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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.68	Effective Dimension Governs Generalization in Quantum Kernel Vision Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	The Correctness Illusion in LLM-Generated GPU Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.68	The Hidden Environmental Cost of Poor Coding Practices in TensorFlow and Keras Applications: A Study on Resource Leaks and Carbon Emissions	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Generative Engine Optimization at Scale: Measuring Brand Visibility Across AI Search Engines	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_030 By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive to Fortune 500 firms — granting small businesses access to tools rivaling those of large enterprises. Dario Amodei	AI	82%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Starmer out before July?"(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.68	Litmus: Zero-Label, Code-Driven Metric Specification for Evaluating AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.68	Decomposing Financial Market Dynamics via Mechanism Analysis in an Evolutionary Multi-Agent Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.68	Cognitive Digital Twins: Ethical Risks and Governance for AI Systems That Model the Mind	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.68	Leakage-Aware Benchmarking of LLM Forecasting: Real-Time Nowcasts as the Decision-Time Input for Macro Factor Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-21	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.68	Federated Learning for Global Carbon Emission Forecasting: A Hybrid Time-Series Approach with Statistical and Neural Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	36%
0.68	MAS-PromptBench: When Does Prompt Optimization Improve Multi-Agent LLM Systems?	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	Efficient Network Inference via Hardware-Aware Architecture Search, Model Pruning & Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.68	Position: Correct Answer, Wrong Mechanism -- When AI Scientists Defend General Claims Their Own Data Contradicts	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.68	Tmax: A simple recipe for terminal agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	HoloAgent-0: A Unified Embodied Agent Framework with 3D Spatial Memory	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Can Scale Save Us From Plasticity Loss in Large Language Models?	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	SAFARI: Scaling Long Horizon Agentic Fault Attribution via Active Investigation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Learning to Trigger: Reinforcement Learning at the Large Hadron Collider	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.68	Legible and Intuitive Multi-modal Robot State and Intent Communication Validated in Online and Real-world Studies	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	SlipSense: Multimodal Sensing for Online Slip Detection in Legged Robots	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	RoBoSR: Structured Scene Representations for Embodied Robotic Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	The Unfireable Safety Kernel: Execution-Time AI Alignment for AI Agents and Other Escapable AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.68	Long-Term Simulation Exposes Cognitive-Developmental Risks in AI Companions	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Reliability-Asymmetric Spacecraft Autonomy: Co-Designing a Capable Learned GNC Stack with a Verified, Adaptation-Aware Runtime Shield	arxiv 2026-06-24	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.68	Compositional Behavioral Semantics for State Abstraction in Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Memory Retrieval in Visuomotor Policies for Long-Horizon Robot Control	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	What year will Starship launch at least as many times as Falcon 9?	manifold 2026-06-26	248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis	Space	58%
0.68	Einstein World Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	A Deterministic Control Plane for LLM Coding Agents	arxiv 2026-06-25	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	33%
0.68	Socratic agents for autonomous scientific discovery in high-dimensional physical systems	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. Sam Altman	AI	12%
0.68	Learning Motion Feasibility from Point Clouds in Cluttered Environments	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	IDEA: Insensitive to Dynamics Mismatch via Effect Alignment for Sim-to-Real Transfer in Multi-Agent Control	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Closing the Loop to Discover Psychological Theories with an Automated Cognitive Scientist	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.68	Axon: A Synthesizing Superoptimizer for Tensor Programs	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	RoboTales: ROBOTic Anthropomorphic LEarning Systems	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Collective cooperation without individual fidelity in LLM agents	arxiv 2026-06-29	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.68	Domain Adaptation with Adaptive Imagination for Visual Reinforcement Learning under Limited Target Data	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	FacePlex: Full-Duplex Joint Speech-Facial Motion Generation for Conversational Avatars	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	SWE-INTERACT: Reimagining SWE Benchmarks as User-Driven Long-Horizon Coding Sessions	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Behavior Prompting Policy: Demonstrations as Prompts for Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	ConCent: Contact-Centric Real-to-Sim-to-Real Learning from One Demonstration	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	When Stopping Fails: Rethinking Minimal Risk Conditions through Human-Interactive Autonomous Driving for Safe Transportation Systems	arxiv 2026-06-27	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.68	ISM:Self-Improving Strategy Memory for