Validations Queue

111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 23 of 49, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)

111,300

Reviewed

Filtered

24,177

page 23 / 49

Showing on page

500

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold

Source

All (111300)arxiv (52288)codex_research_pack (134)edgar_8k (3691)fda (5230)gdelt (1218)github_release (3347)manifold (10911)polymarket (34481)

Page size

50 100 200 500

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Threshold:Source:Action:

Source0 selected · 0 visible

Bulk action

Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) (CIK 0001736297)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.67	FDA ANDA073484: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — BIONPHARMA	fda 2026-04-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	FDA ANDA216068: ENZALUTAMIDE (ENZALUTAMIDE) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-04-20	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	FDA ANDA213165: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — CIPLA	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	FDA ANDA214398: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — LUPIN	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.92.0	github_release 2026-04-08	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.89.0	github_release 2026-04-03	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.75.0	github_release 2025-11-24	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.74.1	github_release 2025-11-19	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.74.0	github_release 2025-11-18	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Meta-Inverse Physics-Informed Neural Networks for High-Dimensional Ordinary Differential Equations	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Exposing LLM Safety Gaps Through Mathematical Encoding:New Attacks and Systematic Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-05	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Making the Invisible Visible: Understanding the Mismatch Between Organizational Goals and Worker Experiences in AI Adoption	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.67	SpecKV: Adaptive Speculative Decoding with Compression-Aware Gamma Selection	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	AI and Open-data Driven Scalable Solar Power Profiling	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.67	Dependency Parsing Across the Resource Spectrum: Evaluating Architectures on High and Low-Resource Languages	arxiv 2026-05-04	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.67	Counterfactual Reasoning in Automated Planning	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	OCRR: A Benchmark for Online Correction Recovery under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.67	Measuring AI Reasoning: A Guide for Researchers	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Perturbation Dose Responses in Recursive LLM Loops: Raw Switching, Stochastic Floors, and Persistent Escape under Append, Replace, and Dialog Updates	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Do We Really Need Immediate Resets? Rethinking Collision Handling for Efficient Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Do We Really Need Immediate Resets? Rethinking Collision Handling for Efficient Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	FDA ANDA211545: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — ALKEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	The Impossibility Triangle of Long-Context Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 8?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	In which 2026 month will Firefox hit Peak Cyber?	manifold 2026-05-08	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.67	Can RL Teach Long-Horizon Reasoning to LLMs? Expressiveness Is Key	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Prediction and Empowerment: A Theory of Agency through Bridge Interfaces	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Improving the Efficiency of Language Agent Teams with Adaptive Task Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	LLM-Driven Design Space Exploration of FPGA-based Accelerators	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Lightweight Stylistic Consistency Profiling: Robust Detection of LLM-Generated Textual Content for Multimedia Moderation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Priming, Path-dependence, and Plasticity: Understanding the molding of user-LLM interaction and its implications from (many) chat logs in the wild	arxiv 2026-05-07	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.67	SLAM: Structural Linguistic Activation Marking for Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Multi-Robot Coordination in V2X Environments	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Multi-Robot Coordination in V2X Environments	arxiv 2026-05-07	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	Monitoring autonomous persistent surveillance missions using invariance	arxiv 2026-05-07	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	Position: Embodied AI Requires a Privacy-Utility Trade-off	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	HDFlow: Hierarchical Diffusion-Flow Planning for Long-horizon Tasks	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Conditional Flow-VAE for Safety-Critical Traffic Scenario Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	FDA ANDA213912: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — MYLAN	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	FDA ANDA090508: FINASTERIDE (FINASTERIDE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 12?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will I be alive at the end of 2029?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-05-11	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.67	Will I have another peak moment in the next 5 years?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-11	241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade Peter Diamandis	AI	8%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will DeepSeek release a model named DeepSeek-R2 by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-13	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	Search Your Block Floating Point Scales!	