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111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 44 of 110, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-08 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-08 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 229_012 Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. Kevin Weil | AI/Agents | 74% | ||
| 0.61 | Will I be promoted to Mana Gold by 12 am May 31, 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_039 Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 36% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-19 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 28% | ||
| 0.61 | Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Ethereum trade below $1700 in June?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.61 | Will Ethereum trade below $1700 in June?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.61 | Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | Will June 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Starmer out before December?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 34% | |
| 0.61 | Free Lottery (Big Bang nucleosynthesis )(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-14 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | ||
| 0.61 | Putin, Xi Jinping, or Kim Jong Un out by 2028(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.61 | Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | humanoid_deployment | 10% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $76 on June 29, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.61 | Will there be a conflict in Iran after the U.S. midterm elections?”(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-29 | 234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-30 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 22% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-07-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-29 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.61 | Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.61 | Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 14% | ||
| 0.61 | Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-01 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 29% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 8th, 2026?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 231_031 OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 58% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | 30% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.61 | US Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.61 | Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-08 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-08 | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | robotaxi_deployment | 30% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-08 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the USD to IDR rate reach IDR 17,845 before 17th August 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will the USD to IDR rate reach IDR 17,845 before 17th August 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-15 | CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang | Semis | 72% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 33% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-16 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | ||
| 0.61 | Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Chainlink go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.61 | Will I get catch an illness before Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Ebola pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Ebola pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Will BTC-USD close above $100,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-29 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-25 | AI_035 In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, scientific, and creative tasks, humanity faces profound existential questions regarding its 'meaning of life' — potentially leaving humans without a primary teleological purpos... Nick Bostrom | Other | 37% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.61 | Starmer out before August?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 34% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund survive its initial challenges(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | CYB_026 The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely on proprietary algorithms and compute concentration has been heavily challenged — rapid uncontrollable diffusion of highly capable open-source models (De... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 77% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.61 | Will I comment on this market? [Creator won't bet](market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 16% | |
| 0.61 | Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-06 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Will May 2026 headline CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% |