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116,327 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 81 of 112, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (cosmic voids)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 236_033 Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours Andrew Yang | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the US reintroduce naval blockade before July?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.58 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (inflationary expansion)(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 239_030 1000x current economy would saturate human desires Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-19 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (dark matter)(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-19 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 243_002 Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 71% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Messi play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | Will I be promoted to Gold league or higher by the time my league closes(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-25 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-23 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-20 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.58 | Does the Fed rate change in July?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Does the Fed rate change in July?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 40% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 6?(market prob: 100%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 231_045 Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash. Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-29 | AI_003 AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decade to reach $100 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) into just 12-24 months — an unprecedented monetization velocity. Dario Amodei | Macro/Economy | 52% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-28 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Will anyone finish five chicken bowls in 20 minutes at RSI 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.58 | Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Sony release a new Playstation game on a disc in the year 2028?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 22% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-05 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-05 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-07-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-07 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will MAA release cutoff scores for USA(J)MO ever again?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-08 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-08 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-07-08 | SPC_023 Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... Sam Altman | AI | 18% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt | Energy | 48% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb | AI | 62% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 241_041 Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers Eric Schmidt | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will the face of Jose Luis Ricon be minted on a physical coin by 2222(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% |