Audit Log
Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops
Total entries
1,095
Filtered
1,095
page 1 / 22
Distinct actions
33
Distinct kinds
16
Filters
Action
Allauto_corroborate.rundoc_node_link.bulk_confirmdoc_node_link.confirmedges.isolated_high_conv_linkedges.phase2a_strength_gradingedges.scenario_correlate_backfilledges.weight_tune_v1intake.appliedkappa_decay_runlbp.completednode.bulk_resolution_fixnode.bulk_updatenode.metadata_milestone_missnode.milestone_missnodes.metadata.display_datenodes.metadata.milestonesnodes.metadata.milestones.phase2nodes.metadata.resolved_atprediction_conflicts.runprediction.recalibration_candidate.stagepredictions.december_dispersalpredictions.scenario_assignmentpredictions.tier3_reviewpredictors.brier_recomputerecommendations.bulk_importrecommendations.refresh.runreference_class_base_rate_refreshreference_class.overrideresearch_event_pack.applyresolution_history.backfillscenario.bulk_createsource_reliability.seedtrajectories.create_correlate_edges
Target kind
Actor (top 50)
Allapply_llm_milestonesapply_low_confidence_decisionsassign_predictions_to_scenariosbackfill_resolution_historybackfill_resolved_atbuild_scenario_pathscodexcompute_brier_scorescompute_display_datesderive_milestonesdisperse_december_bunchingfix_partial_classificationintake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac…intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b…intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14…intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87…intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7…lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431elbp_run:18dd8b52f967lbp_run:1a683ac9e205lbp_run:1c6a06976c86lbp_run:505c3f8c6962lbp_run:592311ef6bcalbp_run:806b02f82f58lbp_run:807dd6f649b1lbp_run:ab7ecb4c0fd0lbp_run:ba893ab6499flbp_run:cb236f3f5ed6lbp_run:cd8605f31f33lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42lbp_run:e607fa961f0blbp_run:ffd25072aee9link_trajectories_to_dimensionsmanual_overridemetadata_milestone_sweepmilestone_miss_sweepphase_2A.2_graderphase_2A.3_isolated_linkerphase_2A_backfillphase2_part3_smoke_testphase3_p4_smoke_testphase3_p6_smoke_testseed_source_reliabilitystage_recalibration_candidatessystem:auto_corroboratesystem:decay_predictor_kappasystem:detect_prediction_conflictssystem:import_recommendationssystem:refresh_recommendationssystem:refresh_reference_class_base_r…
| When | Actor | Action | Target | Before → After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 02:00:00 | lbp_run:ab7ecb4c0fd0 | lbp.completed | lbp_run:ab7ecb4c0fd0 | view{
"edge_count": 11986,
"node_count": 1830
}{
"residual": 0.006628,
"converged": true,
"top_moves": [
{
"delta": 0.1507,
"node_id": "235_047"
},
{
"delta": 0.13638,
"node_id": "230_010"
},
{
"delta": 0.13537,
"node_id": "235_004"
},
{
"delta": 0.1352,
"node_id": "238_023"
},
{
"delta": 0.13374,
"node_id": "248_019"
},
{
"delta": 0.12404,
"node_id": "229_001"
},
{
"delta": 0.11714,
"node_id": "240_026"
},
{
"delta": 0.11679,
"node_id": "235_007"
},
{
"delta": 0.11517,
"node_id": "235_046"
},
{
"delta": 0.11391,
"node_id": "230_040"
}
],
"iterations": 5,
"applied_beliefs": false,
"n_significant_moves": 365
} |
| 2026-07-04 22:13:10 | system:refresh_recommendations | recommendations.refresh.run | — | view{
"recs_examined": 1044,
"positions_examined": 34
}{
"alerts_queued": 0
} |
| 2026-07-04 22:13:10 | system:detect_prediction_conflicts | prediction_conflicts.run | — | view{
"summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}{
"detected": 0
} |
| 2026-07-04 22:13:09 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-07-04 22:13:09 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 0,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-07-04 22:13:07 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_022 | view{
"current_prob": 0.30719
}{
"delta": -0.09130769236201919,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.216 blend=0.216 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.21588230763798083,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-04 22:13:07 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:233_021 | view{
"current_prob": 0.38704
}{
"delta": -0.08791163022409959,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.299 blend=0.299 LLR=-0.392 κ=0.57 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.2991283697759004,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-04 22:13:07 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:237_023 | view{
"current_prob": 0.40741
}{
"delta": -0.13283475383763255,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.275 blend=0.275 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.27457524616236745,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-04 22:13:07 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:238_052 | view{
"current_prob": 0.24428
}{
"delta": -0.025415823265330012,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.268 blend=0.219 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y",
"current_prob": 0.21886417673466999,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-04 22:13:07 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:239_010 | view{
"current_prob": 0.36715
}{
"delta": -0.10231597782037088,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.265 blend=0.265 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.2648340221796291,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-04 22:13:07 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:241_057 | view{
"current_prob": 0.44759
}{
"delta": -0.11288089365662218,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.335 blend=0.335 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3347091063433778,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-04 22:13:07 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_001 | view{
"current_prob": 0.43892
}{
"delta": 0.06341039071567034,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.327 blend=0.502 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y",
