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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Croatia (-2.5)(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.60 | Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Iraq reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-26 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.60 | Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-11-24 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.60 | Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Ecuador?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advance(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs Alliance (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Croatia?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Croatia?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Austria score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Austria score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: France (-1.5)(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Otto Lopez hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Paraguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: United States (-1.5)(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: United States (-1.5)(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.60 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2025-11-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.60 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-22 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: TheBoys vs maybe (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #6 Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: France (-1.5)(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: maybe vs Tricksters - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Team Heretics win the EWC Valorant Tournament(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.60 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-08 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.60 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.60 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 61% | |
| 0.60 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Starmer out by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-07-11 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.60 | Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2025-07-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Trump out as President by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Rockets (-4.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Sabres vs. Bruins(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.60 | Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.60 | LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)(market prob: 69%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)(market prob: 69%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Knicks (-6.5)(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-02-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5)(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.60 | Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-01-22 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will David Njoku play for Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.60 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.60 | Monaco vs. Nanterre(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will CD Real Tomayapo vs. Club ABB end in a draw?(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | |
| 0.60 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.60 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-07 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | ||
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 241_040 A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act Eric Schmidt | AI | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.60 | Will Miami Marlins win the 2026 NL East title?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-19 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: United States (-2.5)(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: United States (-2.5)(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% |