Predictions
148 of 1,778 predictions match — page 1 of 3. Click any row to view its detail.
Filters
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPC_008 | Space | SpaceX-milestone-2.5x-rule | SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered … | New Market Pitch | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2005-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| SPC_031 | Space | launch-cost-reusability-kg | SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Or… | SpaceX | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2008-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| FUT_024 | AI | IMO-gold-2025-underestimate-calibration | XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal… | Superforecaster Community | 5/5 | C | 100.0% | hit | 2022-01-01 – 2025-09-30 |
| AUT_017 | AI | agentic-RL-sequential-policy | Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | C | 90.0% | hit | 2023-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| ROB_006 | AI | English-new-programming-language | 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes … | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2023-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| CMQ_053 | Robotics | Figure-funding | Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW … | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | A | 99.0% | hit | 2024-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| IND_013 | AI | DreamerV3-latent-imagination | General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidi… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | C | 88.0% | hit | 2024-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| SPC_025 | AI | 300-to-1-safety-ratio | Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities r… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | hit | 2024-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AUT_003 | AI | vibe-coding-delegation | 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomou… | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | B | 94.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| CMQ_031 | AI/Compute | post-Moore | AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 70.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| CMQ_062 | Quantum | quantum-interference | Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasin… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| CYB_015 | Labor/Jobs | bot-on-bot-hiring | The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot ag… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| ROB_016 | Labor/Jobs | Block-intelligence-native-reset | Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller… | Jack Dorsey | 4/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| SEM_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime i… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-08-31 |
| SEM_011 | Capital Markets | NVIDIA | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a … | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 99.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_012 | AI/Manufacturing | AI-scaling | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount … | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 90.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_015 | Policy/Semis | NVIDIA | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US governme… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 75.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_027 | Capital Markets | NVIDIA | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 reve… | Joseph Moore | 5/5 | A | 99.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_039 | Semis/ASICs | crypto | Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s… | Jack Dorsey | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_042 | AI/Agents | AI-scaling | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstr… | Kevin Weil | 4/5 | A | 90.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_048 | AI/Corporate | economy | OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for … | OpenAI (Sam Altman-led) | 5/5 | A | 95.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SPC_004 | Markets/Stocks | Rocket-Lab-small-launch-dominance | Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium laun… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 90.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| SPC_005 | Markets/Stocks | AST-SpaceMobile-direct-to-cell | AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will scale from $70.9M full-year 2025 revenue (guided … | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-11-30 |
| SEM_014 | Manufacturing | NVIDIA | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semi… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 98.0% | hit | 2025-10-01 – 2025-10-31 |
| 238_009 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2025-12-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| 229_013 | AI | AI-timing | The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 229_047 | AI | AI-timing | Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with … | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 232_014 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 232_021 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administrat… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 233_009 | Education | AI-timing | A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in … | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| 233_016 | Education | AI-timing | Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with… | MacKenzie Price | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| 233_020 | Education | AI-timing | Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billio… | Joe Liemandt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| 235_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 237_028 | Media/Ads | orbital-AI | Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, a… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_010 | AI | AGI | AI takeoff/inflection is happening now | Emad Mostaque | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 238_072 | AI | AI-scaling | Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 240_001 | Markets/Stocks | $100T | NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_027 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_006 | AI | AI-timing | Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_052 | Energy | AI-timing | Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_047 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| AI_005 | AI | jagged-intelligence | Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at inte… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AI_010 | AI | Slopacolypse-code-atrophy | The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the… | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | A | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| AI_016 | AI | AI-experience-curve-vs-Moore | The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AI_019 | Markets/Stocks | copper-basemetals-alpha | Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets o… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| AI_023 | AI | synthetic-CEO-clone | Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive te… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AI_033 | Education | 2.3x-learning-rate | AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics i… | MacKenzie Price | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| AUT_019 | AI | GPU-rental-50-percent-spike | Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — … | Kevin Weil | 4/5 | C | 80.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| CMQ_027 | AI/Compute | inference-shift | The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-d… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_038 | Semis/Memory | Micron-HBM4 | Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s b… | Micron | 5/5 | A | 85.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |