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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.64	Dummy Backdoor as a Defense: Removing Unknown Backdoors via Shared Internal Mechanisms for Generative LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	K-Forcing: Joint Next-K-Token Decoding via Push-Forward Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Fibration Trees: A Unified Approach to Multi-Robot Motion Planning	arxiv 2026-06-10	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	KinematicRL: A Sim-to-Real Reinforcement Learning Framework For Social Navigation With Kinodynamic Feasibility	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	MPPI-based Informative Trajectory Planning for Search and Capture of Drifting Targets with ASVs	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	A mathematical framework for centromere-aware evaluation of human genome assemblies	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Automated reproducibility assessments in the social and behavioral sciences using large language models	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	OmniDirector: General Multi-Shot Camera Cloning without Cross-Paired Data	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Optimizing Appliance Scheduling for Solar Energy Management Using Metaheuristic Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_058 The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized solar + residential/commercial battery storage will shift power management toward microgrids where local DNOs optimize autonomously, turning millions of ho... Andrew Yang	Energy	52%
0.64	SmartFont: Dynamic Condition Allocation for Few-Shot Font Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	MOSAIC: Modality-Specific Adaptation for Incremental Continual Learning in Parkinson's Disease Gait Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	A Mathematical Forum Platform for Collaborative Problem Solving and Dataset Generation for AI Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	MARS: Margin-Adversarial Risk-controlled Stopping for Parallel LLM Test-time Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	The Theory of Mind Utility: Formal Specification of a Mentalizing Mechanism	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.64	Emerging Flexible Designs for Geospatial Multimodal Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Operadic consistency: a label-free signal for compositional reasoning failures in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-11	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	27%
0.64	Learning with Simulators: No Regret in a Computationally Bounded World	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Understanding helpfulness and harmless tension in reward models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.64	Quantum Reservoir Computing for Short-Term Power Load Forecasting in Resource-Constrained Energy Systems	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Epistemic Uncertainty Is Not the Reducible Kind	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Boosting Direct Preference Optimization with Penalization	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Low-Latency Real-Time Audio Game Commentary System via LLM-Based Parallel Text Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.64	Evaluating Pluralism in LLMs through Latent Perspectives	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Small LLMs for Biomedical Claim Verification: Cost-Effective Fine-Tuning, Structural Dataset Shortcuts, and Cross-Domain Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.64	Quickest Detection of Hallucination Onset: Delay Bounds and Learned CUSUM Statistics	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.64	Identifiability Without Gaussianity: Symbolic World Models and Near-Infinite Temporal Consistency	arxiv 2026-06-09	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	WT-UMI: Tactile-based Whole-Body Manipulation via Force-Supervised Contact-Aware Planning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Will Anthropic legally challenge the US government directive to suspend access to Fable?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-13	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	When will there be a closed loop life support demonstration on Earth?	manifold 2026-06-14	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will XRP reach $2.80 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	Will the CFTC clear Polymarket for US traders by end of 2027?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.64	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.3.0	github_release 2020-11-11	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Autonomous End-to-End SOH Prediction Services for Battery Systems via Temporal-Contrastive Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_060 Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive paradigm shift away from lithium as the sole foundational element of global energy storage. Elon Musk	Energy	42%
0.64	AdaSTORM: Scaling LLM Reasoning on Dynamic Graphs via Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Multi-Agent Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	RL-Index: Reinforcement Learning for Retrieval Index Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	XAI-Grounded Explanation Generation for Speech Deepfake Detection with Training-Free Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	XAI-Grounded Explanation Generation for Speech Deepfake Detection with Training-Free Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	RecourseBench: A Modular Framework for Reproducible Algorithmic Recourse Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	You Don't Need Strong Assumptions: Visual Representation Learning via Temporal Differences	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	KVEraser: Learning to Steer KV Cache for Efficient Localized Context Erasing	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	ROVE: Unlocking Human Interventions for Humanoid Manipulation via Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	Fantastic Pretraining Optimizers and Where to Find Them II: Hyperball Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Tail-Shape Estimation in LLM Evaluation Is Fragile: A Protocol for Diagnosing False Positives	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	A Mechanistic Understanding of Pronoun Fidelity in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Generative Modeling on Metric Graphs via Neural Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	A Gradient Perspective on RLVR Stability and Winner Advantage Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Auditing Machine Unlearning: A Systematic Research on Whether Models Truly Forget	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Benchmarking LLM Agents on Meta-Analysis Articles from Nature Portfolio	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	LLM-based Visual Code Completion for Aerospace Geometric Design	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.64	T-Rex: Tactile-Reactive Dexterous Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Unified Motion-Action Modeling for Heterogeneous Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	Reinforcement Learning with Inner-loop Dynamics Estimator for Aerial Manipulation under Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	FlashNav: Ultra-Fast Policy Training for Robot Navigation within 20 Seconds	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.64	