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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.69	Exploration Structure in LLM Agents for Multi-File Change Localization	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Sparse probes and murky physics: a case study of interpretability challenges in a foundation model for continuum dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	The Periodic Table of LLM Reasoning: A Structured Survey of Reasoning Paradigms, Methods, and Failure Modes	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Select and Improve: Understanding the Mechanics of Post-Training for Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.69	Free-Placement Optimization of Ground Station Locations for Low-Earth Orbit Satellites	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.69	EvoArena: Tracking Memory Evolution for Robust LLM Agents in Dynamic Environments	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	$\texttt{WEAVER}$, Better, Faster, Longer: An Effective World Model for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Multi-Modal Multi-Agent Robotic Cognitive Alignment enabled by Non-Invasive Consumer Brain Computer Interfaces: A Proof of Concept Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.69	DARRMS -- An Efficient Algorithm for Dynamic Attention Radius in Resource-Constrained Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.69	When will a humanoid robot first be used to kill someone?	manifold 2026-06-13	247_044 Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments Mark Cuban	Robotics	28%
0.69	Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its current level by end of 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-06-14	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.69	Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-15	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.69	How many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2027?	manifold 2026-06-16	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.69	Graphical-Probabilistic Modeling of Generative Flows in LLM-Native Software Systems	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	LLM-as-Code Agentic Programming for Agent Harness	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	TreeGRNG: Binary Tree Gaussian Random Number Generator for Efficient Probabilistic AI Hardware	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.69	A Formal Resilience Framework for Cyber-Physical Embodied Systems under Device-Level Cyberattacks	arxiv 2026-06-15	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.69	An Augmented Reality Brain-Robot Interface for Generalist Robot Arm Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	A Deployment Case Study in Robotic Apparel Automation: Digital Twin Integration, Interoperability, and Workforce Enablement	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_042 A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. Salim Ismail	Robotics	39%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Memory as a Wasting Asset: Pricing Flash Endurance for Embodied Agents, and the Limits of Doing So	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.69	A T-API-Compliant ReAct Agentic Loop for Optical Networks: Generic vs. Domain-Specific Tool Abstractions	arxiv 2026-06-16	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	33%
0.69	SoftMoE: Soft Differentiable Routing for Mixture-of-Experts in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Closing the Feedback Loop: From Experience Extraction to Insight Governance in Verbal Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Model Validation of Agentic AI Systems: A POMDP-Based Framework for Belief-State, Forecast, and Policy Validation	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	Nothing from Something: Can a Language Model Discover 0?	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	EnvRL: Learn from Environment Dynamics in Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	Searching for Synergy in Shared Workspace Human-AI Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-16	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.69	ToolChain-CRC: Conformal Risk Control for Agentic AI Under Retrieval and Tool-Use Drift	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	The Wrong Kind of Right: Quantifying and Localizing Misfired Alignment in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Towards Scalable Customization and Deployment of Multi-Agent Systems for Enterprise Applications	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Autonomous Event-Driven Multi-Agent Orchestration for Enterprise AI at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_001 The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of... Alex Finn	AI	51%
0.69	Grounded Inference: Principles for Deterministically Encapsulated Generative Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Beyond Static Leaderboards: Predictive Validity for the Evaluation of LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.69	Quantum-classical physics-informed Kolmogorov-Arnold networks for PDEs	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Will Anthropic require training-consent for any frontier model by mid-2027?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-21	236_005 Anthropic predicts 50% of entry-level white collar jobs automated in 1-5 years Dario Amodei / Anthropic	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.69	Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.69	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.69	A Matter of Time: Towards a General Theory of Agency	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	MINCE: Shrinking LLM Evaluation Datasets via Few-Model Monte Carlo Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	The Geometry of Refusal: Linear Instability in Safety-Aligned LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	On the Limits of Prompt-Conditioned Language Models as General-Purpose Learners	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Superhuman AI for Generals.io Using Self-Play Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.69	On the Effect of Segmentation Width and Cluster Size on Speech Resynthesis and Continuation in Generative Spoken Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Cloak: Zero-Shot Cross-Embodiment Manipulation by Masking the End-Effector from the VLA	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	How many successful SpaceX launches in July 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-06-24	248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. Peter Diamandis	Space	79%
