Validations Queue

114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 70 of 212, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)

114,087

Reviewed

Filtered

105,599

page 70 / 212

Showing on page

500

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold

Source

All (114087)arxiv (53983)codex_research_pack (134)edgar_8k (3736)fda (5380)gdelt (1218)github_release (3352)manifold (11051)polymarket (35233)

Page size

50 100 200 500

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Threshold:Source:Action:

Source0 selected · 0 visible

Bulk action

Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.64	FDA ANDA217042: RIFAPENTINE (RIFAPENTINE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-06-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	An open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-28	248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	45%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 30?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Optimization Dynamics Imprint Semantic Specificity in Contrastive Embedding Norms	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Latent Actions from Factorized Transition Effects under Agent Ambiguity	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	ENC-ODE: Event-level Neurodegenerative Modeling in Continuous Time with Neural ODEs	arxiv 2026-06-29	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.64	Whose Side Is Your Agent On? Multi-Party Principal Loyalty in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	EMPATH: A Multilingual Auditor-Judge Benchmark for Safety Evaluation of Emotional-Support Chatbots	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Inoculation Adapters: Improved Selective Generalization of Capabilities with Fewer Surprising Backdoors	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Forewarned is Forearmed: When Non-Sequential Embedding Turns Into an Anomaly Detector	arxiv 2026-06-29	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.64	FacePlex: Full-Duplex Joint Speech-Facial Motion Generation for Conversational Avatars	arxiv 2026-06-29	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.64	EVAF: A Test-Retest Protocol for Selective Parametric Consolidation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Mandol: An Agglomerative Agent Memory System for Long-Term Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	SEVA: Self-Evolving Verification Agent with Process Reward for Fact Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Does Role Specialization Matter for Explanation Faithfulness in Mixture-of-Experts?	arxiv 2026-06-28	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.64	Faults in Our Formal Benchmarking: Dataset Defects and Evaluation Failures in Lean Theorem Proving	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	CRAFT: Counterfactual Credit Assignment from Free Sibling Rollouts for Self-Distilled Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	HSAP: A Hierachical Sequence-aware Parallelism for Hybrid-Context Generative Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Internal-State Probes Read the Situation, Not the Action: Three Negative Results for Pre-Action Misalignment Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-29	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	SGD Provably Prioritizes a Shortcut Spurious Feature in the XOR Model	arxiv 2026-06-29	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.64	Proofs of Ownership for Machine Learning Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Notes on generative modeling: flow matching, diffusion, optimal transport and Schr{ö}dinger bridge	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	A Diagnostic Framework and Multi-Evaluator Audit of Evaluator-Driven Preference Dynamics in Self-Adapting LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Prototype Latent World Model Replay for Class-Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	DAIN: Dynamic Agent-Based Interaction Network for Efficient and Collaborative Multimodal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Not-quite-human tastes: the stylized omnivorousness of LLM survey surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Timesteps of Mamba Align with Human Reading Times	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Revealing the Technology Development of Natural Language Processing: A Scientific Entity-Centric Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Fund2Persona: A Framework for Building and Refining Financial Advisor Personas from Fund Disclosure Data	arxiv 2026-06-29	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.64	Data-Driven Modeling and Control for Tethered Space Systems with Koopman-Informed Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-29	SPC_021 Relativity Space will revolutionize manufacturing of atmospheric and orbital vehicles by layering AI/ML software with intelligent robotics — drastically reducing part counts and manufacturing latency via autonomous rocket-construction pipelines. Eric Schmidt	Space	45%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Number of Claude Code GitHub commits on December 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-07-01	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.64	Evaluation of Population Initialization Methods for Genetic Programming-based Symbolic Regression	arxiv 2026-06-30	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.64	Explicit Fuzzy Logic in the Feed-Forward Layer: Self-Forgetting Quantifiers Discover Legible Grammatical-Licensing Detectors	arxiv 2026-06-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Policy Optimization Achieves Data-Dependent Regret Bounds in MDPs with Unknown Transitions	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Addressing Over-Refusal in LLMs with Competing Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Surprise as a Signal for Plasticity and Metacognition	arxiv 2026-06-30	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Mixture-of-Control: State-Aware Fine-Tuning for Transformer-based Models	arxiv 2026-06-30	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Mixture-of-Control: State-Aware Fine-Tuning for Transformer-based Models	arxiv 2026-06-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	CSO-LLM: Class Subspace Orthogonalization for Post-Training Backdoor Detection and Trigger Inversion in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Separation Capacity of Scattering Networks	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Will Gemini 3.5 Pro be released on the Gemini API by July 12?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-07-02	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.64	CausalMix: Data Mixture as Causal Inference for Language Model Training	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Understanding How Humans Inject Knowledge into Machine Learning Workflows through Visual Analytics	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Which Metric Reflects the Spelling Rate Accuracy in Event-Related Potential-Based Brain-Computer Interfaces?	arxiv 2026-07-01	248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. Dave Blundin	AI	37%
