Predictions
1,828 of 1,828 predictions match — page 33 of 37. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 232_020 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_023 | AI | AI-timing | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastr… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_025 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates. | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_026 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek emp… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_027 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Entry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but … | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_028 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' … | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_030 | Crypto | crypto | AI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-base… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_031 | Crypto | economy | Crypto and AI will combine to form the AI economy; most people are underestim… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_032 | Crypto | AGI | Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed. | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_033 | AI | crypto | Cryptographically strong authentication is the only security technique that w… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_035 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_036 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in … | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_040 | AI | superintelligence | Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of… | Nick Bostrom | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_041 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at gradua… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_042 | Macro/Economy | economy | GDP expands massively as intelligence becomes infrastructure; Jevons paradox … | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for build… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_054 | AI | AI-timing | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_055 | AI | AI-timing | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement un… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_056 | AI | AI-timing | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattene… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_058 | AI | AI-timing | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 233_003 | Education | AI-timing | Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math,… | MacKenzie Price | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 233_006 | AI | AI-timing | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 an… | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 233_013 | Labor/Jobs | humanoids | Not a good time to be an Uber driver as robotaxis expand. | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 233_017 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 233_018 | Education | AI-timing | Alpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity. | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 233_021 | AI | AGI | AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making … | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 235_012 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Large companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change. | Salim Ismail | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 235_013 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to ev… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 235_039 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 236_007 | Macro/Economy | economy | US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 236_034 | Macro/Economy | economy | Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation fr… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 236_039 | Energy | AI-timing | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 237_007 | AI | AI-timing | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI lik… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 237_008 | Consumer | AI-scaling | App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate softw… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 241_023 | Energy | AI-timing | 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_016 | Macro/Economy | abundance | Huge backlash against AI abundance without institutional redesign | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_021 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Net job creation likely, exotic new jobs like one-person AI conglomerates | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_022 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_043 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_051 | Energy | AI-scaling | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_056 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Net job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going away | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_059 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | African nations will be impacted least by AI transition | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| COD_SPC_005 | Space | Dragonfly-Titan | NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 70.0% | pending | 2028-07-01 – 2028-07-31 |
| 231_030 | Energy | AI-timing | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmid… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| 234_013 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-05-31 |
| 235_001 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 235_023 | Energy | AI-timing | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 235_026 | Media/Ads | AI-scaling | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 235_032 | Robotics | Optimus | Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2032-08-31 |
| 236_021 | Robotics | Optimus | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2034-11-30 |