Continual Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-30	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Explaining Machine Learning and Memorization with Statistical Mechanics	arxiv 2026-06-30	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.68	Knowledge Distillation from Large Reasoning Models to Compact Student Models: A Case Study on the John O Bryan Mathematics Competition	arxiv 2026-06-30	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.68	Certified Speculative Execution for Untrusted AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Behavior Cloning is Not All You Need: The Optimality of On-Policy Distillation for Noisy Expert Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.68	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.68	Quantum vs. Classical Machine Learning: A Unified Empirical Comparison	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Soft Mixture-of-Recursions: Going Deeper with Recursive Vision Transformers	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Domain Arithmetic: One-Shot VLA Adaptation under Environmental Shifts	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 29%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Hardware-Enforced Semantic Coordination for Safety-Critical Real-Time Autonomous Systems	arxiv 2026-07-02	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.68	AgenticSTS: A Bounded-Memory Testbed for Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	What Types of Human-AI Teams Exist?	arxiv 2026-07-02	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.68	Autonomous discovery of traffic laws with AI traffic scientists	arxiv 2026-07-02	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.68	Hawk: Harnessing Hardware-Aware Knowledge for High-Performance NPU Kernel Generation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Hawk: Harnessing Hardware-Aware Knowledge for High-Performance NPU Kernel Generation	arxiv 2026-07-02	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.68	Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 29-July 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 7?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will AI beat humans at AtCoder World Tour Finals 2026?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-07-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.68	Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-07-06	231_035 SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. Peter Diamandis	Space	33%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 7?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-07-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-07-06	AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman	AI	33%
0.68	GaP: A Graph-as-Policy Multi-Agent Self-Learning Harness For Variational Automation Tasks	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	EvoAgentBench: Benchmarking Agent Self-Evolution via Ability Transfer	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	AgentGym2: Benchmarking Large Language Model Agents in De-Idealized Real-World Environments	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Simple-to-Complex Structured Demonstrations for Vision-Language-Action Learning	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Simple-to-Complex Structured Demonstrations for Vision-Language-Action Learning	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Mask2Real-WM: Segmentation Masks as a Sim-to-Real Bridge for Controllable Dexterous World Models	arxiv 2026-07-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Agentic-V2X: Small Language Model Agents for Deadline-Aware V2X Scheduling in 5G/6G Networks	arxiv 2026-07-05	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.68	Language models guide symbolic equation discovery by controlling search	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Deform360: A Massive Multi-view Visuotactile Dataset for Deformable World Models	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	PRISM: Personalized Robotic Dataset Generation via Image-based Scene and Motion Synthesis	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Agent-driven Long-tail Simulation for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-07-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on July 8?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-07-08	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.68	Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models	manifold 2026-07-08	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.68	A toy framework for single and multi-agent human-AI curiosity ecosystems	arxiv 2026-07-07	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	A toy framework for single and multi-agent human-AI curiosity ecosystems	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	What Do AI Agents Actually Change? An Empirical Taxonomy of Mutation Patterns in Performance-Improving Pull Requests	arxiv 2026-07-06	238_034 Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.68	aiAuthZ: Off-Host, Identity-Bound Authorization for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-07-06	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.68	Privilege and confidentiality in generative AI workflows	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.68	Energy-Efficient GPU DVFS for Fine-Tuning of SLMs on Resource-constrained Embedded Devices	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.68	Sakana AI IPO by 2029(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-07-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Single-Rollout Asynchronous Optimization for Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-07-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Validate the Dream Before You Trust Its Verdict: Admissibility for World-Model Simulators	arxiv 2026-07-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Predicting LLM Safety Before Release by Simulating Deployment	arxiv 2026-07-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.68	FDA ANDA215776: NAPROXEN (NAPROXEN) — HETERO LABS LTD III	fda 2026-06-30	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.68	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%