob: 38%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
SPC_028
Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles.
Salim Ismail
Labor/Jobs37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-18
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-18
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-19
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60
Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-06-23
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-27
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60
Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 25%)
polymarket
2026-06-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-09
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-22
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-01
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-27
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-09
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)(market prob: 24%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-31
235_042
OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks39%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 13%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-17
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-04
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-03
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-04
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5(market prob: 55%)
polymarket
2026-07-03
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)(market prob: 3%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-04
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-08
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-01
COD_SPC_003
SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Space28%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-12
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-24
INF_039
Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v...
Alex Finn
Consumer77%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-09
FUT_002
Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali...
Superforecaster Community
AI40%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-24
SPC_028
Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles.
Salim Ismail
Labor/Jobs37%
0.60polymarket
2026-02-25
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-25
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
236_036
Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy35%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
236_036
Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy35%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
236_036
Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy35%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
247_003
Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
235_017
OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks48%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
235_017
OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks48%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-03
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
235_017
OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks48%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-16
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-17
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-03
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-28
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-19
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-16
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-13
246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).
Peter Diamandis
Space11%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-28
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
AUT_024
H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int...
Morgan Stanley
AI42%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-05
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-18
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 39%)
polymarket
2026-05-07
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-15
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-21
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-07
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-17
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-13
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-17
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-13
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-28
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-04
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-23
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-12
INF_002
By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Geopolitics30%
0.60polymarket
2026-02-13
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
232_006
YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content.
Peter Diamandis
Media/Ads51%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-23
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-18
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-02
246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).
Peter Diamandis
Space11%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-02
COD_SPC_001
Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing
Codex Research Pack
Space44%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
SPC_009
Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space39%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-29
242_005
Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)
Peter Diamandis
Space34%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-26
232_006
YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content.
Peter Diamandis
Media/Ads51%
0.60polymarket
2025-10-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-04
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-08
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.60polymarket
2025-10-09
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-07
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-27
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-11
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-23
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-26
246_030
DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks34%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-01
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.60
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-06-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-30
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.60
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-06-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-05
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-31
235_041
Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks28%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-27
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-10
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-10
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-08
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 48%)
polymarket
2026-06-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-06-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-26
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-16
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-02-26
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-11
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-07
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-11
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-08
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 42%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)(market prob: 17%)
polymarket
2026-06-13
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-13
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-13
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-26
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-19
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 54%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-11
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets45%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60
Spread: Canada (-1.5)(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60
Cuban regime falls in 2026?(market prob: 18%)
polymarket
2026-03-10
CMQ_061
Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt.
Mark Cuban
Crypto4%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-12
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-15
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-01
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60
Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-06-15
SEM_003
Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Energy/Compute86%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
SPC_028
Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles.
Salim Ismail
Labor/Jobs37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-19
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-20
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-20
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
SPC_028
Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles.
Salim Ismail
Labor/Jobs37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-12
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-01
COD_SPC_003
SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Space28%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
SPC_028
Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles.
Salim Ismail
Labor/Jobs37%
0.60
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)(market prob: 14%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)(market prob: 43%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60
Spread: Japan (-1.5)(market prob: 23%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2028
First $1T+ IPO in 2028
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-19
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60
Spread: Egypt (-4.5)(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-06-17
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)(market prob: 17%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-26
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)(market prob: 12%)
polymarket
2026-06-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-01
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-30
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-27
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-03
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-01
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-01
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals(market prob: 44%)
polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 13%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-04
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-01
IND_016
By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space27%
0.60
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-07-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-06
COD_SPC_003
SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Space28%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-06
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.60polymarket
2026-07-06
S_MARS_2028
Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)
mars_uncrewed_landing50%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-23
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%