Validations Queue

107,075 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 8 of 992, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.75polymarket
2026-03-20
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.75manifold
2026-04-27
235_042
OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks39%
0.75arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.75arxiv
2026-05-04
INF_049
Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon supply — has become the absolute primary bottleneck for AI scalability, and these concentrated power needs cannot be reliably connected to existing public ...
Jensen Huang
Energy50%
0.75polymarket
2026-05-19
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.75manifold
2026-05-30
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.75arxiv
2026-05-28
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.75arxiv
2026-06-01
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.75arxiv
2026-06-01
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.75arxiv
2026-06-05
CYB_006
When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr...
Kevin Weil
AI63%
0.75manifold
2026-06-08
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.75polymarket
2025-10-29
246_005
OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks55%
0.75arxiv
2026-06-09
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.75polymarket
2026-05-19
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.75polymarket
2025-12-05
236_008
First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks53%
0.75manifold
2026-06-12
235_035
Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI22%
0.75arxiv
2026-06-11
ROB_026
Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ...
Alex Finn
Defense77%
0.75manifold
2026-06-11
AUT_007
2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll...
Chamath Palihapitiya
Macro/Economy13%
0.75arxiv
2026-06-30
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.74polymarket
2026-04-01
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.74manifold
2026-05-03
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.74arxiv
2026-05-04
AUT_020
AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag...
MacKenzie Price
Education49%
0.74arxiv
2026-05-07
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.74polymarket
2025-12-29
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.74manifold
2026-06-03
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-05
AUT_010
As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton...
Daniella Amodei
AI56%
0.74manifold
2026-06-09
238_052
$100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)
Elon Musk
Markets/Stocks22%
0.74manifold
2026-06-09
236_020
No robot plumbers or HVAC repair people anytime soon
Andrew Yang
Robotics31%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-09
CYB_006
When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr...
Kevin Weil
AI63%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-09
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.74manifold
2026-06-11
SPC_002
A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o...
Morgan Stanley
Markets/Stocks45%
0.74polymarket
2026-05-20
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.74manifold
2026-06-12
ROB_023
SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026.
Gwynne Shotwell
Space58%
0.74polymarket
2026-05-19
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.74manifold
2026-06-17
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-21
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-22
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-23
INF_007
OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI43%
0.74manifold
2026-06-30
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.74manifold
2026-04-23
246_001
SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks79%
0.74manifold
2026-05-03
241_055
Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space
Peter Diamandis
Space51%
0.74arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.74manifold
2026-05-11
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.74arxiv
2026-05-13
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.74manifold
2026-05-15
234_018
GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI38%
0.74manifold
2026-05-18
248_009
Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy37%
0.74manifold
2026-05-18
ROB_023
SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026.
Gwynne Shotwell
Space58%
0.74manifold
2026-06-01
SEM_032
15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Mathematics9%
0.74polymarket
2026-03-25
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.74polymarket
2025-12-06
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.74polymarket
2026-01-23
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.74polymarket
2025-12-05
248_009
Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy37%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-11
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.74manifold
2026-06-18
INF_020
In-orbit data-center market will reach approximately $1.77 billion by 2029 and grow to approximately $39.1 billion by 2035 — a 67.4% CAGR driven by Starship economics, radiation-hardened TPU hardware, and mega-constellation filings.
BIS Research
Space26%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-24
AI_011
The vast majority of human programmers will be entirely replaced by AI within a single year — future programmer role transitions from debugger to 'conductor' directing autonomous agents to implement complex visions.
Eric Schmidt
Labor/Jobs20%
0.74manifold
2026-06-27
241_033
Few frontier AI companies will be in China
Eric Schmidt
AI47%
0.74polymarket
2025-11-24
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.74manifold
2026-05-01
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.74arxiv
2026-05-06
CYB_006
When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr...
Kevin Weil
AI63%
0.74arxiv
2026-05-06
CYB_006
When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr...
Kevin Weil
AI63%
0.74arxiv
2026-05-12
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.74arxiv
2026-05-14
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.74polymarket
2026-04-30
246_029
Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI47%
0.74manifold
2026-06-11
248_019
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space12%
0.74manifold
2026-06-11
CMQ_014
Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially larger data-center construction.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI/Compute50%
0.74polymarket
2026-05-20
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.74polymarket
2026-05-19
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.74manifold
2026-06-12
SEM_043
SpaceX is actively exploring deployment of data centers in space — seeking regulatory permission immediately as rivals investigate orbital compute.
Gwynne Shotwell
Space/Compute54%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-11
AUT_010
As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton...
Daniella Amodei
AI56%
0.74manifold
2026-06-15
237_009
ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months.
Alex Finn
AI31%
0.74manifold
2026-06-20
SEM_032
15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Mathematics9%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-25
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.74manifold
2026-06-27
238_052
$100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)
Elon Musk
Markets/Stocks22%
0.74manifold
2026-06-26
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.74manifold
2026-06-30
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.74arxiv
2026-07-02
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.74polymarket
2026-04-01
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.74polymarket
2026-04-01
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.74manifold
2026-05-04
CMQ_028
NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026).
Jensen Huang
Semis72%
0.74polymarket
2025-07-08
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.74manifold
2026-05-28
SEM_021
Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs.
Dave Blundin
AI/China45%
0.74manifold
2026-06-03
238_051
If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation)
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks42%
0.74manifold
2026-06-03
CMQ_007
Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030.
Dario Amodei
AI41%
0.74polymarket
2025-11-24
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-04
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-04
CYB_011
Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev...
Alex Finn
Consumer44%
0.74polymarket
2026-05-20
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.74manifold
2026-06-10
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-10
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.74polymarket
2026-03-25
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.74manifold
2026-06-13
234_021
OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027
Peter Diamandis
AI50%
0.74manifold
2026-06-12
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-15
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-14
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-16
CYB_011
Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev...
Alex Finn
Consumer44%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-17
AUT_020
AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag...
MacKenzie Price
Education49%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-21
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-23
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-29
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.74arxiv
2026-06-29
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%