Validations Queue
111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 24 of 219, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
111,300
Reviewed
13
Filtered
10,911
page 24 / 219
Showing on page
50
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.68 | Will a humanoid robot walk on the mars before a human does?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | ROB_011 An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. Elon Musk | Space | 9% | |
| 0.68 | Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.68 | Are we going to create safety laws about AI?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_051 AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things Eric Schmidt | AI | 38% | |
| 0.68 | Will May 2026 U.S. capacity utilization be at least 77.0%?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 46% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 40% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.68 | Glosso IPO By 2027?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | |
| 0.68 | Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 232_054 SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. Ben Horowitz | AI | 42% | |
| 0.68 | Will I get a girlfriend in the year 2026(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.68 | Bitcoin above 90k before 2027?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.68 | 30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | |
| 0.68 | 30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.68 | Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_073 AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. Elon Musk | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-12 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.68 | Will the next OpenAI model be closer to Fable-class than to Opus-class?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.68 | SpaceX closes above $250 at end of month?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-28 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.68 | Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | Macro/Economy | 54% | |
| 0.68 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 | robotaxi_deployment | 45% | |
| 0.68 | Will there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 29% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-16 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | ||
| 0.68 | US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.68 | Will 2+ bots beat master league in 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.68 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 229_029 Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 33% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic have KYC for customers before June 22?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.68 | Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | 75% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-17 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% |