Bayesian Cockpit
Static priors from Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL, evolved daily via the Phase 4 Bayesian + reference-class blend + LBP stack. — Filtered view (1177 of 1778 predictions)
Filters
URL params scope the prediction-level queries below
Domain
Status
Predictions
1.2K
Thesis killers
15
Edges
12.2K
avg 6.6 per node
Tickers
645
38.0K links
Predictors
104
Milestones
303
from Sheet 17
Validations
279
non-pending
Reference classes
19
Embedded
1.5K/1.2K
768-dim bge-base vectors
Biggest moves (last 7 days)
Top 10 absolute |Δ| from latest prob_history per node. 156 nodes moved. 158 metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2 milestone miss
| Source | Node | Title | Predictor | Δ | Now | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 235_047 | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing | Dave Blundin | -40.7pp | 9.7% | 2026-07-03 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 230_010 | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations b | Dave Blundin | -37.2pp | 9.3% | 2026-07-03 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 235_004 | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant u | Dave Blundin | -35.2pp | 11.1% | 2026-07-03 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 238_023 | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (alre | Dave Blundin | -28.2pp | 20.7% | 2026-07-03 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 240_026 | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) | Dave Blundin | -27.7pp | 14.2% | 2026-07-03 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 235_007 | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks ou | Dave Blundin | -26.2pp | 19.1% | 2026-07-03 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 232_060 | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-r | Alex Wissner-Gross | -24.6pp | 19.6% | 2026-07-03 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 230_019 | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but | Dave Blundin | -23.4pp | 23.6% | 2026-07-03 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 230_040 | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issue | Peter Diamandis | -23.4pp | 27.0% | 2026-07-03 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 229_026 | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capab | Brett Adcock | -21.8pp | 16.7% | 2026-07-03 |
Validation status
Across 1,778 predictions
| Status | Count | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| pending | 1.2K | 100.0% |
Domains
Top 10 by prediction count
| Domain | Count | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| AI | 319 | 27.1% |
| Labor/Jobs | 105 | 8.9% |
| Macro/Economy | 91 | 7.7% |
| Biotech/Longevity | 85 | 7.2% |
| Auto/Transport | 80 | 6.8% |
| Robotics | 80 | 6.8% |
| short_horizon_breakout | 72 | 6.1% |
| Space | 67 | 5.7% |
| Markets/Stocks | 66 | 5.6% |
| Energy | 40 | 3.4% |
Top predictors
By predictions imported (full scorecard at /predictors)
| Predictor | Archetype | Total | In window | Avg conv | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wissner-Gross | Generalist | 231 | 169 | 3.5 | Pending |
| Dave Blundin | AGI-Accelerationist | 165 | 135 | 3.7 | Pending |
| Peter Diamandis | AGI-Accelerationist | 160 | 128 | 3.7 | Pending |
| Dara Khosrowshahi | AGI-Accelerationist | 89 | 38 | 3.8 | Pending |
| Elon Musk | AGI-Accelerationist | 69 | 42 | 3.9 | Pending |
| Eric Schmidt | AGI-Accelerationist | 68 | 63 | 3.9 | Pending |
| Brett Adcock | Specialist (humanoids) | 51 | 29 | 3.9 | Pending |
| Salim Ismail | Macro-Strategist | 49 | 38 | 3.6 | Pending |
| Ben Lamm | AGI-Accelerationist | 47 | 16 | 3.7 | Pending |
| Morgan Stanley | Generalist | 42 | 36 | 4.4 | Pending |
Top beneficiary tickers
pure_play + multi_vector roles
| Ticker | Company | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com | 1.0K |
| GOOGL | Alphabet (Google) | 1.0K |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 943 |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 891 |
| META | Meta Platforms | 882 |
| ORCL | Oracle | 830 |
| CRWV | CoreWeave | 758 |
| APLD | Applied Digital | 693 |
| SFTBY | SoftBank Group | 688 |
| GTLB | GitLab | 555 |
Top adverse tickers
Direct displaced
| Ticker | Company | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| ACN | — | 740 |
| IBM | IBM | 738 |
| CHGG | Chegg | 728 |
| WNS | — | 672 |
| INFY | — | 445 |
| CTSH | — | 444 |
| GEN | — | 284 |
| LRN | Stride | 284 |
| MAN | — | 113 |
| ALL | Allstate | 107 |
Thesis killers
15 scenarios that invalidate prediction classes — ranked by user-assigned probability
| ID | Scenario | Probability | Time window | Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 2026-2029 | 396 |
| TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 2026-2028 | 374 |
| TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 2026-2027 | 139 |
| TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 2026-2028 | 89 |
| TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 2026-2029 | 736 |
| TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | 18.0% | 2027-2030 | 116 |
| TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 2026-2027 | 795 |
| TK13 | Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | 15.0% | 2026-2030 | 31 |
| TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | 12.0% | 2026-2028 | 108 |
| TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 2026-2030 | 387 |
| TK10 | $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | 12.0% | 2027-2031 | 99 |
| TK11 | Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | 10.0% | 2026-2028 | 129 |
| TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 2026-2028 | 765 |
| TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 2026-2030 | 218 |
| TK12 | Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | 8.0% | 2026-2028 | 45 |