0.69	Large-Language-Model Discovery of Quantum LDPC Codes through Structured Concept Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	BluTrain: A C++/CUDA Framework for AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.69	On the Smallness of the Large Language Models Scaling Exponents	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.69	Red-Teaming the Agentic Red-Team	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_026 Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ... Alex Finn	Defense	77%
0.69	Exploring the relationship between human-centric AI and firm idiosyncratic risks	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.69	Rapid FinFET Modelling Using an Autoencoder	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.69	NatureBench: Can Coding Agents Match the Published SOTA of Nature-Family Papers?	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.69	Staying In Character: Perspective-Bounded Memory For Book-Based Role-Playing Agents	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	ASAP: Agent-System Co-Design for Wall-Clock-Centered Auto HPO Research for ML Experiments	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Beyond One-Size-Fits-All: Diagnosis-Driven Online Reinforcement Learning with Offline Priors	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.69	Closed-Loop Graph Algorithm Execution with Small Language Models: Step Accuracy and Rollout Reliability	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.69	RGB: RL Guided Whole-Body MPPI for Humanoid Control	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Efficient foundation decoders for fault-tolerant quantum computing	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Adaptive Utility driven Resource Orchestration for Resilient AI (AURORA-AI)	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Where Do CoT Training Gains Land in LLM based Agents?	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Socratic agents for autonomous scientific discovery in high-dimensional physical systems	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	CAT-Q: Cost-efficient and Accurate Ternary Quantization for LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-25	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.69	Closing the Loop to Discover Psychological Theories with an Automated Cognitive Scientist	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	Beyond Feedforward Networks: Reentry Neural Systems as the Fundamental Basis of Subjecthood and Intrinsic Safety of Next-Generation AGI	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Bridging the NISQ and Fault-Tolerant Regimes: Generative-ML-Assisted Quantum Selected CI for Molecular Simulations	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	STEMGym: Benchmarking Sequential Decision-Making under Dose Budgets in Autonomous Electron Microscopy	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Parametric Skills	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.69	Learning Transferable Dynamics Priors from Action to World Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Learning from Failure: Inference-Time Self-Improvement for Computer-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Arko-T: A Foundation Model for Text-to-Structured 3D Generation	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.69	Will Gemini 3.5 Pro be released on the Gemini API by July 12?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-07-02	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.69	Behind the Refusal: Determining Guardrail Activation via Behavioral Monitoring	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	ContextNest: Verifiable Context Governance for Autonomous AI Agent	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	The Agentic Garden of Forking Paths	arxiv 2026-07-01	AI_035 In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, scientific, and creative tasks, humanity faces profound existential questions regarding its 'meaning of life' — potentially leaving humans without a primary teleological purpos... Nick Bostrom	Other	37%
0.69	The Agentic Garden of Forking Paths	arxiv 2026-07-01	IND_027 Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum... Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.69	The Grammar Does the Work: Functional vs. Lexical Dependency Length Minimization Across Universal Dependencies	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Overthink-Triggered Slowdown Attacks on LVLM-Based Robotic Systems	arxiv 2026-07-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.69	Lyapunov-Guided Training for Hardware-Safe Neural Networks Under Fixed-Point Arithmetic	arxiv 2026-07-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.69	Compressing the Validation Bottleneck: An Agentic Self-Driving Lab for Scientific Discovery	arxiv 2026-07-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	RoboDojo: A Unified Sim-and-Real Benchmark for Comprehensive Evaluation of Generalist Robot Manipulation Policies	arxiv 2026-07-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Biological Motifs for Agentic Control	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Memory-Orchestrated Semantic System (MOSS): An Auditable Agentic Memory Architecture	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.69	openai revenue miss ripples p 132038121.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_048 OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)	AI/Corporate	80%
0.69	meta earnings layoffs ai efficiency infrastructure push 2026 4	gdelt 2026-04-30	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.69	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.95.0	github_release 2026-04-14	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%