Predictions

174 of 1,778 predictions match — page 1 of 4. Click any row to view its detail.

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IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
AI_003Macro/EconomyARR-compressionAI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decad…Dario Amodei4/5B88.0%in_progress2024-01-01 – 2026-12-31
AI_009AItrillion-dollar-cluster-ladderSilicon Valley boardroom compute-cluster conversations have escalated rapidly…Leopold Aschenbrenner5/5A70.0%in_progress2024-01-01 – 2029-08-31
CMQ_014AI/Computephysical-computePhysical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, dri…Leopold Aschenbrenner5/5A70.0%in_progress2024-01-01 – 2027-12-31
IND_006GeopoliticsVC-reallocation-regulatory-captureTrajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic l…Ben Horowitz4/5B72.0%in_progress2024-01-01 – 2028-10-31
IND_011Macro/EconomyiPhone-moment-outcome-based-pricing2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapid…Jason Calacanis5/5C72.0%in_progress2024-01-01 – 2026-12-31
INF_032Macro/Economyresidential-electricity-costResidential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Wash…Seattle Met / Washington State regulators4/5B78.0%in_progress2024-01-01 – 2029-12-31
AUT_004Markets/Stocksalgorithmic-equity-headcount-rewardEquity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI…Andrew Yang4/5B68.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2028-09-30
AUT_011Geopoliticscompute-licensing-dystopiasSevere impending collision between capabilities of open autonomous systems an…David Holz5/5B60.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2028-10-31
AUT_028AItrillion-dollar-cluster-progressionCorporate boardroom plans will rapidly shift from $10 billion to $100 billion…Leopold Aschenbrenner5/5A72.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2030-11-30
CMQ_026SemisNVIDIA-roadmapNVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ult…Jensen Huang5/5A88.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31
CMQ_040Semis/Memorymemory-supercycleAI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant glo…Samsung executives5/5A90.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2027-12-31
IND_003Biotech/LongevityNICU-4-hour-genomic-sequencingLatency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborn…Alex Wissner-Gross5/5C75.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2026-11-30
IND_012Biotech/LongevityBioNeMo-Evo2-BRCA1-compressionNVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of b…Jensen Huang5/5A78.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2030-06-30
IND_014Educationevery-textbook-obsoleteGenerative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obs…Joe Liemandt5/5C60.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2027-09-30
IND_026Labor/Jobsscaffolding-eaten-orchestratorsNon-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, no…Kevin Weil5/5B68.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2027-12-31
INF_011Macro/Economyhyperscaler-capexMega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in…Morgan Stanley5/5A88.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2026-12-31
INF_016Energypower-as-binding-constraintPower generation is the 'innermost loop' and absolute limiting factor on AI e…Elon Musk5/5A85.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2030-10-31
SEM_004InvestingNVIDIACapital should rotate FROM software developers TO data-center compute, power …Leopold Aschenbrenner5/5A85.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2030-12-31
SEM_005AI/InfrastructureAI-scalingStargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-ce…Sam Altman5/5A82.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31
SEM_013Policy/SemishardwareEvery nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereig…Jensen Huang5/5A85.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2030-12-31
SEM_046AI/StartupseconomyAI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — bar…Joe Liemandt3/5B75.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31
SEM_047AI/HardwareAI-scalingAt 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy…Jimmy Ba5/5B90.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31
229_001RoboticshumanoidsFigure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to bui…Brett Adcock5/5C92.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
229_002RoboticshumanoidsFigure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via i…Brett Adcock5/5C92.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
233_007EducationAI-scalingIn 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the…Joe Liemandt5/5C65.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
243_002Auto/TransportautonomousUber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026Dara Khosrowshahi5/5C92.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
AI_013Markets/StocksSaaSpocalypse'SaaSpocalypse' — traditional Software-as-a-Service incumbents (Salesforce, A…Morgan Stanley4/5B72.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30
AI_014AIagent-native-infrastructureA new 'Agent-Native Infrastructure' category emerges — legacy digital infrast…Marc Andreessen4/5B65.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31
AI_017SemisNemoClaw-Vera-CPU-rackNVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized pro…Jensen Huang4/5A78.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31
AI_037GeopoliticsEU-AI-Act-complianceEU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropi…Daniella Amodei4/5B75.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31
AUT_001AIHIM-5-agent-autonomous-orgThe HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-ag…Alex Finn5/5C65.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
AUT_002AIunified-mathematical-substrateModels excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unif…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5C72.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30
AUT_005DefenseSilicon-Valley-defense-convergenceFundamental convergence between autonomous AI, enterprise software, and globa…Ben Horowitz4/5B78.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30
AUT_008Auto/TransportUber-AV-partnerships-20K-vehiclesUber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group…Dara Khosrowshahi5/5A68.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2056-11-30
AUT_010AIalignment-catastrophic-failureAs models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executor…Daniella Amodei4/5B72.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31
AUT_014AIopen-source-autonomous-proliferationMost profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary …Emad Mostaque4/5C62.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2029-10-31
AUT_015Defensecheap-satellites-loitering-munitionsComplete obsolescence of traditional military procurement — national security…Eric Schmidt5/5A80.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30
AUT_016AIRubin-Alpamayo-Mercedes-2026NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost…Jensen Huang5/5A75.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
AUT_021AImultimodal-data-entropy-bottleneckDefining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms sp…Marc Andreessen5/5B75.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
AUT_022Auto/TransportAV-inflection-2026-33-launches2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecastin…Morgan Stanley4/5B58.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30
CMQ_017Energypower-gridUS electricity production must grow by 'tens of percent' by end of decade to …Leopold Aschenbrenner5/5A75.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
CMQ_021Macro/EconomyAI-as-macro-variableAI has transitioned from a thematic technology disruption to a primary macroe…Morgan Stanley4/5A80.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_023AI/Computetokens-economyTokens are the new raw material — data centers are no longer cost centers but…Jensen Huang5/5A85.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_024AI/Computetokens-per-watt'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the mod…Jensen Huang5/5A80.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_025AI/ComputeDC-replacementThe entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and repla…Jensen Huang5/5A78.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2032-12-31
CMQ_029Semis/MemoryDRAM-mandateDRAM manufacturers must expand production aggressively — 'NVIDIA will buy all…Jensen Huang5/5A90.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31
CMQ_030AI/ComputeCPU-resurgenceIn the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it d…Jensen Huang5/5A78.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_032Macro/Economycost-of-intelligenceExponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bott…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5A75.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31
CMQ_034Semis/MemoryHBM-shortageHBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage exten…Morgan Stanley5/5A85.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31
CMQ_041Semis/Memoryconsumer-DRAM-shortageReallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unad…Morgan Stanley5/5A82.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31