Audit Log

Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops

Total entries
1,095
Filtered
1,095
page 1 / 22
Distinct actions
33
Distinct kinds
16

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WhenActorActionTargetBefore → After
2026-07-05 02:00:00lbp_run:ab7ecb4c0fd0lbp.completedlbp_run:ab7ecb4c0fd0
view
{
  "edge_count": 11986,
  "node_count": 1830
}
{
  "residual": 0.006628,
  "converged": true,
  "top_moves": [
    {
      "delta": 0.1507,
      "node_id": "235_047"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.13638,
      "node_id": "230_010"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.13537,
      "node_id": "235_004"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.1352,
      "node_id": "238_023"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.13374,
      "node_id": "248_019"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.12404,
      "node_id": "229_001"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.11714,
      "node_id": "240_026"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.11679,
      "node_id": "235_007"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.11517,
      "node_id": "235_046"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.11391,
      "node_id": "230_040"
    }
  ],
  "iterations": 5,
  "applied_beliefs": false,
  "n_significant_moves": 365
}
2026-07-04 22:13:10system:refresh_recommendationsrecommendations.refresh.run
view
{
  "recs_examined": 1044,
  "positions_examined": 34
}
{
  "alerts_queued": 0
}
2026-07-04 22:13:10system:detect_prediction_conflictsprediction_conflicts.run
view
{
  "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}
{
  "detected": 0
}
2026-07-04 22:13:09system:refresh_reference_class_base_ratesreference_class_base_rate_refresh
view
{
  "summary": "R3 refresh start",
  "examined": 19
}
{
  "rows": [],
  "below": [
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "single_stock_target_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "political_crisis_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 5,
      "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "id": "fab_construction_3y"
    },
    {
      "n": 3,
      "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 0,
      "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
    }
  ],
  "updated": 0,
  "examined": 19,
  "below_threshold": 17,
  "min_n_threshold": 30
}
2026-07-04 22:13:09system:decay_predictor_kappakappa_decay_run
view
{
  "summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
  "examined": 104
}
{
  "rows": [],
  "alpha": 0.003,
  "updated": 0,
  "examined": 104,
  "kappa_prior": 0.5,
  "max_daily_decay": 0.01,
  "decay_horizon_days": 365
}
2026-07-04 22:13:07metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_022
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.30719
}
{
  "delta": -0.09130769236201919,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.216 blend=0.216 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.21588230763798083,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-04 22:13:07metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:233_021
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.38704
}
{
  "delta": -0.08791163022409959,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.299 blend=0.299 LLR=-0.392 κ=0.57 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.2991283697759004,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-04 22:13:07metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:237_023
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.40741
}
{
  "delta": -0.13283475383763255,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.275 blend=0.275 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.27457524616236745,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-04 22:13:07metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:238_052
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.24428
}
{
  "delta": -0.025415823265330012,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.268 blend=0.219 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.21886417673466999,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-04 22:13:07metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:239_010
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.36715
}
{
  "delta": -0.10231597782037088,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.265 blend=0.265 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.2648340221796291,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-04 22:13:07metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:241_057
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.44759
}
{
  "delta": -0.11288089365662218,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.335 blend=0.335 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3347091063433778,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-04 22:13:07metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:242_001
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.43892
}
{
  "delta": 0.06341039071567034,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.327 blend=0.502 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y",
  "current_prob": 0.5023303907156703,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:28system:refresh_recommendationsrecommendations.refresh.run
view
{
  "recs_examined": 1030,
  "positions_examined": 34
}
{
  "alerts_queued": 0
}
2026-07-03 22:12:28system:detect_prediction_conflictsprediction_conflicts.run
view
{
  "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}
{
  "detected": 0
}
2026-07-03 22:12:28system:refresh_reference_class_base_ratesreference_class_base_rate_refresh
view
{
  "summary": "R3 refresh start",
  "examined": 19
}
{
  "rows": [],
  "below": [
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "single_stock_target_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "political_crisis_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 5,
      "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "id": "fab_construction_3y"
    },
    {
      "n": 3,
      "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 0,
      "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
    }
  ],
  "updated": 0,
  "examined": 19,
  "below_threshold": 17,
  "min_n_threshold": 30
}
2026-07-03 22:12:27system:decay_predictor_kappakappa_decay_run
view
{
  "summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
  "examined": 104
}
{
  "rows": [],
  "alpha": 0.003,
  "updated": 0,
  "examined": 104,
  "kappa_prior": 0.5,
  "max_daily_decay": 0.01,
  "decay_horizon_days": 365
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:229_026
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.38499
}
{
  "delta": -0.21766497564817286,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.266 blend=0.167 LLR=-0.549 κ=0.79 w_in=0.50 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.16732502435182714,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:229_038
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.22748
}
{
  "delta": -0.11404828088658797,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.143 blend=0.113 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.35 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.11343171911341202,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_004
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.38134
}
{
  "delta": -0.1279744869486839,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.253 blend=0.253 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.2533655130513161,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_010
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.46515
}
{
  "delta": -0.37183424718075175,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.330 blend=0.093 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 regulatory_freeze_window",
  "current_prob": 0.09331575281924823,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_012
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}
{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_013
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.52076
}
{
  "delta": -0.13998564255596607,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.381 blend=0.381 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.38077435744403393,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_019
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.46998
}
{
  "delta": -0.23443752435699633,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.334 blend=0.236 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.23554247564300368,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_037
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}
{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_040
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.50388
}
{
  "delta": -0.2342448064652773,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.355 blend=0.270 LLR=-0.611 κ=0.88 w_in=0.49 agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.2696351935347227,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_041
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.46158
}
{
  "delta": -0.21274913191585698,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.327 blend=0.249 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.42 agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.248830868084143,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_045
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.3861
}
{
  "delta": -0.12890970807694097,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.257 blend=0.257 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.25719029192305903,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_047
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}
{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_049
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}
{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:230_050
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}
{
  "delta": -0.13404786419012765,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:231_014
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}
{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:231_020
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}
{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:231_022
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}
{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:231_023
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}
{
  "delta": -0.13404786419012765,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:231_028
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}
{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:231_034
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.53592
}
{
  "delta": -0.011362012450166215,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.395 blend=0.525 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y",
  "current_prob": 0.5245579875498337,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:231_041
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.53646
}
{
  "delta": -0.14071819901289456,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.396 blend=0.396 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3957418009871055,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:231_052
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}
{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:231_053
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}
{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:232_004
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}
{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:232_007
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}
{
  "delta": -0.13404786419012765,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:232_015
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}
{
  "delta": -0.13404786419012765,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:232_035
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.38424
}
{
  "delta": -0.12854362760336158,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.256 blend=0.256 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.25569637239663845,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:232_043
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.53646
}
{
  "delta": -0.14071819901289456,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.396 blend=0.396 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3957418009871055,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:232_052
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.46375
}
{
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2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:232_060
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2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:233_005
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2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:233_007
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2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:233_014
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2026-07-03 22:12:25metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:234_002
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