Validations Queue
111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 23 of 219, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-21 | INF_018 SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities. Elon Musk | Space | 20% | ||
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.69 | GPT-5.6 released by July 10?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | |
| 0.69 | manifold 2026-06-22 | SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.68 | Will 2+ bots beat master league in 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 229_014 Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 35% | |
| 0.68 | 30T market cap company before 2030?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 16% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 230_038 AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 9% | ||
| 0.68 | Are we going to create safety laws about AI?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz | AI | 46% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 22% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.68 | Will the July 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic release a non-Fable model before Fable is rereleased?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | |
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX catch Ship before New Glenn RTF?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | 75% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-30 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | ||
| 0.68 | Artemis III launches before 2029?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman | Space | 46% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 248_042 A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.68 | Bitcoin above 90k before 2027?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-26 | CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | 75% | ||
| 0.68 | Are we going to create safety laws about AI?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 35% | |
| 0.68 | Will the NASDAQ crash before Aug 30, 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-10 | ROB_002 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primary human bottleneck in digital creation, making the automation of the AI researcher by 2027 a mechanical certainty. Kevin Weil | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Americans or China get to the Moon By 2030(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-16 | SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.68 | Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in June 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 235_024 In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. Alex Wissner-Gross | Energy | 7% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Dario Amodei still be CEO of Anthropic by the end of August 2026?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.68 | Will AI beat humans at AtCoder World Tour Finals 2026?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 231_035 SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. Peter Diamandis | Space | 33% | ||
| 0.68 | Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 33% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.68 | Will China Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 230_051 Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex). Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 240_027 SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 74% |