Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered

Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | the Chinese strategy is a bit different. It's less central computing and much more edge computing... We're much more AGI ASI centered | Claude 5 / GPT-6 / Gemini 3 capability benchmarks

Key catalyst: Claude 5 / GPT-6 / Gemini 3 capability benchmarks

Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam

the Chinese strategy is a bit different. It's less central computing and much more edge computing... We're much more AGI ASI centered

Beneficiaries (14)

Adverse (7)

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  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "the patterns are diverging",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "the Chinese strategy is a bit different. It's less central computing and much more edge computing... We're much more AGI ASI centered",
  "direction": "MIXED",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DeepSeek V4 tuned specifically for Huawei Ascend chips",
      "notes": "HIT — DeepSeek V4 explicitly tuned for Ascend chips, validating Schmidt's edge/distributed thesis vs centralized US AGI bet.",
      "source": "https://www.cfr.org/articles/deepseek-v4-signals-a-new-phase-in-the-u-s-china-ai-rivalry",
      "status": "hit",
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      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cfr.org/articles/deepseek-v4-signals-a-new-phase-in-the-u-s-china-ai-rivalry",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-24",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-24",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00",
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    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00"
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.",
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    },
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US models",
      "notes": "HIT — V4 underperforms frontier US models, confirms US AGI vs China edge strategy split.",
      "source": "https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260427VL203/deepseek-ai-efficiency-usa-china.html",
      "status": "hit",
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      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260427VL203/deepseek-ai-efficiency-usa-china.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-27",
      "hit_emitted_at": "2026-06-08T22:11:23.030711+00:00",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Independent benchmarks confirm DeepSeek V4 below GPT-5.5 / Claude Opus 4.7 / Gemini 3 on standard reasoning evals"
    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)",
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      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
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    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.",
      "status": "overdue",
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      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "248_024",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-20",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-28T22:09:44.050155+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": 
... (truncated)