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Trajectory-Agnostic Asteroid Detection in TESS with Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.67	In-context learning to predict critical transitions in dynamical systems	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Procedural-skill SFT across capacity tiers: A W-Shaped pre-SFT Trajectory and Regime-Asymmetric Mechanism on 0.8B-4B Qwen3.5 Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	GeomHerd: A Forward-looking Herding Quantification via Ricci Flow Geometry on Agent Interactive Simulations	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	MARLIN: Multi-Agent Game-Theoretic Reinforcement Learning for Sustainable LLM Inference in Cloud Datacenters	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.67	When is Warmstarting Effective for Scaling Language Models?	arxiv 2026-05-13	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.67	An Agentic AI Framework with Large Language Models and Chain-of-Thought for UAV-Assisted Logistics Scheduling with Mobile Edge Computing	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.67	Bridging Domain Gaps with Target-Aligned Generation for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC (AMD) (CIK 0000002488)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.67	FrontierSmith: Synthesizing Open-Ended Coding Problems at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.67	Latency-Quality Routing for Functionally Equivalent Tools in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	LLMs Know When They Know, but Do Not Act on It: A Metacognitive Harness for Test-time Scaling	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	How many companies with a $5T+ market cap at end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	FDA ANDA204345: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — DR REDDYS	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before July 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-17	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 21?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-16	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.67	Continuous Diffusion Scales Competitively with Discrete Diffusion for Language	arxiv 2026-05-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	EvoMemBench: Benchmarking Agent Memory from a Self-Evolving Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Transfer Learning for Customized Car Racing Environments	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	GenTS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Library for Generative Time Series Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will a prediction market-related court case reach the Supreme Court before 2029?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-27	247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin	AI	39%
0.67	Overcoming Forgetting in LLM Fine-Tuning with Evolution Strategies	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	A Predictive Law for On-Policy Self-Distillation From World Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	VisualThink-VLA: Visual Intermediate Reasoning for Effective and Low-Latency Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Discovering Cooperative Pipelines: Autoresearch for Sequential Social Dilemmas	arxiv 2026-05-28	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	33%
0.67	Redundant or Necessary? A Benchmark for Detecting Redundant Steps in Agent Trajectories	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Network Optimization Aspects of Autonomous Vehicles: Challenges and Future Directions	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_008 Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro manufacturing agreement to deploy up to 20,000 purpose-built autonomous vehicles globally — hybrid human+AV transportation networks will persist 20-30 years due to cur... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	76%
0.67	The Curse of Helpfulness: Inverse Scaling Law in Robustness to Distractor Instructions via DistractionIF	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	Can AI Weather Models Predict Beyond Two Weeks? A Quantitative Benchmark and Analysis of Long Rollouts	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.67	Solving Integer Linear Programming with Parallel Tempering	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Harmless Yet Harmful: Neutral Prompting Attacks for Stealthy Hallucination Steering in Agent Skills	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.67	From Blind Guess to Informed Judgment: Teaching LLMs to Evaluate Materials by Building Knowledge-Augmented Preference Signals	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Recovering Policy-Induced Errors: Benchmarking and Trajectory Synthesis for Robust GUI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	LLM-Guided Future Hypotheses for Horizon-Aware Exploration in Multi-Step Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	ElegantVLA: Learning When to Think for Efficient Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Learning and Adaptation in Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing Bead Geometry Control	arxiv 2026-05-27	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	3rd largest company end of August 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.67	3rd largest company end of June 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	FDA ANDA218488: EVEROLIMUS (EVEROLIMUS) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.67	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.67	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.67	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.67	Will Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-02	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.67	From Layers to Submodules: Rethinking Granularity in Replacement-Based LLM Compression	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.67	Harness-1: Reinforcement Learning for Search Agents with State-Externalizing Harnesses	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	COMAP: Co-Evolving World Models and Agent Policies for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	MobEvolve: An Agentic Self-Evolving Heuristic System for Interpretable Human Mobility Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Agent Operating Systems (AOS): Integrating Agentic Control Planes into, and Beyond, Traditional Operating Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_001 The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of... Alex Finn	AI	51%
