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108,318 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 20 of 201, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Cowork be added to the Claude iOS app on June 26, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-26	234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	38%
0.68	E-TTS: A New Embodied Test-Time Scaling Framework for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Semantic Early-Stopping for Iterative LLM Agent Loops	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Adaptive Utility driven Resource Orchestration for Resilient AI (AURORA-AI)	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.68	The Inattentional Gap: Task-Conditioned Language and Vision Models Omit the Safety-Critical Signals They Can Otherwise Report	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Humans Disengage, Reasoning Models Persist: Separating Difficulty Registration from Deliberation Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.68	WatchAct: A Benchmark for Behavior-Grounded Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	PersistentKV: Page-Aware Decode Scheduling for Long-Context LLM Serving on Commodity GPUs	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Optimizing CUDA like a Human: Micro-Profiling Tools as Expert Surrogates for LLM-Based GPU Kernel Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.68	Closing the Quality Gap in Low-Resource Text-to-Speech: LoRA Fine-Tuning of VoxCPM2 for Khmer and Korean	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Soft Token Alignment for Cross-Lingual Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	MESA: Prioritizing Vulnerable Communication Channels for Securing Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-29	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.68	Linguistic Firewall: Geometry as Defense in Multi-Agent Systems Routing	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	ManimAgent: Self-Evolving Multimodal Agents for Visual Education	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.68	HippoSpark: An On-Demand Experience System for LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	SABER-Math: Automated Benchmark for Information Retrieval Evaluation in Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Experience Graphs: The Data Foundation for Self-Improving Agents	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Safety from Honesty in a Disinterested AI Predictor	arxiv 2026-06-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.68	CRAFT: Counterfactual Credit Assignment from Free Sibling Rollouts for Self-Distilled Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	One-Step Gradient Delay is Not a Barrier for Large-Scale Asynchronous Pipeline Parallel LLM Pretraining	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.68	Forensic Trajectory Signatures for Agent Memory Poisoning Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.68	Staged Hybridisation for Visual Quantum Reinforcement Learning via Knowledge Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	MemDelta: Controlled Baselines and Hidden Confounds in Agent Memory Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	56%
0.68	How Much Due Diligence Before You Bid? Learning in Intractable Takeover Auctions	arxiv 2026-06-28	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.68	Are We Measuring Strategy or Phrasing? The Gap Between Surface- and Approach-Level Diversity in LLM Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.68	Are We Measuring Strategy or Phrasing? The Gap Between Surface- and Approach-Level Diversity in LLM Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	How Anthropomorphic Language Impacts Public Perceptions of AI	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Analytic Concept-Centric Memory for Agentic Embodied Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.68	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.68	QVal: Cheaply Evaluating Dense Supervision Signals for Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	ComplianceGate: Classifier-Gated Multi-Tier LLM Routing for Inference in Regulated Industries	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Certified Speculative Execution for Untrusted AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Estimating Supply Incrementality in Two-sided Marketplaces: A Causal Machine Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-06-30	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.68	Using AI Agents to Automate Black-Box Audits of Personalization Algorithms at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.68	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.68	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.68	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-30	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.68	Is One Layer Enough? Training A Single Transformer Layer Can Match Full-Parameter RL Training	arxiv 2026-07-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.68	Theoria: Rewrite-Acceptability Verification over Informal Reasoning States	arxiv 2026-07-01	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.68	Human-Machine Collaboration on Generative Meta-Learning: Model and Algorithm	arxiv 2026-07-01	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.68	Soft Mixture-of-Recursions: Going Deeper with Recursive Vision Transformers	arxiv 2026-07-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	Forensic-Oriented Intrusion Detection Using Synthetic Network Traffic Data and Explainable Artificial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-07-01	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 4?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.68	Lightweight Safe Reinforcement Learning for End-to-End UAV Navigation	arxiv 2026-07-02	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.68	BOUNDARY_SYNC: Measuring Communication-Induced Representational Coupling in Multi-Agent LLM Systems	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	facebookresearch/nevergrad 0.8.0	github_release 2023-07-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	10729180	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.67		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.67	samsung q1 earnings ai memory chip demand profit record.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will @subquadratic 's SubQ "breakthrough" end up mattering in any meaningful way, in 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.67	Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) (CIK 0001860160)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack	Space	33%
