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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.69	Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-15	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.69	Revealing Artifacts via Noise Amplification: A Novel Perspective for AI-Generated Video Detection	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.69	Interactor: Agentic RL oriented Iterative Creation for Ad Description Generation in Sponsored Search	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.69	SciOrch: Learning to Orchestrate Expert LLMs for Solving Frontier Multimodal Scientific Reasoning Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Human Universal Grasping	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	RHO: Your Coding Agent is Secretly a Roboticist	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	NIMO: A Software Platform for Closed-Loop Materials Exploration with Diverse AI Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Memory as a Wasting Asset: Pricing Flash Endurance for Embodied Agents, and the Limits of Doing So	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_047 Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.69	First Proof Second Batch	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.69	PseudoBench: Measuring How Agentic Auto-Research Fuels Pseudoscience	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	A Neuro-Symbolic Approach to Strategy Synthesis for Strategic Logics	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	Visored: A Controlled-Natural-Language Prover for LLM-Generated Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Scaling Enterprise Agent Routing: Degradation, Diagnosis, and Recovery	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Unlocking LLM Code Correction with Iterative Feedback Loops	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.69	Nothing from Something: Can a Language Model Discover 0?	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	From Democracies to Autocracies: How AI Systems Enable Authoritarianism by Design	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.69	A Closer Look at Failure Modes in Temporal Understanding of Large Audio-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Memory-Efficient Meta-Reinforcement Learning for Adaptive Safety-Critical Control in Adversarial Spacecraft Proximity Operations	arxiv 2026-06-16	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.69	Bridging Functional Correctness and Runtime Efficiency Gaps in LLM-Based Code Translation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	WireCraft: A Simulation Benchmark for Industrial DLO Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	User as Engram: Internalizing Per-User Memory as Local Parametric Edits	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	Improving Human-Robot Teamwork in Urban Search and Rescue Through Episodic Memory of Prior Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	LLMZero: Discovering Adaptive Training Strategies for RL Post-Training via LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	Does VLA Even Know the Basics? Measuring Commonsense and World Knowledge Retention in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Written by AI, Managed by AI: Semantic Space Control and Index Sickness Elimination Across 391 Consecutive Sessions	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Written by AI, Managed by AI: Semantic Space Control and Index Sickness Elimination Across 391 Consecutive Sessions	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.69	Enhancing Multilingual Reasoning via Steerable Model Merging	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Invertible Neural Network Adapter for One-Step Flow Matching in Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Dario Amodei still be CEO of Anthropic by the end of August 2026?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-06-19	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.69	Hierarchical Control in Multi-Agent Games: LLM-based Planning and RL Execution	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.69	The Algorithmic-Human Manager: AI, Apps, and Workers in the Indian Gig Economy	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_015 Integration of open agentic systems drives near-term 'economic inversion' — arrival of 'AI CEO' in 2026: autonomous algorithmic systems capable of directing capital and labor so efficiently they accumulate billionaire-level wealth. Open-source AI acts ... Emad Mostaque	Macro/Economy	26%
0.69	ORAgentBench: Can LLM Agents Solve Challenging Operations Research Tasks End to End?	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.69	AI4SE and SE4AI Exploration: A Decade Looking Back and Forward	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	The Correctness Illusion in LLM-Generated GPU Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Belt-Finger: An Affordable Soft Belt-Driven Gripper for Dexterous In-Hand Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 22?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	Will the US be at full employment in December 2026?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-19	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.69	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.69	Discovering Crystal Structure Prediction Algorithms with an AI Co-Scientist	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	The Origins of Stochasticity: Comprehensive Investigations on Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Superhuman AI for Generals.io Using Self-Play Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	When Robots Rate Their Own Interactions: Engagement Validity and the Strangeness Failure	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.69	Lessons from the Field: A Case Study of Robotic Intervention in an Industrial Emergency	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	ShotcreteDepth: A Bi-modal Dataset for Robust Robotic Depth Perception in Shotcrete Construction Environments	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 25?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	World Models in Pieces: Structural Certification for General Agents	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	DynaWM: Dynamics-Aware Distillation with World Model and Momentum Targets for Smooth Locomotion over Continuous Stairs	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Managing Task Execution for Unknown Workloads in Batteryless IoT: A Hardware-Agnostic Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Dialogue to Discovery: Attribute-Aware Preference Elicitation for Conversational Product Search Assistants	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.69	Neglected Free Lunch from Post-training: Progress Advantage for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.69	Space-Efficient Language Generation in the Limit	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.69	An Approach for a Supporting Multi-LLM System for Automated Certification Based on the German IT-Grundschutz	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	LibEvoBench: Probing Temporal Knowledge Stratification in Code Generation Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Heuresis: Search Strategies for Autonomous AI Research Agents Across Quality, Diversity and Novelty	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	The Clinician's Veto: Navigating Trust, Liability, and Uncertainty in Autonomous AI Prescribing	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_047 AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	10%
0.69	Memory-Efficient Policy Libraries with Low-Rank Adaptation in Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Beyond One-Size-Fits-All: Diagnosis-Driven Online Reinforcement Learning with Offline Priors	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.69	Don't Go Breaking My LLM: The Impact of Pruning Attention Layers on Explanation Faithfulness and Confidence Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Efficient and Trainable Language Model Test-Time Scaling via Local Branch Routing	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	Generative AI for Safe and Photorealistic Drone Light Shows	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.69	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.69	Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-25	COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack	Geopolitics	40%
0.69	The Capability Frontier: Benchmarks Miss 82% of Model Performance	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.69	Data-driven Machine Learning Cannot Reach Symbolic-level Logical Reasoning -- The Limit of the Scaling Law	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Forecasting With LLMs: Improved Generalization Through Feature Steering	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	SSI-Policy: Learning Structured Scene Interfaces for Vision-Language Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	CHESS: CHEbyshev pSeudo-Spectral transport for Feynman integral differential equations	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.69	Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.69	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.69	DuoMem: Towards Capable On-Device Memory Agents via Dual-Space Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	Neural Procedural Memory: Empowering LLM Agents with Implicit Activation Steering	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Mandol: An Agglomerative Agent Memory System for Long-Term Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.69	SPACE: Swarm Pheromone Fields for Adaptive Collision-Aware Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.69	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.69	🏖️What will happen in August 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-06-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.69	Explaining Machine Learning and Memorization with Statistical Mechanics	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.69	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.69	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.69	Hardware-Enforced Semantic Coordination for Safety-Critical Real-Time Autonomous Systems	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.69	Robust for the Wrong Reasons: The Representational Geometry of LLM Robustness to Science Skepticism	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.69	An Exploratory Study on LLM-Generated Code and Comments in Code Repositories	arxiv 2026-07-02	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.69	Mixture-of-Parallelisms: Towards Memory-Efficient Training Stack for Mixture-of-Experts Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	SimWorlds: A Multi-Agent System for Dynamic 3D Scene Creation	arxiv 2026-07-02	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.69	Hawk: Harnessing Hardware-Aware Knowledge for High-Performance NPU Kernel Generation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	The Agentic Garden of Forking Paths	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Embodied.cpp: A Portable Inference Runtime of Embodied AI Models on Heterogeneous Robots	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.69	Imagining the Sense of Touch: Touch-Informed Manipulation via Imagined Tactile Representations	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.69	GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.69	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%