0.67	An Enigma of Artificial Reason: Investigating the Production-Evaluation Gap in Large Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	World-Task Factorization for Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	SkillHarm: Lifecycle-Aware Skill-Based Attacks via Automated Construction	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_026 Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ... Alex Finn	Defense	77%
0.67	CARTE: A Benchmark for Mapping Language Model Knowledge Across France	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Connecting the Dots: Benchmarking Reflective Memory in Long-Horizon Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Low-Resource Safety Failures Are Action Failures, Not Representation Failures	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	On the Generalization Gap in Self-Evolving Language Model Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.67	Hybrid Verified Decoding: Learning to Allocate Verification in Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-06-03	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Best METR 80% Time Horizon before August 2026	manifold 2026-06-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Benchmark Everything Everywhere All at Once	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.67	RiskFlow: Fast and Faithful Safety-Critical Traffic Scenario Generation	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.67	Learning to Route LLMs from Implicit Cost-Performance Preferences via Meta-Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Beyond Similarity: Trustworthy Memory Search for Personal AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	56%
0.67	Learning Geometric Representations from Videos for Spatial Intelligent Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Explainable AI-Driven Cyber Risk Analytics and Model Reliability Assessment for Intelligent Governance of U.S. Critical Infrastructure: An XGBoost and SHAP-Based Intrusion Detection Framework	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.67	Critic-Guided Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Reasoning for Reliable Mathematical Problem Solving	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	LongSpace: Exploring Long-Horizon Spatial Memory from Perception to Recall in Video	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Generative Criticality in Large Language Model Temperature Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	From Prediction to Self: Developmental Conditions for Agency in Minimal Neural Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.67	The Invisible Hand of Physics: When Video Diffusion Models Know More Than They Show	arxiv 2026-06-03	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	USAD 2.0: Scaling Representation Distillation for Universal Audio Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Beyond tokens: a unified framework for latent communication in LLM-based multi-agent systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Stability vs. Manipulability: Evaluating Robustness Under Post-Decision Interaction in LLM Judges	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Meridian: Metric-Semantic Primitive Matching for Cross-View Geo-Localization Beyond Urban Environments	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	VISTA: Vision-Grounded and Physics-Validated Adaptation of UMI data for VLA Training	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7?(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Largest company end of 2028?	manifold 2026-06-07	235_003 First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	OPTIMUS-Prime: Minimal and Sufficient Concept Explanations for Deep Vision Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Coarse-to-Control: Action-Token Planning for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) (CIK 0001736297)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10?(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.67	Will DeepSWE be ≥90% solved at <$5/task before 2027?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-09	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.67	OmniGameArena: A Unified UE5 Benchmark for VLM Game Agents with Improvement Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	SpatialWorld: Benchmarking Interactive Spatial Reasoning of Multimodal Agents in Real-World Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	End-to-End Context Compression at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	AI Scientists Are Only as Good as Their Evidence: A Stratified Ablation of Proprietary Data and Reasoning Skills in Drug-Asset Valuation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.67	AI Assurance in UK Defence: Challenges in Operationalising JSP 936	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Scaling Neural Network Verification with Tensor Parallelism and Fully Sharded Data Parallelism	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Leveraging Structural Constraints for Diffusion-based Neural TSP Solvers	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Diverse Thinking Schemata Elicit Better Reasoning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	AlloSpatial: Agentic Harness Framework for Spatial Reasoning in Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Echo-Memory: A Controlled Study of Memory in Action World Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Echo-Memory: A Controlled Study of Memory in Action World Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Toward Compiler World Models: Learning Latent Dynamics for Efficient Tensor Program Search	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Improved Convergence Analysis of Topology Dependence in Decentralized SGD	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	When Built-in Thinking Helps and Hurts: Constraint-Level Error Shifts in Instruction Following	arxiv 2026-06-08	240_014 Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months Sam Altman	AI	50%