0.64	Domain Arithmetic: One-Shot VLA Adaptation under Environmental Shifts	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Active-GRPO: Adaptive Imitation and Self-Improving Reasoning for Molecular Optimization	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Homogenization of $\ell_2$-Adversarial Training in High-Dimensions: Exact Dynamics under Stochastic Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	TRIE: An Evaluation Framework for Stochastic PDE Surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 4?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.64	China x Japan military clash before 2027?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2025-11-17	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.64	What LLM Agents Say When No One Is Watching: Social Structure and Latent Objective Emergence in Multi-Agent Debates	arxiv 2026-07-02	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.64	Learning to Move Before Learning to Do: Task-Agnostic pretraining for VLAs	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Automated grading of Linux/bash examinations using large language models: a four-level cognitive taxonomy approach	arxiv 2026-07-02	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.64	Guided Action Flow: Q-Guided Inference for Flow-Matching Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-07-02	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Decomposer: Learning to Decompile Symbolic Music to Programs	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Lightweight Safe Reinforcement Learning for End-to-End UAV Navigation	arxiv 2026-07-02	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	MedStreamBench: A Time-Aware Benchmark for Streaming and Proactive Medical Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-07-02	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.64	ADVENT: LLM-Driven Automatic Predicate Invention for ILP	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Understanding the Robustness of Distributed Self-Supervised Learning Frameworks Against Non-IID Data	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	DecompRL: Solving Harder Problems by Learning Modular Code Generation	arxiv 2026-07-02	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Online Resource Allocation with Continuous Random Consumption: Regret under Degeneracy	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Autorelevance function and other feature relevance measures for univariate time series	arxiv 2026-07-02	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.64	Zeus: Towards Tuning-Free Foundation Model for Time Series Analysis	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Gaming Consensus: Coordinated Manipulation in Crowdsourced Fact-Checking	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.64	HULAT2 at MER-TRANS 2026: Governed Multi-Agent Simplification for Spanish Easy-to-Read Generation	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Imagining the Sense of Touch: Touch-Informed Manipulation via Imagined Tactile Representations	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	facebookresearch/nevergrad 1.0.2	github_release 2024-02-20	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	28%
0.64	facebookresearch/nevergrad 1.0.1	github_release 2023-11-19	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 6?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.64	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	29%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Bitcoin price on July 12?	manifold 2026-07-06	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.64	FDA NDA207103: IBRANCE (PALBOCICLIB) — PFIZER	fda 2026-06-24	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA NDA212436: IBRANCE (PALBOCICLIB) — PFIZER	fda 2026-06-24	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA075982: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — PLIVA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA210401: ACYCLOVIR (ACYCLOVIR) — YILING	fda 2026-06-24	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	CanniUplift: A Holistic Framework for Mitigating Seller and Incentive Cannibalization in E-commerce Uplift Modeling	arxiv 2026-07-06	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.64	TacReasoner: A Dynamic Tactile-Language Framework for Interactive Reasoning in Real-World Scenarios	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	AIFS-SUBS: Extending Data-Driven Forecasting to Sub-Seasonal Timescales	arxiv 2026-07-06	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.64	Hyperparameter Transfer in Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Heaviside Continuity of Rolling Coefficients for Eliminating Epistemic Entropy in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Failures and Successes to Learn a Core Conceptual Distinction from the Statistics of Language	arxiv 2026-07-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	A Deep Learning-based surrogate model for Severe Accidents in nuclear reactors using ASTEC	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	SOV-CAD: Stepwise Orthographic Views Guided CAD Modeling Sequence Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-07-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Advances in Neural Controlled Differential Equations	arxiv 2026-07-06	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.64	Untrusted Content Masking for Web Agents with Security Guarantees	arxiv 2026-07-06	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	Untrusted Content Masking for Web Agents with Security Guarantees	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Probing Geospatial SSL Representations with Environmental Signals	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Platonic Projection Structures: Operator-Induced Observability in Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Context-Constrained Transfer Learning for Tabular Foundation Models via Data Distillation	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	A Physics-Regulated Neural Framework for Learning 3D Grain Growth Dynamics	arxiv 2026-07-06	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.64	Score Distributions, Not Cells: Evaluating Single-Cell Perturbations Under Class Overlap	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	RL Forgets! Towards Continual Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Optimal Mixture-of-Experts Model Averaging for Conditional Generative Models	arxiv 2026-07-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	CARD: Cross-component Audio Representation Distillation for Encoder-Free Audio Captioning	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	Progressive Disclosure for LLM-Maintained Wiki Knowledge Bases: a Preregistered Ablation	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	