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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.72	Rigel: Reverse-Engineering the Metal 4.1 Tensor Compute Path on the Apple M4 Max GPU	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	HATS: A Human-Agent Teleoperation System for Multi-Arm Data Collection	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Small Initialization Matters for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	MagicSim: A Unified Infrastructure for Executable Embodied Interaction	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	HumanoidArena: Benchmarking Egocentric Hierarchical Whole-body Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space?	manifold 2026-06-18	241_054 Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers Peter Diamandis	Space	54%
0.72	AI-Driven Assessment of Human Tutors: Linking Training Performance to Real-Life Practice	arxiv 2026-06-17	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	37%
0.72	Autonomous Event-Driven Multi-Agent Orchestration for Enterprise AI at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.72	Multi-Agent Transactive Memory	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.72	Large Language Models Do Not Always Need Readable Language	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Uncertainty-Aware Reward Modeling for Stable RLHF	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.72	AI Scientists as Engines of Discovery: A Case for Development within Reformed Institutions	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.72	EnterpriseClawBench: Benchmarking Agents from Real Workplace Sessions	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.72	Reinforcement Learning Towards Broadly and Persistently Beneficial Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.72	Cryptographic certificates of validity for trustworthy AI	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.72	Explaining Failures of Cyber-Physical Systems with Actual Causality	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.72	SPACE: Enabling Learning from Cross-Robot Data Toward Generalist Policies	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Memory Makes the Difference: Evaluating How Different Memory Roles Shape Conversational Agents	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	Bitcoin price on June 28?	manifold 2026-06-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-25	230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.72	When will a humanoid robot be capable of driving?	manifold 2026-06-28	CMQ_051 Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla	Robotics	37%
0.72	The Many-Body Problem of the Data Centre	arxiv 2026-06-29	232_049 Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	19%
0.72	Automating the Design of Embodied AgentArchitectures	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.72	Sequential Planning via Anchored Robotic Keypoints	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will the distributed training of AI be illegal before 2028(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-07-02	ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	29%
0.72	Human-Machine Collaboration on Generative Meta-Learning: Model and Algorithm	arxiv 2026-07-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on July 4?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 93%)	polymarket 2026-04-01	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.72	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.72	Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.72	Robotic Desk Organization: A Multi-Primitive Approach to Manipulating Heterogeneous Objects via Environmental Constraints	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Fine-Tuning Small Language Models for Solution-Oriented Windows Event Log Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Minimizing Modality Gap from the Input Side: Your Speech LLM Can Be a Prosody-Aware Text LLM	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-16	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.72	Beyond Scaling: Agents Are Heading to the Edge	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.72	DenseSteer: Steering Small Language Models towards Dense Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	WorldMemArena: Evaluating Multimodal Agent Memory Through Action-World Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	How high will SpaceX get on the Market Cap Leaderboard in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.72	Will an OpenAI or Anthropic employee comment on this market first?	manifold 2026-06-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.72	Scaling Agentic Capabilities via Grounded Interaction Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	RedKnot: Efficient Long-Context LLM Serving with Head-Aware KV Reuse and SegPagedAttention	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Beyond Semantic Organization: Memory as Execution State Management for Long-Horizon Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.72	Individual Gain, Collective Loss: Metacognitive Adaptation in AI-Assisted Creativity	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion, on June 12th, the IPO date of Spacex?(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-06-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.72	Twelve quick tips for designing AI-driven HPC workflows	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.72	How AI Agents Reshape Knowledge Work: Autonomy, Efficiency, and Scope	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.72	Terastal: Layer-Variant-based Scheduling for Real-Time Multi-DNN Workloads on Heterogeneous Accelerators	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.72	Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire by June 22, 2026?(market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-06-09	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.72	Harness Engineering for Physical AI: Robot Middleware Is the Harness Layer	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	SkillHone: A Harness for Continual Agent Skill Evolution Through Persistent Decision History	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	Achieving Cloud-Grade SLOs for Local Mixture-of-Experts Inference through CPU-GPU Hybrid Design	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Flow Control: Steering Vision-Language-Action Models with Simple Real-Time Inputs	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	UMI-Bench 1.0: An Open and Reproducible Real-World Benchmark for Tabletop Robotic Manipulation with UMI Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	When will AI execute most of my research?	manifold 2026-06-09	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.72	A Five-Plane Reference Architecture for Runtime Governance of Production AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.72	Embodied-BenchClaw: An Autonomous Multi-Agent System for Embodied Spatial Intelligence Benchmark Construction	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	When will there be humanoid robots doing paid work outdoors in the US?	manifold 2026-06-12	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.72	A Three-Layer Framework for AI in Scientific Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.72	Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-06-15	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.72	Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-06-15	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.72	SoK: Security and Privacy of Foundation-Model-Powered Robots	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	A Formal Resilience Framework for Cyber-Physical Embodied Systems under Device-Level Cyberattacks	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.72	Position: Coding Benchmarks Are Misaligned with Agentic Software Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.72	ReSiReg: Towards Spatially Consistent Semantics in Language-Conditioned Robotic Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	FlowTrain: Flow-Based Decoupled Training for Industrial-Grade Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Scalable Multi-Task Data Generation via Reinforcement Learning for Language-Conditioned Bimanual Dexterous Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	DMuon: Efficient Distributed Muon Training with Near-Adam Overhead	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Translating Natural Language to Strategic Temporal Specifications via LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	HUMEMBR: Learning Human Routines for Predictive Embodied Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Understanding LLM Intervention Explanations in Multi-Party Human-Robot Interaction	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on July 3?