IUU+DB: Tracking Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing, Seafood Fraud, and Labor Abuse through LLM-driven Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	Using Cognitive Models to Improve Language Model Simulation of Human Persuasion Games	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	From Brewing to Resolution: Tracing the Internal Lifecycle of Code Reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.64	Decoding Hidden Deception in Reasoning LLMs: Activation Explainers for Deception Auditing	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	Deep Reinforcement Learning for Minimum Zero-Forcing Sets	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Where Should Action Generation Begin? A Learnable Source Prior for Generative Robot Policies	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Learning from the Self-future: On-policy Self-distillation for dLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	LLMs Infer Cultural Context but Fail to Apply It When Responding	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Benchmarking LLM Agents on Meta-Analysis Articles from Nature Portfolio	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	A Hybrid Optimization Framework for Grasp Synthesis under Partial Observations	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	MuseVLA: An Adaptive Multimodal Sensing Vision-Language-Action Model for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	WeaveLA: Event Driven Cross-Subtask Latent Memory Weaving for Repetitive Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	DexLink Hand: A Compact, Affordable, 16-DOF Linkage-Driven Hand with Human-Like Dexterity	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	DexLink Hand: A Compact, Affordable, 16-DOF Linkage-Driven Hand with Human-Like Dexterity	arxiv 2026-06-16	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	Agent Utilities over Generalized Voronoi Regions and their Gradients	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Unified Motion-Action Modeling for Heterogeneous Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	UBP2: Uncertainty-Balanced Preference Planning for Efficient Preference-based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	A Clinician-Centered Pipeline for Annotation and Evaluation in Ultrasound AI Studies	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	OrthoReg: Orthogonal Regularization for Hybrid Symbolic-Neural Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Beyond Tokenization: Direct Timestep Embedding and Contrastive Alignment for Time-Series Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	CAPRA: Scaling Feedback on Software Architecture Deliverables with a Multi-Agent LLM System	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.64	Decoupling Search from Reasoning: A Vendor-Agnostic Grounding Architecture for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	APT: Atomic Physical Transitions for Causal Video-Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	The Reward Was in Your Data All Along: Correcting Flow Matching with Discriminator-Guided RL	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Online Reward-Punishment Learning from Fixed-Channel Perceptual Event Streams without Environment Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Low-Cost Neuromorphic Fall Detection Using Synthetic Event Data and Hybrid SNNs	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Measurement noise limits the advantage of nonlinear models over linear models in biomedical prediction	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	SCOPE-FL: A Strategy-proof Chain-based Optimal pareto efficient Federated Learning System	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	HandwritingAgent: Language-Driven Handwriting Synthesis in Scalable Vector Space	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Possible or Definite? A Benchmark for Evaluating Diagnostic Uncertainty Preservation in Clinical Text	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.64	CoreMem: Riemannian Retrieval and Fisher-Guided Distillation for Long-Term Memory in Dialogue Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Constant Time-Delay Leader Following with Neural Networks and Invariant Extended Kalman Filters for Arbitrary Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	PAIWorld: A 3D-Consistent World Foundation Model for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	FDA BLA761105: SKYRIZI (RISANKIZUMAB-RZAA) — ABBVIE INC	fda 2026-06-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	How Do Instructions Shape Speech? Cross-Attention Attribution for Style-Captioned Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	Rethinking Shrinkage Bias in LLM FP4 Pretraining: Geometric Origin, Systemic Impact, and UFP4 Recipe	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	SoftSkill: Behavioral Compression for Contextual Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Optimal Scheduling in a Question-Answering Forum of Knowledge Workers	arxiv 2026-06-18	232_040 Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. Nick Bostrom	AI	19%
0.64	Optimal Scheduling in a Question-Answering Forum of Knowledge Workers	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.64	VOiLA: Vectorized Online Planning with Learned Diffusion Model for POMDP Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	RIVET: Robust Idempotent Voice Attribute Editing	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	StaminaBench: Stress-Testing Coding Agents over 100 Interaction Turns	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	IHBench: Evaluating Post-Interruption Recovery in Voice Agents with Structured Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Uncertainty Decomposition for Clarification Seeking in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	LLM Doesn't Know What It Doesn't Know: Detecting Epistemic Blind Spots via Cross-Model Attribution Divergence on Clinical Tabular Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omniprediction	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	Fisher-Geometric Sharpness and the Implicit Bias of SGD toward Flat Minima	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Pseudo-Feature Padding: A Lightweight Defense Against False Data Injection in Power Grids	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	GEMS: Geometric Constraints Enable Multi-Semantic Superposition in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Doeblin Curves	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Multi-Granular Attention-Driven Reinforcement Learning Framework for Web Intelligent Enhancement Systems	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	MassSpecGym in the Wild: Uncovering and Correcting Evaluation Pitfalls in AI-Driven Molecule Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Insulin4RL: Real-Time Insulin Management in the Intensive Care Unit for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.64	Does Text Actually Help? Uncovering and Resolving Text Collapse in Multimodal Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Self-Preference Is Weak or Absent in Verifiable Instruction-Following Revision: A Four-Model Test Under Genuine Authorship	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Characterizing Narrative Content in Web-scale LLM Pretraining Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	GroundControl: Anticipating Navigation Failures in Vision-Language Agents via Trajectory-Consistent Uncertainty Estimates	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Robust Assembly State Reasoning from Action Recognition for Human-Robot Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	Will France win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 22?