DELTA-TTS: Adapting Autoregressive Model into Diffusion Language Model for Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	WinTA-GIL: Windowed Trajectory Alignment for GNSS-IMU-LiDAR Heading Refinement in Intermittent Signal Environments	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.64	A Perception-Manipulation Robotics System for Food Cutting	arxiv 2026-07-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.64	DepthWeave-KV: Token-Adaptive Cross-Layer Residual Factorization for Long-Context KV Cache Compression	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Industry Classification of GitHub Repositories Using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)	arxiv 2026-07-07	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.64	x-Prediction Is All You Need:Training-Free Accelerated Generation via Endpoint Decodability	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.64	x-Prediction Is All You Need:Training-Free Accelerated Generation via Endpoint Decodability	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	PluraMath: Extending Mathematical Reasoning Evaluation Beyond High-Resource Languages	arxiv 2026-07-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	From Textural Counterpoint to Feature Encoding: A Multi-Dimensional Machine Representation Study of Haydn's "The Lark" Integrating Electroacoustic Analysis	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	TurnOPD: Making On-Policy Distillation Turn-Aware for Efficient Long-Horizon Agent Training	arxiv 2026-07-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.64	FORGE: Towards Functional Tool-Use Generalization via Keypoint Trajectory Reasoning	arxiv 2026-07-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	When Should LLMs Search? Counterfactual Supervision for Search Routing	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Harnessing Generative Image Models for Training-Free Primitive Shape Abstraction	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Modeling Normal Is All You Need: Joint Latent Clustering for Anomaly Detection in Multimodal Cyber-Physical Systems	arxiv 2026-07-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Drift Happens: An Empirical Study of Neural Architecture Robustness to Temporal Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Auditing of Unlearning Algorithms	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	Strategic Bargaining in Multi-Buyer Markets: Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards for LLM Negotiations	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	From Closed-Loop Optimization to Open Decision Making: Coupled Digital Twins for Predictive and Autonomous Microscopy	arxiv 2026-07-07	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	LLM-Driven Neural Network Generation with Same-Family Architecture Guidance: Disentangling Transfer and Adaptation	arxiv 2026-07-06	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Battery Management of Autonomous Order Pickers	arxiv 2026-07-06	INF_061 Within approximately 10 years, battery chemistry and pack architecture advances (anchored by CATL Shenxing Pro) will yield electric vehicles traveling ~1,000 miles on a single charge with charging times of ~30-45 minutes. CATL	Auto/Transport	40%
0.64	A Coin Flip Per Token: Bernoulli Sparse Steering of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	InvWeaver: Deductive Feedback for Invariant Synthesis in Interacting-Loop Programs	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Parameter-Free Encoders Remain Viable for RDB Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Hierarchical Acoustic-Semantic Modeling: Modality Separation and Semantic Coherence for Full-Duplex SLMs	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	UniLM-Nav: A Unified Framework for Zero-Shot Last-Mile Navigation	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Optimal Transport Q-Learning for Flow Policy Steering and Acceleration	arxiv 2026-07-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Delay-Aware Active Triangulation with Uncertainty-Driven Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Counter-UAS	arxiv 2026-07-07	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	Co-STAR: Cognitive Stimulation Therapy by an Autonomous Robot for Dementia -- A One-Week In-Home Study	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-02-13	INF_011 Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	92%
0.64	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.64	Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.64	How much VRAM will NVIDIA 6090 (or closest equivalent Nvidia GPU) have?	manifold 2026-04-27	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.64	Will China Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-04-26	239_001 Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	38%
0.64	Will I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-04-23	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.64	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	nasas artemis ii moonship returns home to its launch site after historic voyage	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis	Space	56%
0.64	1964864	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.64		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.64	alphabet googl q1 2026 earnings 234030170.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.64	anthropic s mythos forces a rethink of vulnerability management	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.64	984371 robot dogs elon musk jeff bezos heads viral	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_057 Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminent Elon Musk	Robotics	33%
0.64	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-01-09	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.64	Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	First month s&p500 closes at 7,500.00 or higher?	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Humans have consciousness [Convince the Machine #3](market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-05-03	248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. Dave Blundin	AI	37%
0.64	Will HackerNews #1 story score go up in 24h?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-03	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.64	Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.64	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.64	Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.64	Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.64	Will Intel trade below $94 in May?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	42%