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 29-July 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	May 2026 AI model releases	manifold 2026-04-30	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.72	A Workflow-Oriented Framework for Asynchronous Human-AI Collaboration in Hybrid and Compute-Intensive HPC Environments	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.72	Brainrot: Deskilling and Addiction are Overlooked AI Risks	arxiv 2026-05-05	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.72	From Barrier to Bridge: The Case for AI Data Center/Power Grid Co-Design	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.72	AI-Generated Smells: An Analysis of Code and Architecture in LLM and Agent-Driven Development	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.72	Post Reasoning: Improving the Performance of Non-Thinking Models at No Cost	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.72	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-05-12	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.72	ROMER: Expert Replacement and Router Calibration for Robust MoE LLMs on Analog Compute-in-Memory Systems	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Will SpaceX complete a Starship integrated test flight reaching orbital insertion by June 14, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-16	246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.72	Will Anthropic release a new model stronger than Haiku 4.5 before June 16?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.72	Will an OpenAI or Anthropic employee comment on this market first?	manifold 2026-06-01	235_047 AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	10%
0.72	SIRI: Self-Internalizing Reinforcement Learning with Intrinsic Skills for LLM Agent Training	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.72	Statistical Priors for Implicit Preferences: Decoupling Skill Selection as a Local Harness in Personal Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Representation Learning Enables Scalable Multitask Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	Catastrophic Forgetting as Accessibility Collapse: A Three-Level Framework for Knowledge Persistence in Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Will anthropic be up a week from now?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.72	What will OpenAI do before IPO that is easier as a private company? [Add answers]	manifold 2026-06-08	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.72	RAILS: Verification-Native Clearing For Agentic Commerce	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_027 Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat banking rails — therefore AI systems will inevitably adopt Bitcoin and scalable cryptographic networks as their native digital capital, operating independently across borders a... Michael Saylor	Crypto	25%
0.72	SynManDex: Synthesizing Human-like Dexterous Grasps from Synthetic Human Pre-Grasps	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2030?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-09	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.72	MARCH: Model-Assisted Reinforcement Learning for the Perceptive Control of Humanoids over Sparse Footholds	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	AI Researchers Must Help Lead Arms Control to Mitigate Military AI Risks	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.72	Embodied-R1.5: Evolving Physical Intelligence via Embodied Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-06-15	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.72	How Inference Compute Shapes Frontier LLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.72	From Trainee to Trainer: LLM-Designed Training Environment for RL with Multi-Agent Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.72	Want Better Synthetic Data? Steer It: Activation Steering for Low-Resource Language Generation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	HALOMI: Learning Humanoid Loco-Manipulation with Active Perception from Human Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Will SpaceX close at a value below its IPO price before the end of 2026?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.72	Will there be an AI war before 2100?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.72	Autonomous Video Generation with Counterfactual Controllability for Self-Evolving World Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	Qwen-AgentWorld: Language World Models for General Agents	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?	manifold 2026-06-25	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.72	Evaluating Japanese Dialect Robustness Across Speech and Text-based Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Spatio-Temporal Retrieval-based Priors for Adaptive Computational Teaching in Driving	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.72	Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-25	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	will an AI get a nobel prize before 2040?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-07-04	SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. Demis Hassabis	AI/AGI	29%
0.72	Decoupling Code Complexity from Newcomer Participation: A Causal Study of AI Coding Agent Adoption in OSS	arxiv 2026-07-02	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	33%
0.72	Hawk: Harnessing Hardware-Aware Knowledge for High-Performance NPU Kernel Generation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	When will consumer AI be able to read me a book	manifold 2026-04-25	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.72	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	AIs and Humans with Agency	arxiv 2026-05-04	241_003 Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet Eric Schmidt	AI	47%
0.72	Learning Reactive Dexterous Grasping via Hierarchical Task-Space RL Planning and Joint-Space QP Control	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Human-AI Co-Evolution and Epistemic Collapse: A Dynamical Systems Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_032 Exponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bottleneck of human progress away from human cognition and toward computational throughput. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	75%
0.72	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.72	Global AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026	manifold 2026-05-14	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.72	Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-15	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.72	Will SpaceX complete a Starship integrated test flight reaching orbital insertion by June 14, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-16	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.72	Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-28	CMQ_016 Post-AGI (2027+), a decade of human-led algorithmic progress will be compressed into ~1 year or less as AGIs automate AI research. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	33%