0.67	Detecting Differences Is Not Understanding Structure: Large Language Models Fail at Graph Isomorphism	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Building Customer Support AI Agents at 100M-User Scale: An Evaluation-Driven Framework	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	TinyGiantALM: A Compact Audio-Language Model for Intent-Aware Reasoning under Resource Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Motion planning for hundreds of floating robots	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Efficient Minimal Solvers for Relative Pose Estimation in Autonomous Driving Applications	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	PhysAgent: Automating Physics-Based 4D Synthesis via Trajectory-Grounded Multi-Agent Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	OASIS: From Simulation Data Collection to Real-World Humanoid Loco-Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.108.0	github_release 2026-06-09	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in June?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-10	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.67	Provenance Tracking in AI Compilers through the Lens of Coalgebra	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Do VLMs Reason Like Engineers? A Benchmark and a Stage-wise Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Do VLMs Reason Like Engineers? A Benchmark and a Stage-wise Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	A Bayesian Network Approach for Enhancing Security-Focused Decision Support Systems	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Effective Reinforcement Learning for Agentic Search by Recycling Zero-Variance Queries During Training	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	A Unified Multi-Modal Framework for Intelligent Financial Systems: Integrating Reinforcement Learning, High-Frequency Trading, and Game-Theoretic Approaches with Cross-Modal Sentiment Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_004 Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash headcount while ruthlessly punishing those that retain human-heavy operational structures — transforming AI from productivity tool into an economic surveillance mech... Andrew Yang	Markets/Stocks	30%
0.67	Task Robustness via Re-Labelling Vision-Action Robot Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Multi-Faceted Interactivity Alignment in Full-Duplex Speech Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	MARCH: Model-Assisted Reinforcement Learning for the Perceptive Control of Humanoids over Sparse Footholds	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	APPO: Agentic Procedural Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Towards Responsibly Non-Compliant Machines	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Skill-Augmented AI Agents for Medical Research Analysis: An Exploratory Multi-Model Human Evaluation in an NSCLC Transcriptomic Biomarker Task	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.67	Automated Mediator for Human Negotiation: Pre-Mediation via a Structured LLM Pipeline	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	DAM-VLA: Decoupled Asynchronous Multimodal Vision Language Action model	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Simplicity Suffices for Parameter Noise Injection in Stochastic Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Space-sampled Value Decay: Forgetting Mechanisms for Non-stationary Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.67	DroneShield-AI: A Multi-Modal Sensor Fusion Framework for Real-Time Autonomous Drone Threat Detection, Behavioral Intent Classification, and Swarm Intelligence in Contested Airspace	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_005 Fundamental convergence between autonomous AI, enterprise software, and global defense infrastructure — future geopolitical supremacy dictated entirely by algorithmic dominance rather than traditional kinetic military assets; autonomous drones, AI-driv... Ben Horowitz	Defense	73%
0.67	Energy-Conserved Neural Pipelines: Attenuating Error Propagation in Modular Neural Networks via Physical Conservation Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	SPADE: Split-and-Delay Embeddings for Autoregressive High-Granularity Calorimeter Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Valid Inference with Synthetic Data via Task Exchangeability	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	LabVLA: Grounding Vision-Language-Action Models in Scientific Laboratories	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Is It You or Your Environment? A Bayesian Inference Framework for Genomically-Anchored Personalized Physiological Interpretation	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.67	Why Sampling Is Not Choosing: Intentionality, Agency, and Moral Responsibility in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	ComAct: Reframing Professional Software Manipulation via COM-as-Action Paradigm	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Modern analog computing for solving differential and matrix equations	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.67	Otters++: A Time-to-first-spike Based Energy Efficient Optical Spiking Transformer	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Beyond Problem Solving: UOJ-Bench for Evaluating Code Generation, Hacking, and Repair in Competitive Programming	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	MLUBench: A Benchmark for Lifelong Unlearning Evaluation in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Constructing Evaluation Datasets for Procedural Reasoning: Balancing Naturalness, Grounding, and Multi-Hop Coverage	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.67	Foresight: Iterative Reasoning About Clues that Matter for Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Positional Encoding in the Context of Memristor-Based Analog Computation for Automatic Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Where Computation Lives Inside TabPFN: Causal Localisation of Attention Head Function	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	SkillChain: Closing the Loop on Skill Evolution for Image-Based E-Commerce AI Assistants	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	$\texttt{WEAVER}$, Better, Faster, Longer: An Effective World Model for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	See Selectively, Act Adaptively: Dual-Level Structural Decomposition for Bimanual Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	FDA ANDA215552: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — YAOPHARMA CO LTD	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will OpenAI delay OR withdraw a model release due to demands by the US US government by EOY 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-13	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	When will Anthropic's API customers get access to Fable 5 again?	