0.64	Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.64	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.64	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.64	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Jesus Christ Return before the 2028 election?	manifold 2026-05-05	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.29.0	github_release 2026-03-17	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.28.0	github_release 2026-03-13	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	33%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.26.0	github_release 2026-03-05	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.19.0	github_release 2026-02-10	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.11.0	github_release 2025-12-11	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	33%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.11.0	github_release 2025-12-11	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.64	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.0	github_release 2022-03-10	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc1	github_release 2026-01-08	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.64	pytorch/pytorch v2.6.0	github_release 2025-01-29	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.64	pytorch/pytorch v1.13.0	github_release 2022-10-28	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	pytorch/pytorch v1.12.0	github_release 2022-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-06	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	Safety and accuracy follow different scaling laws in clinical large language models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Spatiotemporal Convolutions on EEG signal -- A Representation Learning Perspective on Efficient and Explainable EEG Classification with Convolutional Neural Nets	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.64	DALPHIN: Benchmarking Digital Pathology AI Copilots Against Pathologists on an Open Multicentric Dataset	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	Parametrizing Convex Sets Using Sublinear Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.64	MEMSAD: Gradient-Coupled Anomaly Detection for Memory Poisoning in Retrieval-Augmented Agents	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	FinSTaR: Towards Financial Reasoning with Time Series Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.64	Automated Large-scale CVRP Solver Design via LLM-assisted Flexible MCTS	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Evaluating Prompting and Execution-Based Methods for Deterministic Computation in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.64	ARISE: A Repository-level Graph Representation and Toolset for Agentic Fault Localization and Program Repair	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.64	Programmatic Context Augmentation for LLM-based Symbolic Regression	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Mitigating Misalignment Contagion by Steering with Implicit Traits	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	OphMAE: Bridging Volumetric and Planar Imaging with a Foundation Model for Adaptive Ophthalmological Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Nora: Normalized Orthogonal Row Alignment for Scalable Matrix Optimizer	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	A Few-Step Generative Model on Cumulative Flow Maps	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.64	The Right Answer, the Wrong Direction: Why Transformers Fail at Counting and How to Fix It	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	OCRR: A Benchmark for Online Correction Recovery under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	OGPO: Sample Efficient Full-Finetuning of Generative Control Policies	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Adaptive Interpolation-Synthesis for Motion In-Betweening on Keyframe-Based Animation	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Recurrent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Chemotherapy Control under Partial Observability	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	Rose-SQL: Role-State Evolution Guided Structured Reasoning for Multi-Turn Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	ARGUS: Policy-Adaptive Ad Governance via Evolving Reinforcement with Adversarial Umpiring	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	SigLoMa: Learning Open-World Quadrupedal Loco-Manipulation from Ego-Centric Vision	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Bridging the Embodiment Gap: Disentangled Cross-Embodiment Video Editing	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	On Surprising Effects of Risk-Aware Domain Randomization for Contact-Rich Sampling-based Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Semantic Risk-Aware Heuristic Planning for Robotic Navigation in Dynamic Environments: An LLM-Inspired Approach	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	A Semantic Autonomy Framework for VLM-Integrated Indoor Mobile Robots: Hybrid Deterministic Reasoning and Cross-Robot Adaptive Memory	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Feedback Motion Planning for Stochastic Nonlinear Systems with Signal Temporal Logic Specifications	arxiv 2026-05-04	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.64	FDA ANDA071130: HALOPERIDOL (HALOPERIDOL) — AIPING PHARM INC	fda 2026-04-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will my prediction market idea win?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-07	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.64	Sparse Tokens Suffice: Jailbreaking Audio Language Models via Token-Aware Gradient Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	RLearner-LLM: Balancing Logical Grounding and Fluency in Large Language Models via Hybrid Direct Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Budgeted LoRA: Distillation as Structured Compute Allocation for Efficient Inference	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Are LLMs Ready for Conflict Monitoring? Empirical Evidence from West Africa	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Not All That Is Fluent Is Factual: Investigating Hallucinations of Large Language Models in Academic Writing	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.1	github_release 2024-03-15	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	facebookresearch/faiss v1.7.4	github_release 2023-04-20	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.30	github_release 2025-04-28	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Optimizer-Model Consistency: Full Finetuning with the Same Optimizer as Pretraining Forgets Less	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	TinyBayes: Closed-Form Bayesian Inference via Jacobi Prior for Real-Time Image Classification on Edge Devices	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	Attributions All the Way Down? The Metagame of Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	Safety Anchor: Defending Harmful Fine-tuning via Geometric Bottlenecks	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Which Are the Low-Resource Languages of the Semantic Web?	