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114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 59 of 222, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 22% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-02 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | ||
| 0.64 | Star在月底会达到0.01美金吗？(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | Will June 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | Putin, Xi Jinping, or Kim Jong Un out by 2028(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Arlan get 1 million users by July 1st, 2026?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-25 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.64 | SpaceX pivots away from xAI(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 246_008 Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 62% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-27 | SPC_026 Humanity becoming a truly multiplanetary species is strictly an era BEYOND the singularity (post-2045) — Kurzweil asserts only after humanity has 'exhausted the ability of here on Earth to create more intelligence' will the focus shift definitively to ... Ray Kurzweil | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-30 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Will UK AISI be gutted in 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-07-04 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.64 | Will the December 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-07-07 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.64 | Airstrike on a UK datacenter before 2035?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-07-08 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I get a girlfriend in the year 2026(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.63 | Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.63 | Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 53% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 35% | ||
| 0.63 | Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.63 | Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.63 | Will I use Hermes Agent for more than a week?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 33% | |
| 0.63 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | |
| 0.63 | Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.63 | Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.63 | Will the USD to IDR rate reach IDR 17,845 before 17th August 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.63 | Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 237_008 App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. Alex Finn | Consumer | 31% | |
| 0.63 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 19% | |
| 0.63 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will ETH-USD close above $3,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.63 | Any new Veo model released during Google I/O(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.63 | 2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 239_024 Everyone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest person Elon Musk | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.63 | Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack | Space | 33% | |
| 0.63 | Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | 18% | |
| 0.63 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% |