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	FDA ANDA205294: DORZOLAMIDE HYDROCHLORIDE (DORZOLAMIDE HYDROCHLORIDE) — FDC LTD	fda 2026-06-10	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	In which month will Apple announce a Mac mini with an M5 series chipset?	manifold 2026-06-21	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.64	Will Truth Social be bought before 2029?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-19	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.64	Federal Reserve (Fed) FOMC decision in July 2026? [2k added subsidy]	manifold 2026-06-23	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	Teaching LLMs String Matching, Backtracking, and Error Recovery to Deduce Bases and Truth Tables for the Combinatorially Exploding Bit Manipulation Puzzles	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Scaling Linear Mode Connectivity and Merging to Billion Parameter Pretrained Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-22	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.64	Kamera: Unified Position-Invariant Multimodal KV Cache for Training-Free Reuse	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Scheduling Thoughts: Learning the Order of Thought in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	CADRE: Stable, Parameter Efficient Adaptation of Medical Vision Language Models with Bounded Forgetting and Prior Drift	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	When Does Intrinsic Self-Correction Help? A Task-Sensitive Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	AdaReP:Adaptive Re-Planning under Model Mismatch for Neural World-Model Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	RaMem: Contextual Reinstatement for Long-term Agentic Memory	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.64	Evolutionary Optimization Reveals Structural Constraints on Reservoir Architecture for Spatiotemporal Chaos	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.64	Closed-loop Auto Research for Molecular Property Prediction: Discovering and Certifying Generalizable Improvements	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Beyond Penalizing Mistakes: Stabilizing Efficiency Training in Large Reasoning Models via Adaptive Correct-Only Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Skin-Deep: A Geometric Diagnostic for Alignment Fragility in Large Language Model Representations	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Convergence of Gradient Descent for General Neural Network Architectures Beyond the NTK Regime	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.64	Incremental Learning in Mirror Flows	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Can LLMs Reliably Self-Report Adversarial Prefills, and How?	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Same question, different history: language, national identity, and credit in large language models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Black-Box Forensics for Conversational LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	BabelJudge: Measuring LLM-as-a-Judge Reliability Across Languages and Agent Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	SamatNext v0.2-B: An Exploratory Study of RMS-Normalized Hybrid Decoders for Curriculum Retention in Small Code Models	arxiv 2026-06-20	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	TSD: A Physics-Inspired Trajectory Saliency Detector for Efficient Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Lessons from the Field: A Case Study of Robotic Intervention in an Industrial Emergency	arxiv 2026-06-22	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	Do Rigid-Body Simulators Dream of Soft Robots? Learning Contact-Rich Manipulation for Tendon-Driven Continuum Robots	arxiv 2026-06-21	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Benchmarking Robot Memory Under Interference	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	facebookresearch/tensor-layouts v0.3.1	github_release 2026-04-22	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.64	facebookresearch/tensor-layouts v0.1.0	github_release 2026-03-17	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Large-Language-Model Discovery of Quantum LDPC Codes through Structured Concept Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.64	Large-Language-Model Discovery of Quantum LDPC Codes through Structured Concept Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Paying to Know: Micro-Transaction Markets for Verified Product Information in Agentic E-Commerce	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_049 Traditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platform distribution will capture monopolistic shares of the consumer AI agent market via deep OS-level integration. Jason Calacanis	AI/Markets	50%
0.64	Scaling Laws for Task-Specific LLM Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Scaling Laws for Task-Specific LLM Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Decentralised AI Training and Inference with BlockTrain	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Probing the Misaligned Thinking Process of Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	An Introduction to Causal Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Beyond Trajectory Imitation: Strategy-Guided Policy Optimization for LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Rapid FinFET Modelling Using an Autoencoder	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	From Task-Guided Conversational Graphs to Goal-Oriented Dialogue Runtimes	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	RE4: Transformation-aware Imitation of Object Interactions Using Manipulation Modes	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Project Ariadne: Prompt-Conditioned Route Generation for Synthesis Planning	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Escaping the Self-Confirmation Trap: An Execute-Distill-Verify Paradigm for Agentic Experience Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Beyond Monotonic Progress: Retry-Supervised Value Learning for Robot Imitation	arxiv 2026-06-23	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.64	Importance of Intent-Sharing for V2X-based Maneuver Coordination	arxiv 2026-06-23	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	cuSBF: A Minimizer-Aware Bloom Filter for Genomic Sequence Data on Modern GPUs	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.44.0	github_release 2026-06-24	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.64	Will the U.S. Gini coefficient (FRED series GINIALLRH) be lower in 2025 than in 2024?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-25	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.64	Will the U.S. Gini coefficient (FRED series GINIALLRH) be lower in 2025 than in 2024?