0.67	FDA ANDA079162: TOPIRAMATE (TOPIRAMATE) — INVAGEN PHARMS	fda 2026-04-24	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	FDA ANDA207110: BOSENTAN (BOSENTAN) — WATSON LABS INC	fda 2026-04-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.87.0	github_release 2026-03-31	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.84.0	github_release 2026-02-25	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.67	Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	RoboAlign-R1: Distilled Multimodal Reward Alignment for Robot Video World Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	FINER-SQL: Boosting Small Language Models for Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Trustworthy AI Suffers from Invariance Conflicts and Causality is The Solution	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Coordination as an Architectural Layer for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.67	Gradient-Gated DPO: Stabilizing Preference Optimization in Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	GRAIL: A Deep-Granularity Hybrid Resonance Framework for Real-Time Agent Discovery via SLM-Enhanced Indexing	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Sharpness-Aware Pretraining Mitigates Catastrophic Forgetting	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Task-Aware Scanning Parameter Configuration for Robotic Inspection Using Vision Language Embeddings and Hyperdimensional Computing	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	FDA NDA207223: DIACOMIT (STIRIPENTOL) — BIOCODEX SA	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	FDA ANDA205254: ZOLEDRONIC ACID (ZOLEDRONIC ACID) — MYLAN LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.67	Material Database Agent: A Multimodal Agentic Framework for Scientific Literature Mining	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	MASPO: Joint Prompt Optimization for LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	From Agent Loops to Deterministic Graphs: Execution Lineage for Reproducible AI-Native Work	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Post Reasoning: Improving the Performance of Non-Thinking Models at No Cost	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Strat-LLM: Stratified Strategy Alignment for LLM-based Stock Trading with Real-time Multi-Source Signals	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	MAS-Algorithm: A Workflow for Solving Algorithmic Programming Problems with a Multi-Agent System	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Reconstruction or Semantics? What Makes a Latent Space Useful for Robotic World Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Uncertainty Estimation via Hyperspherical Confidence Mapping	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Teaching Thinking Models to Reason with Tools: A Full-Pipeline Recipe for Tool-Integrated Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	MobileEgo Anywhere: Open Infrastructure for long horizon egocentric data on commodity hardware	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Toward Visually Realistic Simulation: A Benchmark for Evaluating Robot Manipulation in Simulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) (CIK 0001045810)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Rescaled Asynchronous SGD: Optimal Distributed Optimization under Data and System Heterogeneity	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Query-Conditioned Test-Time Self-Training for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Teacher-Guided Policy Optimization for LLM Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	N-vium: Mixture-of-Exits Transformer for Accelerated Exact Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	SHM-Agents: A Generalist-Specialist Integrated Agent System for Structural Health Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	AQKA: Active Quantum Kernel Acquisition Under a Shot Budget	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Multi-Dimensional Model Integrity and Responsibility Assessment Index and Scoring Framework	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Will I use pattern/structure/structural/stance/substance/intent/level by 2026-06-15? [Convince the Machine #13](market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-15	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	ESI-Bench: Towards Embodied Spatial Intelligence that Closes the Perception-Action Loop	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Buffer-Parameterized Machine Learning Surrogate Models for Cross-Technology Signal Integrity Analysis and Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.67	One Model, Two Roles: Emergent Specialization in a Shared Recurrent Transformer	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the bitcoin reach ... in 2026 (after market creation on the 25th of May 2026) [ADD ANSWERS] [CRYPTO => USDOLLARS]	manifold 2026-05-25	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.67	Unifying Temporal and Structural Credit Assignment in LLM-Based Multi-Agent Prompt Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	BORA: Bridging Offline Reinforcement Learning and Online Residual Adaptation for Real-World Dexterous VLA Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Dissociative Identity: Language Model Agents Lack Grounding for Reputation Mechanisms	arxiv 2026-05-28	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.67	Teaching Values to Machines: Simulating Human-Like Behavior in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	Network Optimization Aspects of Autonomous Vehicles: Challenges and Future Directions	arxiv 2026-05-28	244_031 Uber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger reality Dara Khosrowshahi	Energy	48%
0.67	Honest Lying: Understanding Memory Confabulation in Reflexive Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	On the Optimizer Dependence of Neural Scaling Laws	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	HEART-Bench: Do LLM Agents Exhibit Human-like Psychology?	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Relevance as a Vulnerability: How Web Retrieval Degrades Safety Alignment in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	LLM-Guided Future Hypotheses for Horizon-Aware Exploration in Multi-Step Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Phase-Conditioned Imitation Learning with Autonomous Failure Recovery for Robust Deformable Object Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.105.2	github_release 2026-05-29	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.67	Will USTC be above $ 0.01 in August 2026(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-31	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.67	Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) (CIK 0001860160)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack	Space	33%
