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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-05	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.70	Agent Memory: Characterization and System Implications of Stateful Long-Horizon Workloads	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Beyond Similarity: Trustworthy Memory Search for Personal AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.70	Towards World Models in Biomedical Research	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.70	LadderMan: Learning Humanoid Perceptive Ladder Climbing	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Individual Gain, Collective Loss: Metacognitive Adaptation in AI-Assisted Creativity	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.70	Beyond tokens: a unified framework for latent communication in LLM-based multi-agent systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	DuDi: Dual-Signal Distillation with Cross-Lingual Verbalizer	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	RealDexUMI: A Wearable Universal Manipulation Interface for Dexterous Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	A New Quaternion-Joint Cable-Driven Redundant Manipulator Configuration and its Control Through FABRIK and Residual Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.107.1	github_release 2026-06-07	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.70	How AI Agents Reshape Knowledge Work: Autonomy, Efficiency, and Scope	arxiv 2026-06-05	237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin	AI	47%
0.70	Act As a Real Researcher: A Suite of Benchmarks Evaluating Frontier LLMs and Agentic Harnesses in Research Lifecycle	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. Sam Altman	AI	12%
0.70	Act As a Real Researcher: A Suite of Benchmarks Evaluating Frontier LLMs and Agentic Harnesses in Research Lifecycle	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	The Three-Ring Architecture: Governing Agents in the Era of On-Platform Organisations	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.70	Will May 2026 U.S. capacity utilization be at least 77.0%?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-05	235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis	Energy	53%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Anthropic cease operations or be acquired for less than $500 billion before 2034?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-08	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.70	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before 2030?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-06-08	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.70	Proxy Reward Internalization and Mechanistic Exploitation: A Learned Precursor to Reward Hacking and Its Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	SpatialWorld: Benchmarking Interactive Spatial Reasoning of Multimodal Agents in Real-World Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Lost in the Flow with Code Talkers: Unveiling the Instruction-Tuning Tax of Large Language Models in Code Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.70	PACT: Self-Evolving Physical Safety Alignment for Diffusion Policies in Embodied Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?	manifold 2026-06-10	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.70	Accounting for AI Inference in Corporate GHG Inventories: A Four-Tier Methodology for Scope 3 Category 1 Reporting	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_021 AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will miss near-term climate-change mitigation goals, with the bet that a sufficiently capable AI later solves the climate crisis retroactively. Eric Schmidt	Energy	47%
0.70	ActiveMem: Distributed Active Memory for Long-Horizon LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	LLM-Guided Neural Architecture Search for Robust Co-Design of Physical Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Local Is Not a Sufficient Privacy Boundary: Governing OS-Integrated On-Device AI	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.70	Bridging Semantics and Physical Execution: A Neuro-Symbolic Framework for Multi-Pair Robotic Assembly	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	UMI-Bench 1.0: An Open and Reproducible Real-World Benchmark for Tabletop Robotic Manipulation with UMI Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-11	236_022 Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame Andrew Yang	Robotics	39%
0.70	Sovereign Assurance Boundary: Certificate-Bound Admission for Agentic Infrastructure	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.70	Modelling magnetic material properties with uncertainty-aware neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Learning Object Manipulation from Scratch via Contrastive Interaction	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Notes2Skills: From Lab Notebooks to Certainty-Aware Scientific Agent Skills	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Agent Skill Evaluation and Evolution: Frameworks and Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	PLUME: Probabilistic Latent Unified World Modeling and Parameter Estimation for Multi-Finger Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Beyond Runtime Enforcement: Shield Synthesis as Defensibility Analysis for Adversarial Networks	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	An LLM System for Autonomous Variational Quantum Circuit Design	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	MemRefine: LLM-Guided Compression for Long-Term Agent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	Fantastic Scientific Agents and How to Build Them: AgentBuild for Rietveld Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Definitional alignment before capability alignment: a Design-Science framework for adjudicating claims about AGI	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.70	Strategic Decision Support for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.70	AI Supply Chain Galaxy: 3D Visual Analytics for License Compliance	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.70	EgoPhys: Learning Generalizable Physics Models of Deformable Objects from Egocentric Video	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	VibeThinker-3B: Exploring the Frontier of Verifiable Reasoning in Small Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	First Proof Second Batch	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.70	A Risk Decomposition Framework for Pre-Hoc Fine-Tuning Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Unlocking LLM Code Correction with Iterative Feedback Loops	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	PARSE: Provenance-Aware Retrieval Sanitization for Professional Domain LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.70	Trainable Photonic Measurement for Physics-Informed PDE Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.70	When will SpaceX and Tesla merge?	manifold 2026-06-19	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.70	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.70	Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Beyond Simpson's Paradox: A Cascade of Confounders in AI Agent Pull-Request Co-Authorship	arxiv 2026-06-21	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.70	Substitution-Based Analysis of Structural Novelty for Generative Models of Materials	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	LSTM Variants for Chaotic Dynamical Systems: An Empirical Study on the Lorenz Attractor	arxiv 2026-06-21	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.70	LP-NavOA: Integrated Local Navigation and Obstacle Avoidance for Humanoid Robots under Limited Perception	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Closing the Loop: Formally Verified Law as a Reward Signal for Self-Improving Legal AI	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.70	Supervise What Survives: Geometry-Guided VLA Adaptation from Synthetic Robot Videos	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.70	InvestPhilBench: A Multi-Layer Dynamic Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Model Procedural Reasoning in Expert Investment Philosophy	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	AI-Assisted Computational Reproducibility on the FABRIC Testbed	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.70	AI Coaching for Accelerating Human Skill Development with Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.70	Evidence for feature-specific error correction in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Look-Before-Move: Narrative-Grounded World Visual Attention in Dynamic 3D Story Worlds	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	LithoDreamer: A Physics-Informed World Model for Multi-Stage Computational Lithography	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	The CRISTAL Method: Neurosymbolic analysis from AI-synthesized world models	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Safety from Honesty in a Disinterested AI Predictor	arxiv 2026-06-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.70	Are Humans Evolved Instruction Followers? An Underlying Inductive Bias Enables Rapid Instructed Task Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.70	ISM:Self-Improving Strategy Memory for Continual Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-30	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	Arko-T: A Foundation Model for Text-to-Structured 3D Generation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	How Many "CRAZY" Months Will We Get in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.70	Testing Frontier Large Language Models' Physics Literacy in Parallel Physical Worlds	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Online Safety Monitoring for LLMs	arxiv 2026-07-02	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.70	Text-Driven 3D Indoor Scene Synthesis in Non-Manhattan Environments	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Decoupling Code Complexity from Newcomer Participation: A Causal Study of AI Coding Agent Adoption in OSS	arxiv 2026-07-02	AI_011 The vast majority of human programmers will be entirely replaced by AI within a single year — future programmer role transitions from debugger to 'conductor' directing autonomous agents to implement complex visions. Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	20%
0.70	The Agentic Garden of Forking Paths	arxiv 2026-07-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 7?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 6-12?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%