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-25	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.64	FORCE: Efficient VLA Reinforcement Fine-Tuning via Value-Calibrated Warm-up and Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Variable Bound Tightening for Nash Equilibrium Computation in Multiplayer Imperfect-Information Games	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Semantic Consistency Policy Optimization for Reinforcement Learning of LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	LibEvoBench: Probing Temporal Knowledge Stratification in Code Generation Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	UC-Search: Risk-Aware Test-Time Search for Delayed Constrained Time-Series Control	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Stabilizing black-box algorithms through task-oriented randomization	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Knowledge Cascade: Reverse Knowledge Distillation on Nonparametric Multivariate Functional Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Causal-rCM: A Unified Teacher-Forcing and Self-Forcing Open Recipe for Autoregressive Diffusion Distillation in Streaming Video Generation and Interactive World Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Model selection with proper scoring rules on data sets of time series: prefer the mean scaled score	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Diagnosing and Mitigating Compounding Failures in Agentic Persuasion via Taxonomic Strategy Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.64	Towards Continuous Power Forecasting: Practical Continual Learning for Real-World Energy Systems in Nonstationary Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-23	246_041 Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Energy	38%
0.64	AI translation of literary texts is "fine", but readers still prefer human translations	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_007 AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Tracing Target Answers in Poisoned Retrieval Corpora via Token Influence Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	ASSCG: Just-Right Gating over Chattering for Fast-Slow LLM Planning in Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	DynaMOMA: Instantaneous Prediction of Grasp Poses for Mobile Manipulation of Dynamic Objects	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	When Do Conservation Laws Survive Learned Representations? Certified Horizons for Latent World Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 26?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Learning Motion Feasibility from Point Clouds in Cluttered Environments	arxiv 2026-06-25	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	Disco-LoRA: Disentangled Composition of Content, Style, and Motion for Multi-concept Video Customization	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	TGHE: Template-based Graph Homomorphic Encryption for Privacy-Preserving GNN Inference in Edge-Cloud Systems	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	The Inattentional Gap: Task-Conditioned Language and Vision Models Omit the Safety-Critical Signals They Can Otherwise Report	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Multipath Adaptive Gated Bottleneck Latent ODE with Raman Data Fusion for Cell Culture Process Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Temporal Validity in Retrieval Memory: Eliminating Stale-Fact Errors for AI Agents over Evolving Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	An Empirical Study of LLM-Generated Specifications for VeriFast	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	64%
0.64	Unbiased Canonical Set-Valued Oracles Via Lattice Theory	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Narration-of-Thought: Inference-Time Scaffolding for Defeasible Ethical Reasoning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	OpenFinGym: A Verifiable Multi-Task Gym Environment for Evaluating Quant Agents	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_015 Integration of open agentic systems drives near-term 'economic inversion' — arrival of 'AI CEO' in 2026: autonomous algorithmic systems capable of directing capital and labor so efficiently they accumulate billionaire-level wealth. Open-source AI acts ... Emad Mostaque	Macro/Economy	26%
0.64	What We are Missing in Multimodal LLM Evaluation?	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	DanceOPD: On-Policy Generative Field Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Designing Reward Signals for Portable Query Generation: A Case Study in Industrial Semantic Job Search	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Reproducibility Study of "AlphaEdit: Null-Space Constrained Knowledge Editing for Language Models"	arxiv 2026-06-25	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Target-Aware Bandit Allocation for Scalable Surrogate Optimization in Chemical Space	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	At the Edge of Understanding: Sparse Autoencoders Trace The Limits of Transformer Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	The Role of Input Dimensionality in the Emergence and Targeted Control of Adversarial Examples	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	RobOralScan: Learning Active Intraoral Scanning for Robotic Dental Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Improving Vision-Language-Action Model Fine-Tuning with Structured Stage and Keyframe Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	PressMimic: Pressure-Guided Motion Capture and Control for Humanoid Robot Imitation	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Tactile-WAM: Touch-Aware World Action Model with Tactile Asymmetric Attention	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	A Closed-Form 4-DoF Inter-Robot Pose Estimator using Bearing-only Measurements	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	OSC2Runner: OpenSCENARIO 2.x Compliant High-Fidelity AV Simulation in CARLA	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	OSC2Runner: OpenSCENARIO 2.x Compliant High-Fidelity AV Simulation in CARLA	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Racing a Wheeled Quadruped: Active Load Transfer Mitigation via Model Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 29?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 29?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	The Human Creativity Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	COHORT: Collaborative Orchestration for Hardening via Offensive Replay on Emulated Topologies	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.64	Research Entity Extraction and Topic Detection from UKRI Grant Proposals	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Defending Against Harmful Supervision Hidden in Benign Samples	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	KnowsTFM: Knowledge-Informed Fine-Tuning of Small Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	KnowsTFM: Knowledge-Informed Fine-Tuning of Small Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Beyond Drug Discovery: The Nanotechnology Molecular Optimization (NMO) Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-29	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.64	Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning in StarCraft Micromanagement with Influence Maps and Cluster-based Scripts	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.64	Neural Subspace Reallocation: Continual Learning as Retrieval-Based Subspace Memory Management	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	MuseBench: Benchmarking Intent-Level Audiovisual Arts Understanding in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	AlgoSkill: Learning to Design Algorithms by Scheduling Human-Like Skills	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Pondering the Way: Spatial-perceiving World Action Model for Embodied Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.64	RoAd-RL: A Unified Library and Benchmark for Robust