Validations Queue
111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 25 of 74, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.73 | Humanoid robot walking around me within a year?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | |
| 0.73 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 241_015 Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning Eric Schmidt | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi | AI | 61% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.73 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Macro/Economy | 85% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis | Robotics | 44% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 241_060 Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers Peter Diamandis | Space | 54% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.73 | Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.73 | Will SpaceX close at a value below its IPO price before the end of 2026?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-21 | AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-21 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-27 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.73 | will an AI get a nobel prize before 2040?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-07-07 | 238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Google announce Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 at I/O 2026?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | |
| 0.73 | Will DeepSeek release a model named DeepSeek-R2 by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | |
| 0.73 | manifold 2026-05-14 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.73 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.73 | SpaceX & Tesla Merger before 2028(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 43% | |
| 0.73 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% |