"current_prob": 0.5023303907156703,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:28 | system:refresh_recommendations | recommendations.refresh.run | — | view{
"recs_examined": 1030,
"positions_examined": 34
}{
"alerts_queued": 0
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:28 | system:detect_prediction_conflicts | prediction_conflicts.run | — | view{
"summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}{
"detected": 0
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:28 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:27 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 0,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:229_026 | view{
"current_prob": 0.38499
}{
"delta": -0.21766497564817286,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.266 blend=0.167 LLR=-0.549 κ=0.79 w_in=0.50 humanoid_commercial_volume",
"current_prob": 0.16732502435182714,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:229_038 | view{
"current_prob": 0.22748
}{
"delta": -0.11404828088658797,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.143 blend=0.113 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.35 humanoid_commercial_volume",
"current_prob": 0.11343171911341202,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_004 | view{
"current_prob": 0.38134
}{
"delta": -0.1279744869486839,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.253 blend=0.253 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.2533655130513161,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_010 | view{
"current_prob": 0.46515
}{
"delta": -0.37183424718075175,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.330 blend=0.093 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 regulatory_freeze_window",
"current_prob": 0.09331575281924823,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_012 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_013 | view{
"current_prob": 0.52076
}{
"delta": -0.13998564255596607,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.381 blend=0.381 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.38077435744403393,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_019 | view{
"current_prob": 0.46998
}{
"delta": -0.23443752435699633,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.334 blend=0.236 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y",
"current_prob": 0.23554247564300368,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_037 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_040 | view{
"current_prob": 0.50388
}{
"delta": -0.2342448064652773,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.355 blend=0.270 LLR=-0.611 κ=0.88 w_in=0.49 agi_breakthrough_5y",
"current_prob": 0.2696351935347227,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_041 | view{
"current_prob": 0.46158
}{
"delta": -0.21274913191585698,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.327 blend=0.249 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.42 agi_breakthrough_5y",
"current_prob": 0.248830868084143,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_045 | view{
"current_prob": 0.3861
}{
"delta": -0.12890970807694097,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.257 blend=0.257 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.25719029192305903,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_047 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_049 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_050 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45421
}{
"delta": -0.13404786419012765,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:231_014 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:231_020 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:231_022 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:231_023 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45421
}{
"delta": -0.13404786419012765,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:231_028 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:231_034 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53592
}{
"delta": -0.011362012450166215,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.395 blend=0.525 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y",
"current_prob": 0.5245579875498337,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:231_041 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53646
}{
"delta": -0.14071819901289456,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.396 blend=0.396 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3957418009871055,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:231_052 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:231_053 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:232_004 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:232_007 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45421
}{
"delta": -0.13404786419012765,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:232_015 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45421
}{
"delta": -0.13404786419012765,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:232_035 | view{
"current_prob": 0.38424
}{
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| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:232_043 | view{
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| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:232_052 | view{
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| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:232_060 | view{
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| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:233_005 | view{
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| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:233_007 | view{
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| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:233_014 | view{
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| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:234_002 | view{
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