manifold 2026-06-13	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	LabOSBench: Benchmarking Computer Use Agents for Scientific Instrument Control	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.67	Medical world models: representing medical states, modelling clinical dynamics and guiding intervention policies	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.67	Medical world models: representing medical states, modelling clinical dynamics and guiding intervention policies	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.67	Gaming-Resistant Insurance Contracts for Autonomous AI Agents: Strategy-Proof Toll Mechanism Design	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.67	AI Pluralism and the Worlds It Misses	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.67	Formalize Once, Edit the Rest: Efficient Lean-Based Answer Selection for Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Exploding and vanishing gradients in deep neural networks: the effect of residual connections	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.67	Fantastic Pretraining Optimizers and Where to Find Them II: Hyperball Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Diffusion Offline Reinforcement Learning for Fair and Energy-Efficient UAV-Assisted Wireless Networks	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.67	HiMPO: Hindsight-Informed Memory Policy Optimization for Less-Entangled Credit in Long-Horizon Agents	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	LOPAL: Local Performance-Aware Active Learning from Imperfect Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	SoK: Security and Privacy of Foundation-Model-Powered Robots	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Energy-Efficient Arm Reaching for a Humanoid Robot via Deep Reinforcement Learning with Identified Power Models	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-17	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	27%
0.67	Learning Red Agent Policy from Observations for Neurosymbolic Autonomous Cyber Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Embedded Machine Learning for Microcontroller-Class Edge Devices: Data, Feature, Evaluation, and Deployment Pipelines	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	When AI Says "I have been in similar situations": Synthetic Lived Experience in Peer-Like Caregiver Support	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	LegalHalluLens: Typed Hallucination Auditing and Calibrated Multi-Agent Debate for Trustworthy Legal AI	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.67	AUTOGATE: Automated Clock Gating via Toggling-Aware LLM-based RTL Rewriting	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	AoiZora: Topology-Aware Auto-Parallel Optimization for Inference of Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Multi-Adapter PPO: A Cross-Attention Enhanced Wavelength Selection Framework for LIBS Quantitative Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Performance-Driven Environment Abstraction with Multi-Timescale Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	ProCUA-SFT Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.67	From Compression to Deployment: Real-Time and Energy-Efficient FastGRNN on Ultra-Constrained Microcontrollers	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	Environment-Grounded Automated Prompt Optimization for LLM Game Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	PARSE: Provenance-Aware Retrieval Sanitization for Professional Domain LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.67	WeaveLA: Event Driven Cross-Subtask Latent Memory Weaving for Repetitive Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	A Multi-Domain Benchmark for Detecting AI-Generated Text-Rich Images from GPT-Image-2	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_036 AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.67	EffiNav: Fusing Depth and Vision-Language for Efficient Object Goal Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Beyond Algorithms: Conceptual Innovation in Medical Imaging AI	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Quantifying and Auditing LLM Evaluation via Positive--Unlabeled Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Lifecycle-Aware Dynamic Analysis for Secure ML Model Execution	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.67	EfficientRollout: System-Aware Self-Speculative Decoding for RL Rollouts	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Do as the Romans Do: Learning Universal Behaviors from Heterogeneous Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	On the Residual Scaling of Looped Transformers: Stability and Transferability	arxiv 2026-06-16	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.67	From Sparse Features to Trustworthy Proxies: Certifying SAE-Based Interpretability	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Recover, Discover, Plan: Learning Skills and Concepts from Robot Failures	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.67	Recover, Discover, Plan: Learning Skills and Concepts from Robot Failures	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Speeding up the annotation process in semantic segmentation industrial applications	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.67	Spatial-Aware Reduction Framework: Towards Efficient and Faithful Visual State Space Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	MetaResearcher: Scaling Deep Research via Self-Reflective Reinforcement Learning in Adversarial Virtual Environments	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	VCG: A Multimodal Retrieval Framework for E-Commerce Video Feeds under Extreme Cold-Start Conditions	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	Direct Advantage Estimation for Scalable and Sample-efficient Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.67	A Model-Driven Approach for Developing Families of Reinforcement Learning Environments	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	EquiVLA: A General Framework for Rotationally Equivariant Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	A Categorial and Sheaf-Theoretic Semantics for Autonomic Component Ensembles	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Proprioceptive Invariant State Estimation for Humanoid Robots on Non-Inertial Ground	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	GPT-5.6 Outperforms Claude Fable 5 on FrontierMath Tier 4?