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	SOPE: Stabilizing Off-Policy Evaluation for Online RL with Prior Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Crafting Reversible SFT Behaviors in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	LiVeAction: a Lightweight, Versatile, and Asymmetric Neural Codec Design for Real-time Operation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	PairAlign: A Framework for Sequence Tokenization via Self-Alignment with Applications to Audio Tokenization	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Feature Dimensionality Outweighs Model Complexity in Breast Cancer Subtype Classification Using TCGA-BRCA Gene Expression Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	Sequential Design of Genetic Circuits Under Uncertainty With Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	Sequential Design of Genetic Circuits Under Uncertainty With Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Empirical Evidence for Simply Connected Decision Regions in Image Classifiers	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.64	Beyond the Independence Assumption: Finite-Sample Guarantees for Deep Q-Learning under $τ$-Mixing	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.64	UniPrefill: Universal Long-Context Prefill Acceleration via Block-wise Dynamic Sparsification	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	More Aligned, Less Diverse? Analyzing the Grammar and Lexicon of Two Generations of LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.64	Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Financial Document Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	BALAR : A Bayesian Agentic Loop for Active Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Beyond BLEU: A Semantic Evaluation Method for Code Translation	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	MaMi-HOI: Harmonizing Global Kinematics and Local Geometry for Human-Object Interaction Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Track A*: Fast Visibility-Aware Trajectory Planning for Active Target Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-06	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Driver-WM: A Driver-Centric Traffic-Conditioned Latent World Model for In-Cabin Dynamics Rollout	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Right Model, Right Time: Real-Time Cascaded-Fidelity MPC for Bipedal Walking	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.64	CRAFT: Counterfactual-to-Interactive Reinforcement Fine-Tuning for Driving Policies	arxiv 2026-05-06	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-08	246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	22%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2025-10-24	238_068 Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) Mark Pack Donovan	Macro/Economy	35%
0.64	Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-05-09	ROB_011 An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. Elon Musk	Space	9%
0.64	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Will I have another peak moment in the next 5 years?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-11	234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	59%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	FDA ANDA072735: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — HIKMA	fda 2026-05-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-23	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.64	KV-Fold: One-Step KV-Cache Recurrence for Long-Context Inference	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Aligning Flow Map Policies with Optimal Q-Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Discrete Flow Matching for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Agent-Based Post-Hoc Correction of Agricultural Yield Forecasts	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Neural-Schwarz Tiling for Geometry-Universal PDE Solving at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.64	BSO: Safety Alignment Is Density Ratio Matching	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Not How Many, But Which: Parameter Placement in Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-12	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Hölder Policy Optimisation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Rethink the Role of Neural Decoders in Quantum Error Correction	arxiv 2026-05-12	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.64	Split the Differences, Pool the Rest: Provably Efficient Multi-Objective Imitation	arxiv 2026-05-12	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	Persona-Conditioned Adversarial Prompting: Multi-Identity Red-Teaming for Adversarial Discovery and Mitigation	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	SoK: Unlearnability and Unlearning for Model Dememorization	arxiv 2026-05-12	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Hindsight Hint Distillation: Scaffolded Reasoning for SWE Agents from CoT-free Answers	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	FERMI: Exploiting Relations for Membership Inference Against Tabular Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Parallel Scan Recurrent Neural Quantum States for Scalable Variational Monte Carlo	arxiv 2026-05-13	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.64	Three-Stage Learning Unlocks Strong Performance in Simple Models for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-13	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.64	Achieving $ε^{-2}$ Sample Complexity for Single-Loop Actor-Critic under Minimal Assumptions	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Deep Learning as Neural Low-Degree Filtering: A Spectral Theory of Hierarchical Feature Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Mixed neural posterior estimation for simulators with discrete and continuous parameters	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Rescaled Asynchronous SGD: Optimal Distributed Optimization under Data and System Heterogeneity	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	LIFT: Last-Mile Fine-Tuning for Table Explicitation	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Differentiable Learning of Lifted Action Schemas for Classical Planning	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Teacher-Guided Policy Optimization for LLM Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10)(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.64	INTEL CORP (INTC) (CIK 0000050863)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.64	Text Knows What, Tables Know When: Clinical Timeline Reconstruction via Retrieval-Augmented Multimodal Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.64	Hand-in-the-Loop: Improving Dexterous VLA via Seamless Interventional Correction	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	From Data to Action: Accelerating Refinery Optimization with AI	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Exploitation of Hidden Context in Dynamic Movement Forecasting: A Neural Network Journey from Recurrent to Graph Neural Networks and General Purpose Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Understanding Imbalanced Forgetting in Rehearsal-Based Class-Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	DRL-STAF: A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for State-Aware Forecasting of Complex Multivariate Hidden Markov Processes	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Matrix-Space Reinforcement Learning for Reusing Local Transition Geometry	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	To See is Not to Learn: Protecting Multimodal Data from Unauthorized Fine-Tuning of Large Vision-Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Action-Conditioned Risk Gating for Safety-Critical Control under Partial Observability	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	PreFT: Prefill-only finetuning for efficient inference	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	FDA ANDA079204: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — TARO	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 19?