0.67	Iteris: Agentic Research Loops for Computational Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Policy and World Modeling Co-Training for Language Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	When Do Attention Circuits Form? Developmental Trajectories of Capability and Attention-Sink Emergence Across Three 1B-ClassArchitectures	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	WorldCoder-Bench: Benchmarking Physically Grounded 3D World Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	ReSkill: Reconciling Skill Creation with Policy Optimization in Agentic RL	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Coherent Off-Policy Improvement of Large Behavior Models with Learned Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.67	Detection vs. Execution: Single-Bucket Probes Miss Half the Mamba-2 State Sink	arxiv 2026-05-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	By when will two Starships launch within 24h?	manifold 2026-06-03	248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis	Space	58%
0.67	Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-04	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.67	How high will Elons Musk Net Worth get before July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Learning Visual Spatial Planning from Symbolic State via Modality-Gap-Aware Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	The Self-Correction Illusion: LLMs Correct Others but Not Themselves	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Learning of Robot Safety Policies via Adversarial Synthetic Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	UniVoice: A Unified Model for Speech and Singing Voice Generation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.67	Coding with "Enemy": Can Human Developers Detect AI Agent Sabotage?	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_034 Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.67	Coding with "Enemy": Can Human Developers Detect AI Agent Sabotage?	arxiv 2026-06-04	241_009 Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	51%
0.67	Safety Paradox: How Enhanced Safety Awareness Leaves LLMs Vulnerable to Posterior Attack	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	ADK Arena: Evaluating Agent Development Kits via LLM-as-a-Developer	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.67	GenAutoML: An Agentic Framework for Dynamic Architecture Generation and Optimization in Time-Series Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	AsyncWebRL: Efficient Multi-Step RL for Visual Web Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Harnessing Generalist Agents for Contextualized Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	A prism hierarchy of learning regimes in large linear autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-03	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Gradient descent at the Edge of Stability: free energy model and kinetic description of the two-layer network	arxiv 2026-06-03	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.67	Agent Planning Benchmark: A Diagnostic Framework for Planning Capabilities in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Generalization of World Models under Environmental Variability for Vision-based Quadrotor Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.67	FDA ANDA215356: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) (CIK 0001860160)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack	Space	33%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	DuMate-DeepResearch: An Auditable Multi-Agent System with Recursive Search and Rubric-Grounded Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.67	The Sim-to-Real Gap of Foundation Model Agents: A Unified MDP Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Towards Unified Song Generation and Singing Voice Conversion with Accompaniment Co-Generation	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Diagnosing Visual Ignorance in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Data-Constrained Language Model Pretraining: Improved Regularization and Scaling Laws	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Terastal: Layer-Variant-based Scheduling for Real-Time Multi-DNN Workloads on Heterogeneous Accelerators	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	LLM-Guided Evolution for Medical Decision Pipelines	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	A Multi-Operator Mixed-Reality Interface for Multi-Robot Control and Coordination: Co-Located and Private Workspace Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-05	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	SecureClaw: Clawing Back Control of LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Emergence of Context Characteristics Sensitivity in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Harness Engineering for Physical AI: Robot Middleware Is the Harness Layer	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	RunAgent SuperBrowser: A Theory of Autonomous Web Navigation Grounded in Human Browsing Behaviour	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Physics-Guided Sequence-Based Generative Framework for Acoustic Metamaterial Inverse Design	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Momentum for Reasoning: Dense Intrinsic Signals in Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.67	Improved Convergence Analysis of Topology Dependence in Decentralized SGD	arxiv 2026-06-08	234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.67	When Built-in Thinking Helps and Hurts: Constraint-Level Error Shifts in Instruction Following	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Self-Harness: Harnesses That Improve Themselves	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Precision Is Not Faithfulness: Coverage-Aware Evaluation of Grounded Generation with a Complete Oracle	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.67	Scaffold Effects on GAIA: A Controlled Comparison	arxiv 2026-06-07	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.67	Motion planning for hundreds of floating robots	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	LUNA-AD: Lightweight Uncertainty-Aware Language Model with Lifelong Learning for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	RoboNaldo: Accurate, Stable and Powerful Humanoid Soccer Shooting via Motion-Guided Curriculum Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	What Fits (Into Few Tokens) Doesn't Overfit: Compression and Generalization in ML Research Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Beyond Uniform