Adversarial Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Experience Graphs: The Data Foundation for Self-Improving Agents	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	DeepTrans Studio: Turning Expert Interventions into Shared Team Knowledge in Agentic Translation Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-29	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	GUICrafter: Weakly-Supervised GUI Agent Leveraging Massive Unannotated Screenshots	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	To Reason or to Fabricate: Reasoning Without Shortcuts via Hint-Anchored Pairwise Aggregation	arxiv 2026-06-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	CAN We Trust Your Results? A Cross-Dataset Study of Automotive IDS Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-29	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	Proofs of Ownership for Machine Learning Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Experience Augmented Policy Optimization for LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Notes on generative modeling: flow matching, diffusion, optimal transport and Schr{ö}dinger bridge	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Theory of Continual Learning Against Data Poisoning Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-29	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Multi-Agentic System Leveraging Open-Source LLMs to Mitigate Disinformation Threats	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	DAIN: Dynamic Agent-Based Interaction Network for Efficient and Collaborative Multimodal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Fast Numbers, Slow Language: Bridging Quantitative and Qualitative Earnings Signals	arxiv 2026-06-29	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.64	How LLMs See Creativity: Zero-Shot Scoring of Visual Creativity with Interpretable Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Resolution Thresholds in VLM Detection of Harmful ASCII Art Across Construction Modes and Languages	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	A Hybrid Framework for Song Lyric Annotation Based on Human-LLM Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-28	241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.64	RoamFlow: Reinforcement-Aligned One-Step Action MeanFlow Policy for Image-Goal Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Normalizing Flow-Enhanced Message Passing for Multirobot Collaborative Localization	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Krylov Complexity in Non-Inertial Quantum Systems	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on July 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) (CIK 0001758009)	edgar_8k 2026-06-30	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	42%
0.64	AdaJEPA: An Adaptive Latent World Model	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Harnessing Textual Refusal Directions for Multimodal Safety	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	Low-dimensional topology of deep neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-30	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Beyond the Expressivity-Trainability Paradox: A Dynamical Lie Algebra Perspective on Navigating Barren Plateaus in Quantum Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-30	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Beyond the Expressivity-Trainability Paradox: A Dynamical Lie Algebra Perspective on Navigating Barren Plateaus in Quantum Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	AETDICE: Unified Framework and Offline Optimization for Nonlinear Multi-Objective RL	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	ComplianceGate: Classifier-Gated Multi-Tier LLM Routing for Inference in Regulated Industries	arxiv 2026-06-30	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	MSNN-LINet: Cross-Modal Learning via Continuous Linear Integration	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Offline Reinforcement Learning for Fluid Controls: Data-based Multi-observational Policy Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Using AI Agents to Automate Black-Box Audits of Personalization Algorithms at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.64	Predictable GRPO: A Closed-Form Model of Training Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	FDA ANDA218307: OSELTAMIVIR PHOSPHATE (OSELTAMIVIR PHOSPHATE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-25	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Staleness-Learning Rate Scaling Laws for Asynchronous RLHF	arxiv 2026-07-01	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.64	Message Passing Enables Efficient Reasoning	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Task-Relevant Representation Decoupling for Visual Reinforcement Learning Generalization	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Measuring Dead Directions: Decomposing and Classifying Singular Structure off Canonical Alignment	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Active-GRPO: Adaptive Imitation and Self-Improving Reasoning for Molecular Optimization	arxiv 2026-07-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Interpretable vs Learned Encoders for High-Cardinality Fraud Detection	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	EPC: A Standardized Protocol for Measuring Evaluator Preference Dynamics in LLM Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Leveraging Multimodality for Real-Time Classification of Transients and Variables found by the Zwicky Transient Facility	arxiv 2026-06-30	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.64	Beyond the Expressivity-Trainability Paradox: A Dynamical Lie Algebra Perspective on Navigating Barren Plateaus in Quantum Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-30	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Beyond the Expressivity-Trainability Paradox: A Dynamical Lie Algebra Perspective on Navigating Barren Plateaus in Quantum Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	FDA ANDA091691: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — REGCON HOLDINGS	fda 2026-06-22	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 29-July 5?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	What LLM Agents Say When No One Is Watching: Social Structure and Latent Objective Emergence in Multi-Agent Debates	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	ACID: Action Consistency via Inverse Dynamics for Planning with World Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	ART for Diffusion Sampling: Continuous-Time Control and Actor-Critic Learning	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	An Efficient vLLM-Based Inference Pipeline for Unified Audio Understanding and Generation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Evidence-State Rewards for Long-Context Reasoning	arxiv 2026-07-02	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.64	Prompt Coverage Adequacy	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Towards Load-Aware Prefill Deflection for Disaggregated LLM Serving	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.64	Fourier Neural Operators for Rayleigh-Bénard Convection	arxiv 2026-07-02	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.64	Liquid Latent State Dynamics for Interpretable Turbofan Degradation Modeling	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Certified World Models as Sensing Clocks: Drift-Aware Deadlines for Active Perception	arxiv 2026-07-01	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.64	Unlocking Speech-Text Compositional Powers: Instruction-Following Speech Language Models without Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	NEUROSYMLAND: Neuro-Symbolic Landing-Site Assessment for Robust and Edge-Deployable UAV Autonomy	arxiv 2026-07-02	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Affinage: genome-scale mechanistic gene annotation from the published literature	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	facebookresearch/nevergrad 1.0.8	github_release 2024-12-01	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 6-12?