0.72	Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-28	ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	29%
0.72	June 2026 AI model releases	manifold 2026-05-28	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.72	June 2026 AI model releases	manifold 2026-05-28	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.72	Qwen-VLA: Unifying Vision-Language-Action Modeling across Tasks, Environments, and Robot Embodiments	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will Apple announce a major AI model partnership (e.g., OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic) at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-03	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.72	Reversible Foundations: Training a 120B Sparse MoE through State-Preserving Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	New gemini version out in june(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-08	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	47%
0.72	Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2030?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-09	229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock	Robotics	17%
0.72	LLMs+Graphs: Toward Graph-Native, Synergistic AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	INFRAMIND: Infrastructure-Aware Multi-Agent Orchestration	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.72	IAPO: Input Attribution-Aware Policy Optimization for Tool Use in Small Multimodal Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.72	Will a share of SpaceX be worth $150 or more one year after IPO?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.72	Bounding Boxes as Goals: Language-Conditioned Grasping via Neuro-Symbolic Planning	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Which AI company will release the most impactful new model before September 30, 2026?	manifold 2026-06-13	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.72	SpaceX market cap on December 31 2026?	manifold 2026-06-12	SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley	Space	60%
0.72	SpaceX closes above $250 at end of month?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-16	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.72	From Tokens to Regions: CUDA-Sensitive Instruction Tuning for GPU Kernel Generation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Will SpaceX have a higher market cap than Amazon at the end of 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-17	246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.72	How Inference Compute Shapes Frontier LLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	AI Sandboxes: A Threat Model, Taxonomy, and Measurement Framework	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.72	Zero-Shot Long-Horizon Dexterous Manipulation via Multi-View 3D-Grounded VLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Human-on-the-Loop Orchestration for AI-Assisted Legal Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.72	Diffusion Language Models: An Experimental Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.72	The Correctness Illusion in LLM-Generated GPU Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.72	Low-Energy Reduced RISC-V Instruction Subset Processor for Tsetlin Machine Inference at the Edge	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.72	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 22?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	AI Scientists as Engines of Discovery: A Case for Development within Reformed Institutions	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. Sam Altman	AI	17%
0.72	Sub-Billion, Super-Frontier: Small Language Models Rival Zero-Shot Frontier LLMs on General and Literary Relation Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Any-Body Guard: Universal Safeguarding for Manipulation Policies via Action Masking	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Advancing Omnimodal Embodied Agents from Isolated Skills to Everyday Physical Autonomy	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	PressMimic: Pressure-Guided Motion Capture and Control for Humanoid Robot Imitation	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	When will a humanoid robot be capable of driving?	manifold 2026-06-28	247_043 Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	8%
0.72	RiverONE: Generating Knowledge-Intensive VLM by Simulated Quantum Machines	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.72	EVAF: A Test-Retest Protocol for Selective Parametric Consolidation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	Analytic Concept-Centric Memory for Agentic Embodied Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-07-01	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.72	How Many "CRAZY" Months Will We Get in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.72	Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-07-02	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.72	Hybrid quantum-classical neural network for sentiment analysis	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.72	Will Scaling Improve Social Simulation with LLMs?	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	MAGE: Safeguarding LLM Agents against Long-Horizon Threats via Shadow Memory	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.72	CoRAL: Contact-Rich Adaptive LLM-based Control for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-08	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.72	Pathways to AGI	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.72	Layer Collapse in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.72	Building Interactive Real-Time Agents with Asynchronous I/O and Speculative Tool Calling	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Training ML Models with Predictable Failures	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.72	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-28	INF_044 US total energy consumption will rise by approximately 10% over the next decade — the largest sustained-growth period since mid-20th-century industrialization — driven by AI data centers, electrification of transport, and reindustrialization. Morgan Stanley	Energy	48%
0.72	Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.72	Agents' Last Exam	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.72	From Privacy to Workflow Integrity: Communication-Graph Metadata in Autonomous Agent Interoperability	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.72	Unifying Data, Memory, and Compute Efficiency in LLM training: A Survey	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	When will there be humanoid robots doing paid work outdoors in the US?	manifold 2026-06-12	ROB_008 Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... Morgan Stanley	Robotics	37%
0.72	The Internet of Agentic AI: Communication, Coordination, and Collective Intelligence at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-11	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.72	A Tutorial on World Models and Physical AI	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-06-15	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.72	Can LLM Agents Infer World Models? Evidence from Agentic Automata Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Will Bitcoin close above $150,000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-18	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Hierarchical Control in Multi-Agent Games: LLM-based Planning and RL Execution	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%