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Altar of Champions 2026 Winner?	manifold 2026-05-16	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Daily Coinflip 🎉(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.64	Will there be a physical protest at YouTube headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-16	230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-24	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.64	Will I successfully refer someone for Ṁ1,000?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-19	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-19	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.64	Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-19	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.64	A No-Defense Defense Against Gradient-Based Adversarial Attacks on ML-NIDS: Is Less More?	arxiv 2026-05-18	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Pocket Foundation Models: Distilling TFMs into CPU-Ready Gradient-Boosted Trees	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	Data Presentation Over Architecture: Resampling Strategies for Credit Risk Prediction with Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.64	Stochastic Penalty-Barrier Methods for Constrained Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Perfect Parallelization in Mini-Batch SGD with Classical Momentum Acceleration	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Probing for Representation Manifolds in Superposition	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	What is Holding Back Latent Visual Reasoning?	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Hybrid Quantum-Classical Neural Architecture Search	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	QLIF-CAST: Quantum Leaky-Integrate-and-Fire for Time-Series Weather Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Geometric Dictionary Learning of Dynamical Systems with Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Unveiling Memorization-Generalization Coexistence: A Case Study on Arithmetic Tasks with Label Noise	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Generating Pretraining Tokens from Organic Data for Data-Bound Scaling	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	AMO: Adaptive Muon Orthogonalization	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.64	AURORA: Contextual Orthogonalization for Geometric Representation Learning in Healthcare Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	To what extent will Developmental Cognitive Interpretability be successful [Read Updated Description]	manifold 2026-05-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Will US average gas price reach … in June 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.64	How many individuals will qualify for tiebreakers at ARML 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	On Language Generation in the Limit with Bounded Memory	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	PhyGenHOI: Physically-Aware 4D Generation of Dynamic Human-Object Interactions	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Same Evidence, Different Answers: Canonical-Context On-Policy Distillation for Multi-Turn Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Same Evidence, Different Answers: Canonical-Context On-Policy Distillation for Multi-Turn Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	Double-Edged Sword or Sharp Tool? Designing and Evaluating Triadic LLM-Teacher Collaboration for K-12 Writing at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-28	241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.64	Projectional Decoding: Towards Semantic-Aware LLM Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.64	Make LLM Learn to Synthesize from Streaming Experiences through Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-28	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Moment-KV: Momentum-Based Decode-Time KV Cache Compression for Long Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.64	Uncertainty-Aware Transfer Learning for Cross-Building Energy Forecasting: Toward Robust and Scalable District-Level Energy Management	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Reliable Reasoning with Large Language Models via Preference-Based Maximum Satisfiability	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Think Fast, Talk Smart: Partitioning Deterministic and Neural Computation for Structured Health Text Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	VitalAgent: A Tool-Augmented Agent for Reactive and Proactive Physiological Monitoring over Wearable Health Data	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Digitally enriching a screening population for pancreatic cancer using routine blood-based measures and clinical histories	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	TriSearch: Learning to Optimize Triangulations via Bistellar Flips	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Open Problem: Separating Geometric and Algorithmic Compression via Cayley-Table Completion	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Eigen-Spike Emergence and Quadratic Equivalents for Conjugate Kernels on Nonlinearly Separable Data	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	On-Policy Replay for Continual Supervised Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	How Much Is a Dataset Worth? Scaling Laws, the Vendi Score, and Matrix Spectral Functions	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	AliMark: Enhancing Robustness of Sentence-Level Watermarking Against Text Paraphrasing	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	When Does Persona Prompting Actually Help? A Retrieval and Metric Analysis of Expert Role Injection in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.64	Attention as In-Context Empirical Bayes: A Two-Stage View via Particle Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	NeuroEdge: Real-Time Hand