Token-Level Trust Region in LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Recoverable but Not Stationary:Local Linear Structures in Weights and Activations	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	From Perception to Action: Can UI Interventions Foster Sustainable LLM Chatbot	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Dynamic Linear Attention	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Learning What to Remember: Observability-Safe Memory Retention via Constrained Optimization for Long-Horizon Language Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Dmsh: A Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Framework for All-Quad Mesh Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	HIPIF: Hierarchical Planning and Information Folding for Long-Horizon LLM Agent Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	A complementary study on PlanGPT: Evaluation with defined Performance Metrics and comparison with a planner	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	STAGE-Claw: Automated State-based Agent Benchmarking for Realistic Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Prefilling-dLLM: Predictive Prefilling for Long-Context Inference in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	FDA ANDA220458: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	CHORUS: Decentralized Multi-Embodiment Collaboration with One VLA Policy	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Rule Taxonomy and Evolution in AI IDEs: A Mining and Survey Study	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.67	Embodied-BenchClaw: An Autonomous Multi-Agent System for Embodied Spatial Intelligence Benchmark Construction	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.67	AutoMine Solution for AV2 2026 Scenario Mining Challenge	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	AI4Land: Scalable Deep Learning for Global High-Resolution Land Use Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.67	Substrate Asymmetry in User-Side Memory: A Diagnostic Framework	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Sparse probes and murky physics: a case study of interpretability challenges in a foundation model for continuum dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	INFRAMIND: Infrastructure-Aware Multi-Agent Orchestration	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	RoboNaldo: Accurate, Stable and Powerful Humanoid Soccer Shooting via Motion-Guided Curriculum Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	Fourier Features Let Agents Learn High Precision Policies with Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	When Does Language Matter? Multilingual Instructions Reveal Step-wise Language Sensitivity in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.67	Quantifying Subliminal Behavioral Transfer Ratios in Language Model Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	FDA ANDA210692: ATOVAQUONE (ATOVAQUONE) — HETERO LABS LTD III	fda 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will the Oscars loosen rules on AI tool use by 2030?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-11	ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	29%
0.67	MiniMax Sparse Attention	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Who Pays the Price? Stakeholder-Centric Prompt Injection Benchmarking for Real-world Web Agents	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.67	(Human) Attention Is (Still) All You Need: Human oversight makes AI-assisted social science reliable	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_025 Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Agentic MPC for Semantic Control System Resynthesis	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	PI-Hunter: Automated Red-Teaming for Exposing and Localizing Prompt Injections	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Quantizing Time-Series Models As Dynamical Systems: Trajectory-Based Quantization Sensitivity Score	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Normative Robustness as a Frontier for Non-Verifiable Reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Recursive Agent Harnesses	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Low cost, easily manufactured, highly flexible strain and touch sensitive fiber for robotics applications	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will OpenAI delay OR withdraw a model release due to demands by the US US government by EOY 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-13	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.67	Will any the weights for any new Qwen Model >=100B parameters release before 2027(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-12	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	By when will there be an unresupplied crewed spacecraft flight longer than 150 days?	manifold 2026-06-14	S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	50%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Phantoms and Disclosures: a Causal Framework for Auditing Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.67	Scaling LLM Reasoning from Minimal Labels: A Semi-Supervised Framework with a Lightweight Verifier	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Adaptive inference and function vectors in deep transformers	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Entropy-Gated Latent Recursion	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	AI Supply Chain Galaxy: 3D Visual Analytics for License Compliance	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.67	Phys-JEPA: Physics-Informed Latent World Models for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	ExpRL: Exploratory RL for LLM Mid-Training	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Taming Curvature: Architecture Warm-Up for Stable Transformer Training	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	Hidden Degradation Costs in Energy-Cost-Only HEMS Optimisation: Study on Battery and PV Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-06-14	FUT_013 Exponential scaling of modular battery swapping infrastructure (Ample), mass production of clean-energy lithium-ion batteries (Northvolt), and low-GHG shipping + massive high-voltage ultra-long-distance transmission grids become economically viable pur... Ramez Naam	Auto/Transport	44%