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the UK pass legislation that imposes binding rules on the most powerful AI models being developed, before 2027?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-07-06	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.64	facebookresearch/NeuralCompression v0.3.0	github_release 2023-08-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 7?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-07-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bryan Johnson discover a cure to autoimmune gastritis before 2040?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-07-06	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.64	TREK: Distill to Explore, Reinforce to Refine	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Shifting from Discrete to Continuous Reference Data: QSM-Derived Horizontal Tree Biomass Distribution for Deep Learning Biomass Estimation	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	MoP-JEPA: Hard-Assigned Predictor Mixtures for Stochastic JEPA World Models	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Rethinking On-Policy Self-Distillation for Thinking Models	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	CARL: Constraint-Aware Reinforcement Learning for Planning with LLMs	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Do Vision-Language-Action Models Mean What They Say? On the Role of Faithfulness in Embodied Reasoning	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Agentic-V2X: Small Language Model Agents for Deadline-Aware V2X Scheduling in 5G/6G Networks	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Parametric Memory Decoding for Zero-Shot Routing in LoRA-Based External Parametric Memory	arxiv 2026-07-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Computing Monetary Risk Measures in Linear Time	arxiv 2026-07-06	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.64	RL-Ballast: Ship Ballast Water Path Planning and Clog Prediction via Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-07-06	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	RL Forgets! Towards Continual Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-07-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Quantize the Target, Quantize the Drafter: Efficient Inference with Qwen3.5-4B	arxiv 2026-07-05	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.64	Streaming Neural Speech Codecs through Time-Invariant Representations	arxiv 2026-07-06	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Curated retrieval versus open web search in public AI information services: a coverage-trust trade-off	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.64	DuplexChat: Constructing Speaker-Separated Full-Duplex Dialogue Speech at Scale for Spoken Dialogue Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	Semantic Homogenization in Italian Popular Music: A Diachronic Analysis	arxiv 2026-07-06	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Socially-Aware Autonomous Doorway Traversal and Payload Delivery for Emergency Assistance	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_011 An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. Elon Musk	Space	9%
0.64	Spatial Attention: Adapting Execution Horizons for Diffusion Policies via Observation Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	A Perception-Manipulation Robotics System for Food Cutting	arxiv 2026-07-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 8?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-07-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 6-12?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	FootsiesGym: A Fighting Game Benchmark for Two-Player Zero-Sum Imperfect-Information Games	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Data Analysis in the Wild: Benchmarking Large Language Models Against Real-World Data Complexities	arxiv 2026-07-07	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.64	Demonstrating TOFFEE: A Learned System for Synthesizing Data Agent Trajectories at Scale	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	x-Prediction Is All You Need:Training-Free Accelerated Generation via Endpoint Decodability	arxiv 2026-07-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	RoME: Robust Mixture of Low-Rank Experts against Multiple Adversarial Perturbations	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	RoME: Robust Mixture of Low-Rank Experts against Multiple Adversarial Perturbations	arxiv 2026-07-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	IMR: Iterative Mode-World Weighted Regression for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	FirstResearch: Auditable Question Formation for LLM Scientific Discovery Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Physics-Regularized Machine Learning for Proprioceptive Vehicle Localization Using Onboard Sensors	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	PatchOptic for Shared-State LLM Workflows with Projected Views and Verified Structured Updates	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Assessing the Operational Impact of Poisoning Attacks over Augmented 3D Point Cloud Public Datasets for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles	arxiv 2026-07-07	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.64	Black Hole Black Boxes: Numerical Black Hole Metrics via AInstein Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	WordVoice: Explicit and Decoupled Multi-Dimensional Word-Level Control for LLM-Based TTS	arxiv 2026-07-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Curated retrieval versus open web search in public AI information services: a coverage-trust trade-off	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.64	Towards Real-World Applications with an Autonomous Powered Wheelchair	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	RoboTALES: Learning Reasoning-Guided Robot Policies via Task-Aligned Simulated Futures	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Socially-Aware Autonomous Doorway Traversal and Payload Delivery for Emergency Assistance	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_011 An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. Elon Musk	Space	9%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-28	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-25	229_041 Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 2080 up in here.' Brett Adcock	Other	37%
0.64	How many clicks will The Global Counter have by end of May 2026	manifold 2026-04-29	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	How many clicks will The Global Counter have by end of May 2026	manifold 2026-04-29	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.64	elon musk attorney claims openai sam altman stole charity high stakes legal fight begins	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.64	elon musk attorney claims openai sam altman stole charity high stakes legal fight begins	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.64	10729150	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.64		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	—	12%
