Validations Queue
111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 27 of 219, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-07-06 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | ||
| 0.68 | Will OpenAI win the 2026 AtCoder WTF Heuristic competition?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-07-07 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 33% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-02 | AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 33% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-02 | AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk | AI | 13% | ||
| 0.68 | Humans have consciousness [Convince the Machine #3](market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-11 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 61% | ||
| 0.68 | 30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 28% | ||
| 0.68 | Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.68 | Will Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.68 | Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.68 | Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.68 | Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.68 | Will DeepSWE be saturated before 2027 (≥90%)?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 21% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX catch Ship before New Glenn RTF?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | |
| 0.68 | Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.68 | Will Cowork be added to the Claude iOS app on June 26, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 38% | |
| 0.68 | Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.67 | Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.67 | Will USTC be above $ 0.01 in August 2026(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.67 | Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the Oscars loosen rules on AI tool use by 2030?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 29% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Anthropic release a non-Fable model before Fable is rereleased?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-17 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the US be at full employment in December 2026?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. Peter Diamandis | Space | 79% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-30 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.67 | Bitcoin $67K in May?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.67 | Will I get an AI lab offer?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 241_039 In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead Eric Schmidt | AI | 46% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.67 | 30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% |