0.67	APEX: Adaptive Policy Execution for Precise Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	SAPS: Shared Autonomy for Policy Steering by Blending Teleoperation with a Pretrained VLA	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Anthropic release a non-Fable model before Fable is rereleased?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-17	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.67	How many orbital launches will there be in 2027?	manifold 2026-06-17	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.67	Your AI Travel Agent Would Book You a Bullfight: An Agentic Benchmark for Implicit Animal Welfare in Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	Your AI Travel Agent Would Book You a Bullfight: An Agentic Benchmark for Implicit Animal Welfare in Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	PearlVLA: Progressive Embodied Action-Plan Refinement in Latent Space	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	AnchorKV: Safety-Aware KV Cache Compression via Soft Penalty with a Refusal Anchor	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	SEAGym: An Evaluation Environment for Self-Evolving LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	AUTOGATE: Automated Clock Gating via Toggling-Aware LLM-based RTL Rewriting	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	SoK: AI-Augmented Binary Reversing	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Compositional Skill Routing for LLM Agents: Decompose, Retrieve, and Compose	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	GameCraft-Bench: Can Agents Build Playable Games End-to-End in a Real Game Engine?	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	From Parasocial Scripts to Dyadic Persistence in Autonomous AI-Agent Communities	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	ThinkingVLA: Interleaved Vision and Language Reasoning for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	When Robots Sleep: Offline Skill Consolidation for Shared-Policy Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) (CIK 0001045810)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.67	Trade-offs in Medical LLM Adaptation: An Empirical Study in French QA	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	TxBench-PP: Analyzing AI Agent Performance on Small-Molecule Preclinical Pharmacology	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Spotlight: Synergizing Seed Exploration and Spot GPUs for DiT RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.67	Improving Human-Robot Teamwork in Urban Search and Rescue Through Episodic Memory of Prior Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Leveraging Energy Features for Surface Classification with Deep Learning: A Comparative Analysis Across Three Independent Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Augmenting Dysarthric Speech Severity Assessment with MOS Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.67	Engagement Intensity as a Learner-Modeling Signal for Adaptive AI Ethics Instruction	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_002 Educational systems must pivot from teaching skill acquisition and execution to teaching orchestration of agentic swarms and discovery of purpose — value accrues to individuals who master AI orchestration over traditional knowledge work; rendering trad... Alex Finn	Education	50%
0.67	Your AI Travel Agent Would Book You a Bullfight: An Agentic Benchmark for Implicit Animal Welfare in Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	Your AI Travel Agent Would Book You a Bullfight: An Agentic Benchmark for Implicit Animal Welfare in Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	InTrain: Intrinsic Trainability for Zero-Cost Neural Architecture Search	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Sequential Hiring of Contingent Workers Through Learning-Based Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_028 AI will render approximately 99% of white-collar jobs replaceable within two years — cognitive-labor costs will mathematically approach the marginal cost of electricity required to generate inference. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	14%
0.67	Zero-Shot Long-Horizon Dexterous Manipulation via Multi-View 3D-Grounded VLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?	manifold 2026-06-19	248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis	Space	58%
0.67	UltraQuant: 4-bit KV Caching for Context-Heavy Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Automating SKILL.md Generation for Computer-Using Agents via Interaction Trajectory Mining	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Augmenting Game AI with Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	AI Economist Agent: An Agentic Framework for Model-Grounded Economic Analysis with RAG, Knowledge Graphs, and Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	ORAgentBench: Can LLM Agents Solve Challenging Operations Research Tasks End to End?	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Before the Pull Request: Mining Multi-Agent Coordination	arxiv 2026-06-17	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	20%
0.67	A Tool for the Synthesis of Adaptive Probabilistic Processors Based on the Ising Model	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.67	SSH-Net: A Deep Neural Network for Predicting Failure Time Distribution Functions under Competing Risks with Application to GPU Data	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	TxBench-PP: Analyzing AI Agent Performance on Small-Molecule Preclinical Pharmacology	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	bioETH-Beacon: A Confidential On-Chain Genomic Beacon with Encrypted Counts, Filters, and Bounded Noise over a Fully Homomorphic EVM	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the US be at full employment in December 2026?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-19	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Tapered Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.67	Tapered Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	A Stackelberg Framework for Resource-Aware LLM Agents: Learning, Repair, and Conditional Guarantees	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Attacking the Trusted Imagination: Oracle-Level Integrity Attacks on Imagine-then-Act World Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.67	Beyond Simpson's Paradox: A Cascade of Confounders in AI Agent Pull-Request Co-Authorship	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Deep learning-based detection of cessation of breathing in pre-term infants	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.67	RLM-Cascade: Response-Level Speculative Decoding for Cost-Efficient LLM API Serving	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	TriggerBench: Investigating Prospective Memory for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	IOI: Decoupling Kinematics and Physics for Interactive World Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Integrated cloud-based architecture for robot-robot and human-robot collaboration using ROS 2--MQTT in Mediterranean Greenhouses	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_024 Automated robotics and AI-powered monitoring will establish a global network of BioVaults — a 21st-century high-tech backup plan for life on Earth; as humanity faces potential extinction of nearly half of Earth's species by 2050 due to climate and habi... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	It's Complicated: On the Design and Evaluation of AI-Powered AAC Interfaces	arxiv 2026-06-23	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.67	Can Scale Save Us From Plasticity Loss in Large Language Models?	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.67	Can Scale Save Us From Plasticity Loss in Large Language Models?	arxiv 2026-06-23	230_038 AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Age of LLM: A Strategic 1v1 Benchmark for Reasoning, Diplomacy and Reliability of Large Language Models under Fog of War	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Cryptographic certificates of validity for trustworthy AI	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Parallel Manifold Steering: Efficient Adaptation of Large Associative Memories via Residual Energy Shaping	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	When Top-1 Fails: Calibrating LoRA Monitors for Masked Diffusion LMs	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	FT-WBC: Learning Fault-Tolerant Whole-Body Control for Legged Loco-Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	TurboMPC: Fast, Scalable, and Differentiable Model Predictive Control on the GPU	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.67	Do Encoders Suffice? A Systematic Comparison of Encoder and Decoder Safety Judges for LLM Adversarial Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	GUI agent: Guided Exploration of User-Sensitive Screens	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Brevity is the Soul of Inference Efficiency: Inducing Concision in VLMs via Data Curation	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Reliability-Asymmetric Spacecraft Autonomy: Co-Designing a Capable Learned GNC Stack with a Verified, Adaptation-Aware Runtime Shield	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	SoK: AI Secure Code Generation: Progress, Pitfalls, and Paths Forward	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	The Inference-Compute Frontier and a Latency-Efficient Architecture for Limit Order Book Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.67	Memory-Efficient Policy Libraries with Low-Rank Adaptation in Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	How Complexity Contributes to Learning Opacity in Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Memory Retrieval in Visuomotor Policies for Long-Horizon Robot Control	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	RGB: RL Guided Whole-Body MPPI for Humanoid Control	arxiv 2026-06-23	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Look-Before-Move: Narrative-Grounded World Visual Attention in Dynamic 3D Story Worlds	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Radical AI Interpretability	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Clinical Harness for Governable Medical AI Skill Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.67	DMuon: Efficient Distributed Muon Training with Near-Adam Overhead	arxiv 2026-06-25	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	Attributed, But Not Incremental: Cannibalization-Corrected Attribution for Large-Scale Advertising	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	LMs as Task-Specific Knowledge Bases: An Interpretability Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Scalable Behavior Cloning with Open Data, Training, and Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	PAMAE: Phase-Aware-MoE Action Experts Towards Reliable Flow-Matching Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	ForesightSafety-VLA: A Unified Diagnostic Safety Benchmark for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	ForesightSafety-VLA: A Unified Diagnostic Safety Benchmark for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.67	Improving Vision-Language-Action Model Fine-Tuning with Structured Stage and Keyframe Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Self-Evolving World Models for LLM Agent Planning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	SWE-Together: Evaluating Coding Agents in Interactive User Sessions	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	On the Vulnerability of Parameter-Level Defenses to Model Merging	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	How Far Do On-Prem Open LLMs Get on Text-to-SQL? A Cross-Family Size x Technique Frontier on BIRD	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.67	The Mirage of Optimizing Training Policies: Monotonic Inference Policies as the Real Objective for LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Exploring the Cryptographic Limits of Transformer Networks	arxiv 2026-06-28	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	Towards Physical Intuitions for Alignment Dynamics: A Case Study With Randomness Crystallization	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	REPAIR-Bench: A Benchmark for Robot Error Perception And Interaction Recovery	arxiv 2026-06-29	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.67	Legible Shared Autonomy: Implicit Communication of Robot Belief through Motion	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.115.0	github_release 2026-06-30	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on July 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) (CIK 0001045810)	edgar_8k 2026-06-30	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.67	Think in English, Answer in Korean: Efficient Adaptation of Multilingual Tool-Using Agents	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	Mixture-of-Control: State-Aware Fine-Tuning for Transformer-based Models	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	From Idea to Prototype in an Afternoon: Scaffolded, AI-Assisted Rapid VA Prototyping	arxiv 2026-06-30	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.67	The Calibration Turn in AI-Assisted Research: A Conceptual and Methodological Framework for Evidence-Licensed Claims	arxiv 2026-06-30	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.67	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	Valdi: Value Diffusion World Models	arxiv 2026-07-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	MolSafeEval: A Benchmark for Uncovering Safety Risks in AI-Generated Molecules	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Testing Frontier Large Language Models' Physics