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-19	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.67	FDA ANDA219413: ANDA219413 ((unspecified)) — TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.	fda 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 24?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-21	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 23?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	HyperQuant: A Rate-Distortion-Optimal Quantization Pipeline for Large Language and Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	AdaReP:Adaptive Re-Planning under Model Mismatch for Neural World-Model Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	When Agents Commit Too Soon: Diagnosing Premature Commitment in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	AI Fiction in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.67	Action-BED: Task-Driven Bayesian Experimental Design with Singly Intractable Objectives	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	It's Much Easier for Neural Networks to learn Game of Life Dynamics with the Right Activation Function: Polynomial Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks	arxiv 2026-06-22	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	FORGE: Fused On-Register Gradient Elimination for Memory-Efficient LLM Training	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	IOI: Decoupling Kinematics and Physics for Interactive World Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.67	Bridging Semantics and Kinematics: A Modular Framework for Zero-Shot Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Asymmetric physics enables efficient learning in quadrupedal robot swarms	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Can Single-View Mesh Reconstruction Generalize to Robot Camera Rotation?	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	It's Complicated: On the Design and Evaluation of AI-Powered AAC Interfaces	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. Dave Blundin	AI	37%
0.67	Can Scale Save Us From Plasticity Loss in Large Language Models?	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	ASALT: Adaptive State Alignment for Lateral Transfer in Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.67	ATRIA: Adaptive Traceable ECG Reporting with Iterative Agents	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	VeryTrace: Verifying Reasoning Traces through Compilable Formalism and Structured Verification	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	End-to-End Radar and Communication Modulation Recognition with Neuromorphic Computing	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Maestro Order: A Model-Agnostic Orchestration Harness	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Offline Reinforcement Learning for Warehouse SLAM Throughput Control	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Supervise What Survives: Geometry-Guided VLA Adaptation from Synthetic Robot Videos	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Supervise What Survives: Geometry-Guided VLA Adaptation from Synthetic Robot Videos	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Staying In Character: Perspective-Bounded Memory For Book-Based Role-Playing Agents	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	TopoCast: A Topological Fidelity Framework for Evaluating Transformer-Based Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	From Sounds to Scenes: A Benchmark for Evaluating Context-Aware Auditory Scene Understanding in Large Audio Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Sarashina2.2-TTS: Tackling Kanji Polyphony in Japanese Speech Generation via Data Scaling and Targeted Data Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Heterogeneous and Adept Snapshot Distillation for 3D Semantic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Proactive Systems in HCI and AI: Concepts, Challenges, and Opportunities	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	The Inference-Compute Frontier and a Latency-Efficient Architecture for Limit Order Book Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Emergent Capabilities Arise Randomly from Learning Sparse Attention Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.67	Emergent Capabilities Arise Randomly from Learning Sparse Attention Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	OPERA: Aligning Open-Ended Reasoning via Objective Perplexity-based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.67	PolicyAlign: Direct Policy-Based Safety Alignment for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	Learning Asynchronous Upper-body Task-space Trajectory Tracking Policy for Humanoid Robots	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Event-Adaptive Motion Planning with Distilled Vision-Language Model in Safety-Critical Situations	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	RigPI: Dynamic Parameter Identification of Rigid Body via VLM-Seeded Differentiable Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-26	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.67	AI Healthcare Chatbots as Information Infrastructure: A Large-Scale Study of User-Reported Breakdowns	arxiv 2026-06-25	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.67	NuclearQAv2: A Structured Benchmark for Evaluating Domain-Science Competence in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	A Deterministic Control Plane for LLM Coding Agents	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Scientific discovery as meta-optimization: a combinatorial optimization case study	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Data-driven Machine Learning Cannot Reach Symbolic-level Logical Reasoning -- The Limit of the Scaling Law	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Charting the Growth of Social-Physical HRI (spHRI): A Systematic Review Pipeline Augmented by Small Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.67	Generative Models on Analog Hardware with Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.67	