Validations Queue
108,318 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 16 of 72, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.74 | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.74 | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.74 | polymarket 2026-01-23 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.74 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 37% | |
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-18 | INF_020 In-orbit data-center market will reach approximately $1.77 billion by 2029 and grow to approximately $39.1 billion by 2035 — a 67.4% CAGR driven by Starship economics, radiation-hardened TPU hardware, and mega-constellation filings. BIS Research | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | AI_011 The vast majority of human programmers will be entirely replaced by AI within a single year — future programmer role transitions from debugger to 'conductor' directing autonomous agents to implement complex visions. Eric Schmidt | Labor/Jobs | 20% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 241_033 Few frontier AI companies will be in China Eric Schmidt | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.74 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2025-11-24 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.74 | Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-11 | CMQ_014 Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially larger data-center construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI/Compute | 50% | ||
| 0.74 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.74 | Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-12 | SEM_043 SpaceX is actively exploring deployment of data centers in space — seeking regulatory permission immediately as rivals investigate orbital compute. Gwynne Shotwell | Space/Compute | 54% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.74 | Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 31% | |
| 0.74 | Will a new FrontierMath Open Problem be solved by AI before August 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | |
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.74 | Will Elon Musk ever reach a net worth of 1.5 trillion?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 22% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.74 | Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.74 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 93%) | polymarket 2026-04-01 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.74 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 93%) | polymarket 2026-04-01 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang | Semis | 72% | ||
| 0.74 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-05-28 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_051 If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-03 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.74 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2025-11-24 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn | Consumer | 44% | ||
| 0.74 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.74 | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.74 | Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.74 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn | Consumer | 44% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-21 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.74 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% |