0.64	boersengang voraus angriff auf nvidia aktie ki spezialist cerebras wagt neuen ipo anlauf an der nasdaq 00 15640811	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.64		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.64	2580710	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.64	2580710	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.64		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 1?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-01	236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	50%
0.64	Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will HackerNews #1 story score go up in 24h?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-03	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.64	Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-05	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.20.0	github_release 2026-02-10	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.88.0	github_release 2026-04-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.3.0	github_release 2022-12-13	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v5.8.0	github_release 2026-05-05	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v5.5.0	github_release 2026-04-02	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc1	github_release 2026-01-08	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc0	github_release 2025-12-01	240_015 Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's play Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v4.57.0	github_release 2025-10-03	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0	github_release 2024-07-11	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 6?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.64	QKVShare: Quantized KV-Cache Handoff for Multi-Agent On-Device LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	ScrapMem: A Bio-inspired Framework for On-device Personalized Agent Memory via Optical Forgetting	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	A Skill-Based AI Agentic Pipeline for Library of Congress Subject Indexing	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Parametrizing Convex Sets Using Sublinear Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Automated Large-scale CVRP Solver Design via LLM-assisted Flexible MCTS	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Posterior-First Neural PDE Simulation: Inferring Hidden Problem State from a Single Field	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.64	Posterior-First Neural PDE Simulation: Inferring Hidden Problem State from a Single Field	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Are you with me? A Framework for Detecting Mental Model Discrepancies in Task-Based Team Dialogues	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	An Empirical Study of Agent Skills for Healthcare: Practice, Gaps, and Governance	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_019 Physical intervention (literally unplugging data centers) may be required once AI agents begin communicating in proprietary, non-human-decipherable languages. Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	16%
0.64	An explainable hypothesis-driven approach to Drug-Induced Liver Injury with HADES	arxiv 2026-05-04	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	Counterfactual Reasoning in Automated Planning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Task Vector Geometry Underlies Dual Modes of Task Inference in Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	Task Vector Geometry Underlies Dual Modes of Task Inference in Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Expanding functional protein sequence space using high entropy generative models	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	The Right Answer, the Wrong Direction: Why Transformers Fail at Counting and How to Fix It	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.64	OGPO: Sample Efficient Full-Finetuning of Generative Control Policies	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Rose-SQL: Role-State Evolution Guided Structured Reasoning for Multi-Turn Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	FunFuzz: An LLM-Powered Evolutionary Fuzzing Framework	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	GRAIL: A Deep-Granularity Hybrid Resonance Framework for Real-Time Agent Discovery via SLM-Enhanced Indexing	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	DynoSLAM: Dynamic SLAM with Generative Graph Neural Networks for Real-World Social Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	FDA ANDA219072: CARBAMAZEPINE (CARBAMAZEPINE) — YICHANG HUMANWELL	fda 2026-04-17	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	facebookresearch/neuroai v0.2.0	github_release 2026-05-06	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-07	247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin	AI	41%
0.64	Self-Induced Outcome Potential: Turn-Level Credit Assignment for Agents without Verifiers	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models for Tweet Sentiment Classification: A Case Study on the Sentiment140 Dataset	arxiv 2026-05-06	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Open-Source Image Editing Models Are Zero-Shot Vision Learners	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	When to Think, When to Speak: Learning Disclosure Policies for LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	FDA ANDA216992: DEFLAZACORT (DEFLAZACORT) — UPSHER SMITH LABS	fda 2026-04-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA218872: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA NDA202667: COSOPT PF (DORZOLAMIDE HYDROCHLORIDE) — THEA PHARMA	fda 2026-04-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.25	github_release 2024-03-15	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.25	github_release 2024-03-15	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Fed rate hike in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-08	235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	52%
0.64	Are We Making Progress in Multimodal Domain Generalization? A Comprehensive Benchmark Study	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	The Structural Origin of Attention Sink: Variance Discrepancy, Super Neurons, and Dimension Disparity	arxiv 2026-05-07	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	Cross-Modal Navigation with Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Directional Consistency as a Complementary Optimization Signal: The GONO Framework	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Operator-Guided Invariance Learning for Continuous Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Continuous-Time Distribution Matching for Few-Step Diffusion Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Memory Efficient Full-gradient Attacks (MEFA) Framework for Adversarial Defense Evaluations	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Topological Signatures of Grokking	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Is Escalation Worth It? A Decision-Theoretic Characterization of LLM Cascades	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	From Coordinate Matching to Structural Alignment: Rethinking Prototype Alignment in Heterogeneous Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Architecture-agnostic Lipschitz-constant Bayesian header and its application to