RolloutPipe: Overlapping Pipelined Rollout and Training in Disaggregated On-Policy LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	OctoSense: Self-Supervised Learning for Multimodal Robot Perception	arxiv 2026-06-25	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.67	Tactile-WAM: Touch-Aware World Action Model with Tactile Asymmetric Attention	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Inference-Time Robot Behavior Steering through Physically-Aware Reconfiguration of Task-Structure	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Collective cooperation without individual fidelity in LLM agents	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Model Predictive Current Control with Harmonic Correction for Single-Phase AC-DC EV Charging	arxiv 2026-06-29	INF_066 EV charging will totally bifurcate: consumer charging becomes localized and invisible (residential solar-to-battery systems), while commercial fleet charging evolves into high-throughput automated industrial depots drawing massive simultaneous power lo... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	52%
0.67	Dynamo: Dynamic Skill-Tool Evolution for Vision-Language Agents	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	CLQT: A Closed-Loop, Cost-Aware, Strategy-Consistent Benchmark for Diagnostic Evaluation of LLM Portfolio-Management Agents	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Diversity is the Strength of the AI Crowd	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	OSWorld2.0: Benchmarking Computer Use Agents on Long-Horizon Real-World Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	DreamForge-World 0.1 Preview: A Low-Compute Real-Time Controllable World Model	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	CAREBench: A Child-Safety Risk Benchmark for Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.67	Anti-Collapse Dynamics and the Emergence of Multi-Time-Scale Learning in Recurrent Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-28	238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque	AI	74%
0.67	Dynamic Parsing and Updating Natural Language Specification using VLMs for Robust Vision-Language Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Towards Physical Intuitions for Alignment Dynamics: A Case Study With Randomness Crystallization	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Travel-Oriented Reasoning Large Language Model via Domain-Specific Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Representational Depth of Evaluation Awareness Shifts With Scale in Open-Weight Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Selective Memory Retention for Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	OP3DSG: Open-Vocabulary Part-Aware 3D Scene Graph Generation for Real-World Environments	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Evolutionary Hyperparameter Optimization to Find Lightweight CNN Models for Autonomous Steering	arxiv 2026-06-29	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.67	When will we have an open-weights model on-par with Mythos/Fable	manifold 2026-07-01	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.67	ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC (AMD) (CIK 0000002488)	edgar_8k 2026-07-01	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.67	Fork-Think with Confidence	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Motion Planning in Compressed Representation Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.115.1	github_release 2026-07-01	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.67	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	Message Passing Enables Efficient Reasoning	arxiv 2026-07-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Local Motion Matters: A Deconstruct-Recompose Paradigm for Reinforcement Learning Pre-training from Videos	arxiv 2026-07-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Understanding Agent-Based Patching of Compiler Missed Optimizations	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.67	Criticality-Based Guard Rail Validation for AI Agent Decisions in Autonomous Telecom Networks	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.67	Evolutionary Wave Function Collapse	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Episodic-to-Semantic Consolidation Without Identity Drift	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	CLAP: Closed-Loop Training, Evaluation, and Release Control for Domain Agent Post-training	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Scaling Trends for Lie Detector Oversight in Preference Learning	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Mean Field Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	The Future of NLP may not be at NLP Conferences: Scholarly Migration Patterns in Natural Language Processing	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	facebookresearch/nevergrad 0.14.0	github_release 2023-10-01	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	facebookresearch/NeuralCompression v0.3.0	github_release 2023-08-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	ClassicLogic: A Knowledge-Driven Benchmark of Classic Puzzle Games for Evaluating Compositional Generalization	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	Agent Data Injection Attacks are Realistic Threats to AI Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_019 Physical intervention (literally unplugging data centers) may be required once AI agents begin communicating in proprietary, non-human-decipherable languages. Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	16%
0.67	Agent Data Injection Attacks are Realistic Threats to AI Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_026 Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ... Alex Finn	Defense	77%
0.67	MRMS: A Multi-Resolution Memory Substrate for Long-Lived AI Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	A Deep Learning-based surrogate model for Severe Accidents in nuclear reactors using ASTEC	arxiv 2026-07-05	INF_050 Within approximately 6-7 years (2031-2032), major tech companies will operate their own small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) co-located directly with AI data centers — in the hundreds-of-megawatts range, bypassing the public grid entirely. Jensen Huang	Energy	39%
