Validations Queue
114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 67 of 222, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
114,087
Reviewed
13
Filtered
11,051
page 67 / 222
Showing on page
50
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.63 | Am I a brain in a vat?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | |
| 0.63 | Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Jesus return on November 25 2026(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-10 | COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 33% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.63 | Will June 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.63 | Will June 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I make mana on this market?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 16% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 239_021 Money will stop being relevant at some point Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.63 | Will this market get 20-30 unique traders by June 29?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.63 | Will anyone other than me make mana on this market?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 16% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-18 | IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the S&P 500 close above 7000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-17 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-22 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 244_018 In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.63 | Will typical Americans be able to use GPT-5.6 Sol before Fable 5 again?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 246_051 GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. Peter Diamandis | AI | 35% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-26 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-07-06 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Bryan Johnson discover a cure to autoimmune gastritis before 2040?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.63 | Macron president by 2100(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-07-08 | 230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis | AI | 44% | |
| 0.63 | Will my Manifold be able to turn a profit this week?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.63 | will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will GameStop buy / aquire eBay until end of 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will I have a market with more than 21 traders in May?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.63 | I go through the scaling book this week?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 28% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | ai_regulatory_pause | 5% | |
| 0.63 | Will this market close between 60% - 70%(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 16% | ||
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-13 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% |