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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | Spain leading at halftime?(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Spread: Argentina (-3.5)(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Over $1M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.61 | Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.61 | Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Colombia leading at halftime?(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 42% | |
| 0.61 | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Norway?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | China x Japan military clash before 2027?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-11-17 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.61 | China x Japan military clash before 2027?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-11-17 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.61 | England leading at halftime?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.61 | Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-22 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-22 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Map Handicap: YAW (-1.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.61 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2025-12-10 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-11-25 | 229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.61 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.61 | Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.61 | Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.61 | Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2025-10-10 | 235_003 First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.61 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.61 | Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.61 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.61 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.61 | Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Spread: Thunder (-10.5)(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-01-07 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.61 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | GTA VI released before June 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-05-02 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | Spread: Knicks (-6.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.61 | Will Solana reach $170 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will David Brekalo win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Thunder downunder win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will Gaimin Gladiators win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.61 | Will Gaimin Gladiators win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.61 | Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.61 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | 229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.61 | Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.61 | Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.61 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.61 | Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.61 | Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-06-04 | CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 52% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 58%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.61 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 79%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | 236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin | AI | 36% | |
| 0.61 | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.61 | Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will United States win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-11-11 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.61 | Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.61 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.61 | Spread: Japan (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Spread: Japan (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.61 | Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk | Robotics | 18% | |
| 0.61 | Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 42% | |
| 0.61 | Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% |