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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-07-03 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 237_030 Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-27 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 34% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 235_028 Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 56% | ||
| 0.59 | Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 243_036 Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | |
| 0.59 | Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.59 | Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | CMQ_005 AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 months (by late 2026) — humans relegated to reviewer/editor role. Dario Amodei | AI | 56% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_025 Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-03 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 34% | ||
| 0.59 | Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 53% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I speak to a human in the next week?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | |
| 0.59 | Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Manifest 2027 have the option to buy tickets using mana?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | |
| 0.59 | Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-07 | COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 33% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-07 | AUT_026 By the 2030s, autonomous nanobots will be deployed directly into the human bloodstream — microscopic autonomous agents acting as internal bio-surveillance network, detecting and repairing cellular damage and biological decline faster than it naturally ... Ray Kurzweil | Biotech/Longevity | 18% | ||
| 0.59 | will i get gold at amm 2026(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will the top HN story have 500+ points when this resolves?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 248_012 AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will the top HN story have 500+ points when this resolves?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.59 | Will SF Prop A, June 2026, pass?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 3⅖(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 231_029 Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. Dave Blundin | Other | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-12 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.59 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 9¾(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-15 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-15 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA)(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.59 | Will I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA)(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-28 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | ||
| 0.59 | Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-24 | CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-24 | ROB_014 White-collar 'bloodbath' could displace up to 40 million US jobs — leading edge already visible with 1.1M+ US job cuts in 2025 where AI was explicitly cited as primary culprit. Without UBI ($1,000/month funded by AI-compute + VAT taxes), automation wav... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 28% | ||
| 0.59 | Will NSSB get delayed by more than 30 minutes?(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.59 | Will this market receive over 67 unique traders before July 1?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.59 | Will at least 3 MOP 2026 staff members say "hi jat" to me on June 7th?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will at least 3 MOP 2026 staff members say "hi jat" to me on June 7th?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | Free Lottery (Planck satellite)(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Free Lottery (Big Bang nucleosynthesis )(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis | Space | 37% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-15 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I reach a streak of 1000?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 231_028 Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.59 | US-Iran deal text released by June 19? [Polymarket](market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will my color-based web game exceed 100 users in a single day?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.59 | Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-18 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | ||
| 0.59 | Will TADC: The Last Act reach 50M YouTube views by July 15, 2026?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | Will silver hit $60/ oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-25 | S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 | robotaxi_deployment | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-20 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 246_051 GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. Peter Diamandis | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-26 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-26 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket](market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-25 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | AI_018 Global data center construction spend will reach approximately $2.9 trillion through 2028 — early adopters of AI infrastructure are already seeing cash-flow-margin expansions at roughly twice the global average. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-07-02 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 242_024 Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values up Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | Will July 2026 in Paris, France be the hottest July Paris has ever had?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-07-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.59 | Do you like 66% odds?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg | Labor/Jobs | 22% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-07-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 29% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Monero trade below $300 during May?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-27 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.59 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% |