Literacy in Parallel Physical Worlds	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	CogTax: A Four-Level Cognitive Taxonomy for Command-Line Computing Education	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) (CIK 0001045810)	edgar_8k 2026-07-02	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.67	Episodic-to-Semantic Consolidation Without Identity Drift	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	CLAP: Closed-Loop Training, Evaluation, and Release Control for Domain Agent Post-training	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	Mixture-of-Parallelisms: Towards Memory-Efficient Training Stack for Mixture-of-Experts Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	Repair the Amplifier, Not the Symptom: Stable World-Model Correction for Agent Rollouts	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	COMFYCLAW: Self-Evolving Skill Harnesses for Image Generation Workflows	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Geometric Signatures of Reasoning: A Spectral Perspective on Task Hardness	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Will Scaling Improve Social Simulation with LLMs?	arxiv 2026-07-02	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-05	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-02-08	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	micron technology growth exploding why 135145048.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.67	micron technology growth exploding why 135145048.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.67	meta beats estimates but soaring ai spending rattles investors 1091449.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.67	big tech earnings microsoft ai investment capex plan 2026 4	gdelt 2026-04-30	CYB_018 Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.67	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.67	Which Rocket Launches Next? III	manifold 2026-04-30	248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. Peter Diamandis	Space	79%
0.67	Will NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day mention the Moon when this resolves?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-04-30	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 1?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Anthropic announces dedicated "Operon" tool for bio/health/other research before June 1, 2026(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Bitcoin $67K in May?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will I get an AI lab offer?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-02	241_039 In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead Eric Schmidt	AI	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 3?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.67	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.67	Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.67	What will Bitcoin hit first: $75k or $85k	manifold 2026-05-05	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.67	FDA NDA210655: PERSERIS KIT (RISPERIDONE) — INDIVIOR	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.96.0	github_release 2026-04-16	246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis	AI	76%
0.67	huggingface/transformers v5.3.0	github_release 2026-03-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Contextual Multi-Objective Optimization: Rethinking Objectives in Frontier AI Systems	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Deco: Extending Personal Physical Objects into Pervasive AI Companion through a Dual-Embodiment Framework	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	Before Forgetting, Learn to Remember: Revisiting Foundational Learning Failures in LVLM Unlearning Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Robust Agent Compensation (RAC): Teaching AI Agents to Compensate	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Robust Agent Compensation (RAC): Teaching AI Agents to Compensate	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	When Agents Handle Secrets: A Survey of Confidential Computing for Agentic AI	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_026 Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ... Alex Finn	Defense	77%
0.67	Pact: A Choreographic Language for Agentic Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Pact: A Choreographic Language for Agentic Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	HAAS: A Policy-Aware Framework for Adaptive Task Allocation Between Humans and Artificial Intelligence Systems	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	A Domain Incremental Continual Learning Benchmark for ICU Time Series Model Transportability	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.67	Do LLMs have core beliefs?	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.67	MolmoAct2: Action Reasoning Models for Real-world Deployment	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Change-Robust Online Spatial-Semantic Topological Mapping	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	FDA ANDA090263: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — CHARTWELL MOLECULAR	fda 2026-04-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	FDA ANDA213405: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — TORRENT	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.2	github_release 2019-05-30	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.67	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.25	github_release 2024-03-15	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	MASPO: Joint Prompt Optimization for LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Process Matters more than Output for Distinguishing Humans from Machines	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_015 The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen resumes generated by other bot agents, completely removing the human connection required to accurately assess contextual experience — bot-on-bot recursive... Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	86%
