Validations Queue
116,327 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 79 of 224, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-04 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.62 | Will I speak to a human in the next week?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.62 | I go through the scaling book this week?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | |
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 902(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-09 | AI_020 NVIDIA will launch a 'space computing' push via the specialized Vera Rubin Space Module — bringing AI infrastructure, geospatial intelligence, and autonomous operations into low Earth orbit, then to autonomous lunar manufacturing bases. NVIDIA | Space | 36% | ||
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 59752(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.62 | BTC closes above $85k at end of month?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 240_016 Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.62 | will there be a new llm release by the end of may?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.62 | Will AI psychosis make it into the DSM6?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_024 AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 46% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 241_063 America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.62 | Do you like 2% odds?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk | Other | 50% | |
| 0.62 | before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | |
| 0.62 | Will Unicode remove an existing emoji before the end of 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will there be a physical protest at Discord headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.62 | Will this market get between 75-150 unique traders?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.62 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 236_010 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | |
| 0.62 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Will I meet a trader on this market at Manifest 2026?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will I make USA TST Group 2027?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-13 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-13 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.62 | Will I reach a streak of 1000?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-17 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | pltr up in 1 month(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Will Elon musk live to see humanity become a Kardashev 3 civilization?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | SPC_026 Humanity becoming a truly multiplanetary species is strictly an era BEYOND the singularity (post-2045) — Kurzweil asserts only after humanity has 'exhausted the ability of here on Earth to create more intelligence' will the focus shift definitively to ... Ray Kurzweil | Space | 46% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 29% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.62 | [Kalshi] 21st Century ROAD to Housing law becomes law this year?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-25 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.62 | Silver price above $90 in July 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% |