← Cockpit
248_028predictionBiotech/LongevityAI-timing

Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
37.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | This is going to happen as n equals 1 over and over again until it's n= 10 billion.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
This is going to happen as n equals 1 over and over again until it's n= 10 billion.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-07-04
κ (discount)
0.861
Brier
0.0406
excellent
Hits / Misses
8 / 1
of 13 resolved
Hit rate
61.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-06-23
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 37.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 8 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱
  1. 2025-03-15hitRentosertib (ISM001-055) becomes first AI-designed drug to receive INN
    How: Insilico Medicine's AI-designed candidate receives official International Nonproprietary Name (INN) from WHO
    Source: Mayo Clinic Proceedings — Individualized Medicine in the Era of AIconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — Foundational milestone. AI-designed drug acceptance by drug-naming authority.
  2. 2025-09-30hitBenevolentAI partners with major pharma on patient-population-specific drugs
    How: BenevolentAI announces partnership/program developing drugs tailored to specific patient genetic markers
    Source: Frontiers in Medicine — The expanding role of AI in personalised medicineconf 85%
    Notes: HIT — BenevolentAI confirmed partnerships with major pharma for population-specific drug design.
  3. 2025-06-30hitInsilico Chemistry42 candidates in clinical trials
    How: Insilico Medicine reports multiple AI-designed candidates (e.g. fibrosis program) in active clinical trials
    Source: Frontiers in Medicine; Intuz industry analysisconf 90%
    Notes: HIT — Validates 'n=1 AI design → trials' progression.
  4. 2025-06-01 → 2027-06-30overdueFirst true n=1 personalized drug therapy approved
    How: FDA, EMA, or PMDA approves a fully personalized drug therapy designed specifically for a single patient using AI
    Source: FDA approvals; npj Precision Oncology coverageconf 55%
    Notes: Pivotal validation point for n=1 → n=10B trajectory. Required new regulatory thinking already published.
  5. 2025-12-01 → 2027-12-31pendingn>=10 documented n=1 AI-designed therapies in patients
    How: Peer-reviewed literature documents ≥10 case studies of AI-designed individual-patient therapies administered with measurable outcomes
    Source: Lancet, NEJM, npj Precision Oncology case reportsconf 60%
    Notes: Cascade — Wissner-Gross's 'stories will repeat' — each is an n=1 case study. Trajectory toward n=10B requires industrialization.
  6. 2026-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAI-designed drug discovery time falls to <12 months consistently
    How: Industry data shows median AI-designed drug discovery-to-IND timeline drops below 12 months for multiple programs
    Source: Nature Drug Discovery; IQVIA reportsconf 50%
    Notes: Cascade — Rentosertib: <30 months from discovery to human trials. Industrialization requires further compression toward sub-year.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 38%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-23T22:14:56Z37.7%-4.6pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.377 blend=0.377 LLR=-0.192 κ=0.86 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.209412268768758,
  "kappa": 0.8611,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.3115102846451738,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4227461383892443,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.473605,
      "label": "First true n=1 personalized drug therapy approved",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41698-024-00517-w",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.1920303025255672,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-15",
      "measurement_criterion": "FDA, EMA, or PMDA approves a fully personalized drug therapy designed specifically for a single patient using AI"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.8534114118618694,
  "outside_weight": 0.14658858813813058,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3767089791407553,
  "posterior_logit": -0.503540587170741,
  "predictor_brier": 0.04061,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3767089791407553,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3767089791407553,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.1920303025255672,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 13
}
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z42.3%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 43.3% → 42.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.3%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 44.8% → 43.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.8%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 46.9% → 44.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.9%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.078
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.500+0.056
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.500+0.033
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5000.050-0.028
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5000.050+0.021

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
8.4%0.6200.050+0.190
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
14.1%0.6500.050+0.144
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
18.0%0.7000.050+0.125
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
24.4%0.7500.050+0.080
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
16.9%0.5500.050+0.077

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-06-30[Biology 2026-06] ktop $100-per-genome machine in second [248_028] Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. [248_032] First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will beoverdue

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "n=10 billion treated",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "This is going to happen as n equals 1 over and over again until it's n= 10 billion.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "This is going to happen as n equals 1 over and over again until it's n= 10 billion.",
  "conv_cues": "is going to happen",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Rentosertib (ISM001-055) becomes first AI-designed drug to receive INN",
      "notes": "HIT — Foundational milestone. AI-designed drug acceptance by drug-naming authority.",
      "source": "Mayo Clinic Proceedings — Individualized Medicine in the Era of AI",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/S0025-6196(25)00417-3/fulltext",
      "expected_date": "2025-03-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-03-15",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Insilico Medicine's AI-designed candidate receives official International Nonproprietary Name (INN) from WHO"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BenevolentAI partners with major pharma on patient-population-specific drugs",
      "notes": "HIT — BenevolentAI confirmed partnerships with major pharma for population-specific drug design.",
      "source": "Frontiers in Medicine — The expanding role of AI in personalised medicine",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/medicine/articles/10.3389/fmed.2026.1795879/full",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-02",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-30",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2025-12-31",
        "from": "2025-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "BenevolentAI announces partnership/program developing drugs tailored to specific patient genetic markers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Insilico Chemistry42 candidates in clinical trials",
      "notes": "HIT — Validates 'n=1 AI design → trials' progression.",
      "source": "Frontiers in Medicine; Intuz industry analysis",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.intuz.com/blog/generative-ai-in-precision-medicine",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-02",
      "observed_date": "2025-06-30",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2025-12-31",
        "from": "2025-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Insilico Medicine reports multiple AI-designed candidates (e.g. fibrosis program) in active clinical trials"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:2
... (truncated)