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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-19 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 34% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-22 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $76 on June 29, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the linked Aella market resolve YES?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.61 | Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.61 | WIIL I get first of my bronze league this week? 🩶(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 234_005 Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decade Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.61 | will IMO(math) 2026 problem 1 day 1 is a geometry?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | 232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-28 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the Democratic Nominee in 2028 say “genocide”?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.61 | Fable reenabled for Europeans before the first of August 2026?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2031(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.61 | 2026 World Cup R32: Will Spain beat Austria by 2+ goals?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will someone manipulate a fire market?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 241_013 Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects Eric Schmidt | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will this market get 50-100 unique traders by the end of July?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.61 | Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-03 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-03 | ROB_002 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primary human bottleneck in digital creation, making the automation of the AI researcher by 2027 a mechanical certainty. Kevin Weil | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-05 | AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-07 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-06 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.61 | Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.61 | Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-27 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.61 | Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 248_025 Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-24 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.61 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 36% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.61 | Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-05 | CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel | AI/Compute | 92% | ||
| 0.61 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? [Polymarket](market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | US x China tariff agreement by May 31st? [Polymarket](market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.61 | Free Lottery (Cosmic Explorer)(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | Trump meets Xi Jinping again in 2026?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-10 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | 2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | ||
| 0.61 | Do you like 2% odds?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.61 | Do you like 2% odds?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg | Labor/Jobs | 22% | |
| 0.61 | Will Chainlink go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35?(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin | AI | 42% | |
| 0.61 | Will Brent crude futures close above $110 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.61 | Will I get catch an illness before Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.61 | Will more than 25,000 games be released on Steam this year?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.61 | Will a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.61 | Will I comment on this market?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | ai_regulatory_pause | 5% | ||
| 0.61 | Confirmed Ebola case in North America by EOY 2026?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-24 | INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk | Energy | 62% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.61 | Will this market get between 50-100 unique traders?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 29% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 243_032 Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 48% | ||
| 0.61 | Will I bet on this market?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Brazil 2026 Election: Will Brazil’s third way fail the 10% test?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-01 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.61 | US Gas Price $4.250 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will someone send me 1000 or more mana before this market closes?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.61 | Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Nathan (NotARoomba) say 67 before 8th Jun(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the S&P500 be down greater than 1% in a week?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.61 | Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% |