0.67	Memory Efficient Full-gradient Attacks (MEFA) Framework for Adversarial Defense Evaluations	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	More Than Can Be Said: A Benchmark and Framework for Pre-Question Scientific Ideation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	CoupleEvo: Evolving Heuristics for Coupled Optimization Problems Using Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Back to the Beginning of Heuristic Design: Bridging Code and Knowledge with LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	On Time, Within Budget: Constraint-Driven Online Resource Allocation for Agentic Workflows	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.67	Normalized Architectures are Natively 4-Bit	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	PragLocker: Protecting Agent Intellectual Property in Untrusted Deployments via Non-Portable Prompts	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.67	Quantum-enhanced Large Language Models on Quantum Hardware via Cayley Unitary Adapters	arxiv 2026-05-07	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.67	Matrix-Valued Optimism is Matrix-Valued Augmentation: Additive Hybrid Designs for Constrained Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	MiA-Signature: Approximating Global Activation for Long-Context Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Lie Group Formulation of Recursive Dynamics Algorithms of Higher Order for Floating-Base Robots	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Toward Visually Realistic Simulation: A Benchmark for Evaluating Robot Manipulation in Simulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Modular Reinforcement Learning For Cooperative Swarms	arxiv 2026-05-06	246_049 Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	FDA NDA218316: WEGOVY (SEMAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Multi-Narrow Transformation as a Single-Model Ensemble: Boundary Conditions, Mechanisms, and Failure Modes	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-05-14	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.67	GHGbench: A Unified Multi-Entity, Multi-Task Benchmark for Carbon Emission Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.67	MARLIN: Multi-Agent Game-Theoretic Reinforcement Learning for Sustainable LLM Inference in Cloud Datacenters	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Finding the Weakest Link: Adversarial Attack against Multi-Agent Communications	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.67	Finding the Weakest Link: Adversarial Attack against Multi-Agent Communications	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.67	TopoPrimer: The Missing Topological Context in Forecasting Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Interestingness as an Inductive Heuristic for Future Compression Progress	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.67	GenCircuit-RL: Reinforcement Learning from Hierarchical Verification for Genetic Circuit Design	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Bella Poarch - Ribcage (Official Music Video) on youtube will reach above 3M views before the end of May 2026??(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-18	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.67	Position: Weight Space Should Be a First-Class Generative AI Modality	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	Hybrid Quantum-Classical Neural Architecture Search	arxiv 2026-05-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.67	Hybrid Quantum-Classical Neural Architecture Search	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	Agent Bazaar: Enabling Economic Alignment in Multi-Agent Marketplaces	arxiv 2026-05-17	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.67	30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.67	Automating Low-Risk Code Review at Meta: RADAR, Risk Calibration, and Review Efficiency	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_047 Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on complex scientific experimentation without human-in-the-loop. Andrej Karpathy	AI	51%
0.67	Agora: Toward Autonomous Bug Detection in Production-Level Consensus Protocols with LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.67	Evolutionary Dynamics of Cooperation in Next-Generation LLM Agent Systems: A Cross-Provider Empirical Extension	arxiv 2026-05-28	231_003 Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.67	Training Deliberative Monitors for Black-Box Scheming Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	Convergence Theory for Iterative LLM-Based Neural Architecture Search: A Parametric Cross-Entropy Framework with Closed-Form Proxy Reliability	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Understanding Safety-Sensitive Expert Behavior in Mixture-of-Experts LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.105.2	github_release 2026-05-29	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	2nd largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.67	Largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	2nd largest company end of August 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.67	Largest company end of August 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.67	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.67	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	From Layers to Submodules: Rethinking Granularity in Replacement-Based LLM Compression	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Monitoring Agentic Systems Before They're Reliable	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.67	AgentRedBench: Dynamic Redteaming and Integration-Aware Defense for LLM Agents over SaaS Integrations	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.67	AutoMedBench: Towards Medical AutoResearch with Agentic AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.67	Dynamic Trust-Aware Sparse Communication Topology for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Consensus	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Post-Deterministic Distributed Systems: A New Foundation for Trustworthy Autonomous Infrastructure	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_027 Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat banking rails — therefore AI systems will inevitably adopt Bitcoin and scalable cryptographic networks as their native digital capital, operating independently across borders a... Michael Saylor	Crypto	25%
0.67	Coherent Off-Policy Improvement of Large Behavior Models with Learned Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Edge-aware Decoding for Neural Asymmetric Routing	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	Continual Learning as a Multiphase Moving-Boundary Problem	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Mos-Gen: A Generative Molecular Framework for Mosquito Insecticide Design	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.67	Unified Context Evolution for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	AI as a Tool for Simulation-Based Experiments in Literary Studies	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Distilling Neuro-Symbolic Programs into 3D Multi-modal LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Thinking Economically: A Hierarchical Framework for Adaptive-Complexity Reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%