Gesture Recognition with High-Density EMG Using Deep Learning at the Edge	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	A Dual-Path Architecture for Scaling Compute and Capacity in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	MELD: Mel-Spectrogram-Based Speech Language Modeling with Discrete Latent Variables	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.64	Understanding Safety-Sensitive Expert Behavior in Mixture-of-Experts LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.64	Decoupled Thrust-Axis Attitude Control Using Quaternions for Chandrayaan-3 Lunar Landing Mission	arxiv 2026-05-28	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.64	MonoDuo: Using One Robot Arm to Learn Bimanual Policies	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	MonoDuo: Using One Robot Arm to Learn Bimanual Policies	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Will USTC be above $ 0.01 in August 2026(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-31	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.64	Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2025-12-22	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	FDA NDA204114: MEKINIST (TRAMETINIB DIMETHYL SULFOXIDE) — NOVARTIS	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA208433: LINAGLIPTIN (LINAGLIPTIN) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-02	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	SafeSteer: Localized On-Policy Distillation for Efficient Safety Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.64	Ghost Tool Calls: Issue-Time Privacy for Speculative Agent Tools	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.64	Food Noise & False Safety: A Systematic Evaluation of How LLMs Fail to Adapt to Eating Disorder Queries with Clinician Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-01	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.64	AutoForest: Automatically Generating Forest Plots from Biomedical Studies with End-to-End Evidence Extraction and Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	SeClaw: Spec-Driven Security Task Synthesis for Evaluating Autonomous Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	PlanarBench: Evaluating LLM Spatial Reasoning via Planar Graph Drawing	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.64	Why Do Time Series Models Need Long Context Windows?	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.64	STaR-KV: Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Re-weighting for KV Cache Compression in GUI Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	STaR-KV: Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Re-weighting for KV Cache Compression in GUI Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Off-the-Shelf LLMs as Process Scorers: Training-Free Alternative to PRMs for Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	MobEvolve: An Agentic Self-Evolving Heuristic System for Interpretable Human Mobility Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	ReSkill: Reconciling Skill Creation with Policy Optimization in Agentic RL	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Physics-Guided Recurrent State-Space Neural Networks for Multi-Step Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	The Ghost Couple: Correlated LLM Name Priors and Their Haunting of the Web and Academic Publishing	arxiv 2026-06-01	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.64	It does what it says on the tin: safe synthetic data from coarsened margins	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_022 From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.64	Ablating Archetypes: The Stability of Archetypal SAEs is an Artifact of Initialization and Metric Design	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	FlatVPR: Plug-and-play Geo-linear Residual Adapter for Geometric Rectification of Foundation Model Feature Manifolds	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Self-Regulating Annealing in Heavy-Tailed Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_026 The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely on proprietary algorithms and compute concentration has been heavily challenged — rapid uncontrollable diffusion of highly capable open-source models (De... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	77%
0.64	MPMWorlds: Material-Point-Method Simulations for Inferring and Extrapolating Physical Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Fast Generalization after Interpolation via Critically Damped Momentum Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Semantic Retrieval for Product Search in E-Commerce	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	On the Uncertainty Quantification Ability of Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	GuidaPA: Privacy-Preserving Chatbot for Public Administration via Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Hybrid Verified Decoding: Learning to Allocate Verification in Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Robust Asynchronous Planning via Auto-Formalization	arxiv 2026-05-31	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.64	Towards Lightweight Reliability: Using Soft Prompts for Hallucination Mitigation in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.6	github_release 2020-09-18	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.64	Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-03	246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	22%
0.64	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	16%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will May 2026 US average hourly earnings rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-02	AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	13%
0.64	TempoVLA: Learning Speed-Controllable Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	RREDCoT: Segment-Level Reward Redistribution for Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Self-Augmenting Retrieval for Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	DAST: A VLM-LLM Framework for Cross-Interface Anomaly Detection in O-RAN	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.64	Closing the Loop on Latent Reasoning via Test-Time Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	On Advantage Estimates for Max@K Policy Gradients	arxiv 2026-06-04	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.64	DiG-Plan: Mitigating Early Commitment for Tool-Graph Planning via Diffusion Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Value-and-Structure Alignment for Routing-Consistent Quantization of Mixture-of-Experts Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Tracing the Oracle: Improving Diffusion Timestep Scheduling for 3D CT Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Dead Directions: Geometric Singular Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.64	Automated Proving of Shannon-Type Entropy Inequalities via Fine-Tuned Language Models and Guided Tree Search	