0.67	UI-MOPD: Multi-Platform On-Policy Distillation for Continual GUI Agent Learning	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Train Smarter, Not Longer: Memorization-Guided Data Reuse for Efficient LLM Training	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Unified convergence analysis for gradient descent optimization methods in the training of deep neural networks	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.67	When will consumer AI be able to read me a book	manifold 2026-04-25	230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.67	Title:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-04-24	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	41%
0.67	Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.67	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will US average gas price reach … in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.67	First month s&p500 closes at 7,500.00 or higher?	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will there be a publicly explicated Scientific Theory of Deep Learning before 2032?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-02	CMQ_003 By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. Sam Altman	AI	23%
0.67	Will I get an AI lab offer?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-02	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will @subquadratic 's SubQ "breakthrough" end up mattering in any meaningful way, in 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-05	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	What will Bitcoin hit first: $75k or $85k	manifold 2026-05-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	FDA ANDA215243: RAMELTEON (RAMELTEON) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-06-04	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.84.0	github_release 2026-02-25	246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis	AI	76%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.77.0	github_release 2026-01-29	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-05	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	From Intent to Execution: Composing Agentic Workflows with Agent Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_034 Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.67	Contextual Multi-Objective Optimization: Rethinking Objectives in Frontier AI Systems	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.67	AniMatrix: An Anime Video Generation Model that Thinks in Art, Not Physics	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Multi-Agent Strategic Games with LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Discovering Reinforcement Learning Interfaces with Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	cotomi Act: Learning to Automate Work by Watching You	arxiv 2026-05-04	237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin	AI	47%
0.67	An Empirical Study of Agent Skills for Healthcare: Practice, Gaps, and Governance	arxiv 2026-05-04	232_044 There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Validation of an AI-based end-to-end model for prostate pathology using long-term archived routine samples	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.67	Expanding functional protein sequence space using high entropy generative models	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.67	CoRAL: Contact-Rich Adaptive LLM-based Control for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Shared Autonomy Assisted by Impedance-Driven Anisotropic Guidance Field	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	FDA BLA761451: SAPHNELO (ANIFROLIMAB-FNIA) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-04-24	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Bitcoin $83k in May?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Adapting Large Language Models to a Low-Resource Agglutinative Language: A Comparative Study of LoRA and QLoRA for Bashkir	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will Apple stop selling the $599 MacBook Neo SKU before the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-08	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.67	UniPool: A Globally Shared Expert Pool for Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	A Regime Theory of Controller Class Selection for LLM Action Decisions	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	A Versatile AI Agent for Rare Disease Diagnosis and Risk Gene Prioritization	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.67	Skill1: Unified Evolution of Skill-Augmented Agents via Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	Milestone-Guided Policy Learning for Long-Horizon Language Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	Does Synthetic Data Help? Empirical Evidence from Deep Learning Time Series Forecasters	arxiv 2026-05-07	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.67	Weight-Decay Turns Transformer Loss Landscapes Villani: Functional-Analytic Foundations for Optimization and Generalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Neural-Actuarial Longevity Forecasting: Anchoring LSTMs for Explainable Risk Management	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.67	SEQUOR: A Multi-Turn Benchmark for Realistic Constraint Following	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Rethinking RL for LLM Reasoning: It's Sparse Policy Selection, Not Capability Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Beyond Steering Vector: Flow-based Activation Steering for Inference-Time Intervention	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? (market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Events as Triggers for Behavioral Diversity in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Intrinsic Vicarious Conditioning for Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Scaling Laws and Tradeoffs in Recurrent Networks of Expressive Neurons	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.67	ROMER: Expert Replacement and Router Calibration for Robust MoE LLMs on Analog Compute-in-Memory Systems	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	FDA NDA020578: ZOLADEX (GOSERELIN ACETATE) — TERSERA	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	EVA-Bench: A New End-to-end Framework for Evaluating Voice Agents	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Training ML Models with Predictable Failures	arxiv 2026-05-14	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%