resolve semantically proximal classification errors with vision transformers	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Weight-Decay Turns Transformer Loss Landscapes Villani: Functional-Analytic Foundations for Optimization and Generalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	SNAPO: Smooth Neural Adjoint Policy Optimization for Optimal Control via Differentiable Simulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.64	A Benchmark for Strategic Auditee Gaming Under Continuous Compliance Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.64	Knowing but Not Correcting: Routine Task Requests Suppress Factual Correction in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Automated Clinical Report Generation for Remote Cognitive Remediation: Comparing Knowledge-Engineered Templates and LLMs in Low-Resource Settings	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	SEQUOR: A Multi-Turn Benchmark for Realistic Constraint Following	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Beyond Steering Vector: Flow-based Activation Steering for Inference-Time Intervention	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Beyond Steering Vector: Flow-based Activation Steering for Inference-Time Intervention	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	A Few Good Clauses: Comparing LLMs vs Domain-Trained Small Language Models on Structured Contract Extraction	arxiv 2026-05-07	247_019 AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contract Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	39%
0.64	Anatomy of a Query: W5H Dimensions and FAR Patterns for Text-to-SQL Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Chainwash: Multi-Step Rewriting Attacks on Diffusion Language Model Watermarks	arxiv 2026-05-06	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	Lie Group Formulation of Recursive Dynamics Algorithms of Higher Order for Floating-Base Robots	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Resource-Constrained Robotic Planning in the face of Mixed Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.64	Leveraging Image Generators to Address Training Data Scarcity: The Gen4Regen Dataset for Forest Regeneration Mapping	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.64	When Life Gives You BC, Make Q-functions: Extracting Q-values from Behavior Cloning for On-Robot Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	ELVIS: Ensemble-Calibrated Latent Imagination for Long-Horizon Visual MPC	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	From Pixels to Tokens: A Systematic Study of Latent Action Supervision for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-08	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 10?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	FDA ANDA072734: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — HIKMA	fda 2026-05-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	US House District 11 November 2026 results conditional market	manifold 2026-05-13	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.64	Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-13	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.64	Solve the Loop: Attractor Models for Language and Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Transferable Delay-Aware Reinforcement Learning via Implicit Causal Graph Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Pretraining Strategies and Scaling for ECG Foundation Models: A Systematic Study	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	Approximation Theory of Laplacian-Based Neural Operators for Reaction-Diffusion System	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	One-Step Generative Modeling via Wasserstein Gradient Flows	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	GRAFT: Graph-Tokenized LLMs for Tool Planning	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	EpiCastBench: Datasets and Benchmarks for Multivariate Epidemic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	SoK: Unlearnability and Unlearning for Model Dememorization	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Taming Extreme Tokens: Covariance-Aware GRPO with Gaussian-Kernel Advantage Reweighting	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable?	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Reducing cross-sample prediction churn in scientific machine learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Dense vs Sparse Pretraining at Tiny Scale: Active-Parameter vs Total-Parameter Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	Children's English Reading Story Generation via Supervised Fine-Tuning of Compact LLMs with Controllable Difficulty and Safety	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Rethinking Generalization in Graph Neural Networks: A Structural Complexity Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Q-Flow: Stable and Expressive Reinforcement Learning with Flow-Based Policy	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Contextual Bandits for Resource-Constrained Devices using Probabilistic Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	MPINeuralODE: Multiple-Initial-Condition Physics-Informed Neural ODEs for Globally Consistent Dynamical System Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	A Hybrid Tucker-LSTM Tensor Network Model for SOC Prediction in Electric Vehicles	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_060 Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive paradigm shift away from lithium as the sole foundational element of global energy storage. Elon Musk	Energy	42%
0.64	AcquisitionSynthesis: Targeted Data Generation using Acquisition Functions	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	JEDI: Joint Embedding Diffusion World Model for Online Model-Based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	FDA NDA205422: REXULTI (BREXPIPRAZOLE) — OTSUKA	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-15	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.64	Forgetting That Sticks: Quantization-Permanent Unlearning via Circuit Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	SpeakerLLM: A Speaker-Specialized Audio-LLM for Speaker Understanding and Verification Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	SpeakerLLM: A Speaker-Specialized Audio-LLM for Speaker Understanding and Verification Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.64	A Hardware-Aware, Per-Layer Methodology for Post-Training Quantization of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	Learning with Shallow Neural Networks on Cluster-Structured Features	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	TILBench: A Systematic Benchmark for Tabular Imbalanced Learning Across Data Regimes	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	REALM: Retrospective Encoder Alignment for LFP Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	GenAI for Energy-Efficient and Interference-Aware Compressed Sensing of GNSS Signals on a Google Edge TPU	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Selective Safety Steering via Value-Filtered Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Agentifying Patient Dynamics within LLMs through Interacting with Clinical World Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.64	Randomized Atomic Feature Models for Physics-Informed Identification of Dynamic Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Analog RF Computing: A New Paradigm for Energy-Efficient Edge AI Over MU-MIMO Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%