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Less is MoE: Trimming Experts in Domain-Specialist Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	Towards Unified and Data-Efficient Prognostics and Health Management with Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.64	Sharp First-Order Lower Bounds for Higher-Order Smooth Nonconvex Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	Evidence-Guided Neural Architecture Selection under Uncertainty for Subject-Specific Blood Glucose Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-03	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Analysis of the Neglect-Zero Effect in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	AdaPLD: Adaptive Retrieval and Reuse for Efficient Model-Free Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	An ERP Study on Recursive Locative Processing in Mandarin-Speaking Children with Autism	arxiv 2026-06-04	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	Stability vs. Manipulability: Evaluating Robustness Under Post-Decision Interaction in LLM Judges	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Trajectory Dynamics in Language Model Hidden States Predict Human Processing Costs Beyond Surprisal	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	GARL: Game-Theoretic Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Agent Strategic Prioritisation	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	GRAIL: Gradient-Reweighted Advantages for Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-03	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	MusaCoder: Native GPU Kernel Generation with Full-Stack Training on Moore Threads GPU	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Rethinking Continual Experience Internalization for Self-Evolving LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Ensuring Interaction Safety in Multitask Exoskeleton Control: A Simulation-Trained Variable Impedance Framework	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Meridian: Metric-Semantic Primitive Matching for Cross-View Geo-Localization Beyond Urban Environments	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.64	Meridian: Metric-Semantic Primitive Matching for Cross-View Geo-Localization Beyond Urban Environments	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	Gotta Grow Fast: Design and Benchmarking of a Tip Mount for High-Speed Vine Robots	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	WAM-Nav: Asymmetric Latent World-Action Modeling for Unified Visual Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	MineXplore: An Open-Source Reinforcement Learning Exploration Benchmark for GNSS-Denied Underground Environment	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	OSCAR: Omni-Embodiment Action-Conditioned World Model for Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	OLIVE: Online Low-Rank Incremental Learning for Efficient Adaptive Exoskeletons	arxiv 2026-06-03	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	FDA NDA220482: NDA220482 ((unspecified)) — HAISCO PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP CO LTD	fda 2026-05-29	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	FDA NDA201848: HEPZATO (MELPHALAN HYDROCHLORIDE) — DELCATH SYSTEMS INC	fda 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Star在月底会达到0.01美金吗？(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Do Coding Agents Deceive Us? Detecting and Preventing Cheating via Capped Evaluation with Randomized Tests	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	SV-Detect: AI-generated Text Detection with Steering Vectors	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Where Rectified Flows Leak: Characterising Membership Signals Along the Interpolation Path	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	TOPSIS-RAD: Ranking According to Desires	arxiv 2026-06-05	234_044 Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ Salim Ismail	AI	39%
0.64	TOPSIS-RAD: Ranking According to Desires	arxiv 2026-06-05	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Evidence-Based Intelligent Diagnostic and Therapeutic Visualization System with Large Language Models: Multi-Turn Interaction and Multimodal Treatment Plan Generation	arxiv 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	MotionEnhancer: Leveraging Video Diffusion for Motion-Enhanced Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Second-Order Path Kernel Interpolation Formulas in Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.64	Time series Foundation Models based on Physics-Informed Synthetic Histories for Cold-Start Photovoltaic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-05	242_001 Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production Elon Musk	AI	50%
0.64	Discovering Multiscale Deep Formulas in Complex Systems via Neural-Guided Lambda Calculus	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Self-evolving LLM agents with in-distribution Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-05	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.64	Residual-Controlled Multiplier Learning for Stochastic Constrained Decision-Making	arxiv 2026-06-05	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.64	RASFT: Rollout-Adaptive Supervised Fine-Tuning for Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	GlucoFM-Bench: Benchmarking Time-Series Foundation Models for Blood Glucose Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Product units in gated recurrent units improve nuclear-mass prediction	arxiv 2026-06-05	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.64	Beyond Rubrics: Exploration-Guided Evaluation Skills for Reward Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Tree-of-Experience: A Structured Experience-Management Solution for Self-Evolving Agents under Low-Repetition and Implicit-Reward Environments	arxiv 2026-06-05	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.64	CRAFT: A Unified Counterfactual Reasoning Framework for Tabular Question Answering and Fact Verification	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	The Dark Regulome: Disentangling Predictability from Regulation in Genomic Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.64	ActionMap: Robot Policy Learning via Voxel Action Heatmap	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will June 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-06-07	247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	50%
0.64	Preserving Plasticity in Continual Learning via Dynamical Isometry	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Observability for Delegated Execution in Agentic AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.64	Muon Learns More Robust and Transferable Features than Adam	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	ATN3D: Density-Aware LiDAR-Radar Early 3D Object Detection Under Extreme Sparsity	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Can Data Work be Reparative?	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%