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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.68	HumanoidArena: Benchmarking Egocentric Hierarchical Whole-body Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_025 Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.68	AdsMind: A Physics-Grounded Multi-Agent System for Self-Correcting Discovery of Adsorption Configurations on Heterogeneous Catalyst Surfaces	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Decoupling Search from Reasoning: A Vendor-Agnostic Grounding Architecture for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Improving Human-Robot Teamwork in Urban Search and Rescue Through Episodic Memory of Prior Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	Beyond Reward Engineering: A Data Recipe for Long-Context Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Generating Natural and Expressive Robot Gestures through Iterative Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback using LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Structure Over Nonlinearity: Explicit Interaction Architectures for Dynamical Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.68	Adaptive Speech-to-Spike Encoding for Spiking Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Towards Scalable Customization and Deployment of Multi-Agent Systems for Enterprise Applications	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.68	LLM Parameters for Math Across Languages: Shared or Separate?	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.68	When will Starship flight 15 happen?	manifold 2026-06-19	246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk	Space	36%
0.68	Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-18	246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk	Space	36%
0.68	Efficient and Sound Probabilistic Verification for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	UltraQuant: 4-bit KV Caching for Context-Heavy Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.68	LLM agent safety, multi-turn red-teaming, jailbreak benchmarks, adversarial robustness, safety-critical systems	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	The Algorithmic-Human Manager: AI, Apps, and Workers in the Indian Gig Economy	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_017 Self-driving vehicles and autonomous systems will begin completely replacing human gig workers within 10-15 years — a major societal challenge for millions of drivers reliant on ride-share platforms, necessitating new paradigms for on-demand, AI-assist... Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.68	Multi-Agent Transactive Memory	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Beyond Static Leaderboards: Predictive Validity for the Evaluation of LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.68	Efficiently Representing Algorithms With Chain-of-Thought Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	AI4SE and SE4AI Exploration: A Decade Looking Back and Forward	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Direct Advantage Estimation for Scalable and Sample-efficient Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Learning universal approximations for partial differential equations with Physics-Informed Broad Learning System	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Agentic AutoResearch forSpace Autonomy: An Auditable, LLM-Driven Research Agent for Aerospace Control Problems	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	SCAN-Planner: Spatial Collision-Aware Local Planning for Route-Guided Long-Range Quadruped Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?(market prob: 58%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	The Topology of Ill-Posed Questions: Persistent Homology for Detection and Steering in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	The Energy Consumption of Transformer Fine-Tuning: A Roofline-Inspired Scaling Model	arxiv 2026-06-22	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.68	Active Inference as the Test-Time Scaling Law for Physical AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Text Dictates, Music Decorates: Energy-based Attention for Editable Dance Motion Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	MAS-PromptBench: When Does Prompt Optimization Improve Multi-Agent LLM Systems?	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Concordia: JIT-Compiled Persistent-Kernel Checkpointing for Fault-Tolerant LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Position: Correct Answer, Wrong Mechanism -- When AI Scientists Defend General Claims Their Own Data Contradicts	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	RLM-Cascade: Response-Level Speculative Decoding for Cost-Efficient LLM API Serving	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Temporal Logic Guidance for Action-Only Diffusion Policies with World Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	InSight: Self-Guided Skill Acquisition via Steerable VLAs	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Themis: An explainable AI-enabled framework for Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Quant Convergence: Bridging Classical Value Investing and Modern Factor Models for Systematic Equity Selection	arxiv 2026-06-23	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.68	The impact of generative artificial intelligence on academic development of Chinese students in humanities and social sciences	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.68	Parallel Manifold Steering: Efficient Adaptation of Large Associative Memories via Residual Energy Shaping	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	Managing Task Execution for Unknown Workloads in Batteryless IoT: A Hardware-Agnostic Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.68	GRACE: Gated Refinement for Accurate Causal Edge Discovery in High-Dimensional Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Transformer-Based Language Models Across Domain Verticals: Architectures, Applications and Critical Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.68	ObsGraph: Hierarchical Observation Representation for Embodied Reasoning and Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	AI-Assisted Computational Reproducibility on the FABRIC Testbed	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Evaluating LLMs on Real-World Software Performance Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-24	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.68	Quantization Inflates Reasoning: Token Inflation as a Hidden Cost of Low-Bit Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	240_014 Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months Sam Altman	AI	50%
0.68	RAVEN: Long-Horizon Reasoning & Navigation with a Visuo-Spatio-Temporal Memory	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Speculative Decoding at Temperature Zero: A Scoped Safety-Invariance Screen with a 48,072-Sample Expansion	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.68	Neural Scaling Universality: If Exponents Are Fixed, Time to Understand Coefficients	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	Detect, Unlearn, Restore: Defending Text Summarization Models Against Data Poisoning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.68	Memory Retrieval in Visuomotor Policies for Long-Horizon Robot Control	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 26?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	AXLE: A Cloud Infrastructure for Lean 4 Theorem Proving Utilities	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.68	What Survives When You Compress a Recursive Reasoner for the Edge?	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	FBK's Long-form SpeechLLMs for IWSLT 2026 Instruction Following	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Transformer Architectures as Complete Bayes Processes: A Formal Proof in the Measure-Theoretic Kernel Framework	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Always-OnAgents:A Survey of Persistent Memory, State, and Governance in LLMAgents	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Clarus: Coordinating Autonomous Research Agents toward Web-Scale Scientific Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.68	SpreadsheetBench 2: Evaluating Agents on End-to-End Business Spreadsheet Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.68	MuonSSM: Orthogonalizing State Space Models for Sequence Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Evidence-Informed LLM Beliefs for Continual Scientific Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Understanding LLM Intervention Explanations in Multi-Party Human-Robot Interaction	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	31%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on July 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	What Probing Reveals about Autonomous Driving: Linking Internal Prediction Errors to Ego Planning	arxiv 2026-06-30	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.68	Bridging Quantum Computing Paradigms toward Semiconductor Yield: A Controlled CV-versus-DV Comparison on Wafer-Map Defect Classification	arxiv 2026-07-01	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelligence in Forecasting	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_004 Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash headcount while ruthlessly punishing those that retain human-heavy operational structures — transforming AI from productivity tool into an economic surveillance mech... Andrew Yang	Markets/Stocks	30%
0.68	Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelligence in Forecasting	arxiv 2026-07-02	SPC_029 'Idea Guys' vindication — because AI handles rote execution of complex engineering and software tasks, human vision and imagination become the only remaining scarcity in the economy; imagination replaces coding skill as the premium professional currency. Sam Altman	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.68	Learning to Move Before Learning to Do: Task-Agnostic pretraining for VLAs	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Steerability via constraints: a substrate for scalable oversight of coding agents	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.68	ElephantAgent: Contextual State Continuity in Agentic Systems	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	SimWorlds: A Multi-Agent System for Dynamic 3D Scene Creation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.68	COMFYCLAW: Self-Evolving Skill Harnesses for Image Generation Workflows	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Geometric Signatures of Reasoning: A Spectral Perspective on Task Hardness	arxiv 2026-07-02	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Search Beyond What Can Be Taught: Evolving the Knowledge Boundary in Agentic Visual Generation	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	Multiplayer Interactive World Models with Representation Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	AgentGym2: Benchmarking Large Language Model Agents in De-Idealized Real-World Environments	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	The Changing Role of Symbolic Methods in Artificial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	URSA: Chemistry-Aware Benchmark for Utilitarian Retrosynthesis Assessment	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Knowledge Knows, Verbalization Tells: Disentangling Latent Directions for Mathematical Solvability in LLMs	arxiv 2026-07-06	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%