Audit Log
Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops
Total entries
1,100
Filtered
1,100
page 3 / 22
Distinct actions
33
Distinct kinds
16
Filters
Action
Allauto_corroborate.rundoc_node_link.bulk_confirmdoc_node_link.confirmedges.isolated_high_conv_linkedges.phase2a_strength_gradingedges.scenario_correlate_backfilledges.weight_tune_v1intake.appliedkappa_decay_runlbp.completednode.bulk_resolution_fixnode.bulk_updatenode.metadata_milestone_missnode.milestone_missnodes.metadata.display_datenodes.metadata.milestonesnodes.metadata.milestones.phase2nodes.metadata.resolved_atprediction_conflicts.runprediction.recalibration_candidate.stagepredictions.december_dispersalpredictions.scenario_assignmentpredictions.tier3_reviewpredictors.brier_recomputerecommendations.bulk_importrecommendations.refresh.runreference_class_base_rate_refreshreference_class.overrideresearch_event_pack.applyresolution_history.backfillscenario.bulk_createsource_reliability.seedtrajectories.create_correlate_edges
Target kind
Actor (top 50)
Allapply_llm_milestonesapply_low_confidence_decisionsassign_predictions_to_scenariosbackfill_resolution_historybackfill_resolved_atbuild_scenario_pathscodexcompute_brier_scorescompute_display_datesderive_milestonesdisperse_december_bunchingfix_partial_classificationintake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac…intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b…intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14…intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87…intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7…lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431elbp_run:18dd8b52f967lbp_run:1a683ac9e205lbp_run:1c6a06976c86lbp_run:505c3f8c6962lbp_run:592311ef6bcalbp_run:806b02f82f58lbp_run:807dd6f649b1lbp_run:ab7ecb4c0fd0lbp_run:ba893ab6499flbp_run:cb236f3f5ed6lbp_run:cd8605f31f33lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42lbp_run:e607fa961f0blbp_run:ffd25072aee9link_trajectories_to_dimensionsmanual_overridemetadata_milestone_sweepmilestone_miss_sweepphase_2A.2_graderphase_2A.3_isolated_linkerphase_2A_backfillphase2_part3_smoke_testphase3_p4_smoke_testphase3_p6_smoke_testseed_source_reliabilitystage_recalibration_candidatessystem:auto_corroboratesystem:decay_predictor_kappasystem:detect_prediction_conflictssystem:import_recommendationssystem:refresh_recommendationssystem:refresh_reference_class_base_r…
| When | Actor | Action | Target | Before → After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_022 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45307
}{
"delta": -0.13390997483941308,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.319 blend=0.319 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3191600251605869,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_026 | view{
"current_prob": 0.41926
}{
"delta": -0.27681134656482925,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.290 blend=0.142 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.31 humanoid_commercial_volume",
"current_prob": 0.14244865343517077,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_028 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_029 | view{
"current_prob": 0.4612
}{
"delta": -0.06866530713681834,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.326 blend=0.393 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.72 fab_construction_3y",
"current_prob": 0.39253469286318166,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_041 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45324
}{
"delta": -0.13392628385810712,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.319 blend=0.319 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.31931371614189286,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_048 | view{
"current_prob": 0.50205
}{
"delta": -0.13876668519602764,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.363 blend=0.363 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.36328331480397236,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_049 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49217
}{
"delta": -0.13797813416637844,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.354 blend=0.354 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.35419186583362156,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_050 | view{
"current_prob": 0.48806
}{
"delta": -0.1376220342225446,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.350 blend=0.350 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3504379657774554,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:241_053 | view{
"current_prob": 0.54295
}{
"delta": -0.11844533700164045,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.425 blend=0.425 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4245046629983596,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_004 | view{
"current_prob": 0.41407
}{
"delta": -0.13675930222252053,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.277 blend=0.277 LLR=-0.611 κ=0.88 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.27731069777747946,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_008 | view{
"current_prob": 0.39967
}{
"delta": -0.12601958564357058,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.274 blend=0.274 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.27365041435642945,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_010 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_024 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_025 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45421
}{
"delta": -0.13404786419012765,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_032 | view{
"current_prob": 0.46136
}{
"delta": -0.13489955231825734,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.326 blend=0.326 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.32646044768174265,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_035 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_036 | view{
"current_prob": 0.41518
}{
"delta": -0.1285802737465343,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.287 blend=0.287 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.2865997262534657,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_048 | view{
"current_prob": 0.36371
}{
"delta": -0.04982918326528618,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.202 blend=0.314 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 w_in=0.36 fda_breakthrough_label",
"current_prob": 0.3138808167347138,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_049 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_056 | view{
"current_prob": 0.25038
}{
"delta": -0.09506130907294827,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.155 blend=0.155 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.15531869092705172,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:246_006 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45404
}{
"delta": -0.08418122909392933,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.275 blend=0.370 LLR=-0.611 κ=0.88 w_in=0.55 ipo_trillion_plus",
"current_prob": 0.36985877090607067,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:246_022 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45421
}{
"delta": -0.08375125279418932,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.370 blend=0.370 LLR=-0.347 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3704587472058107,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:246_037 | view{
"current_prob": 0.5294
}{
"delta": -0.15019165912520438,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.379 blend=0.379 LLR=-0.611 κ=0.88 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3792083408747956,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:246_051 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.14766303280977178,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.348 blend=0.348 LLR=-0.611 κ=0.88 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3475569671902282,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:246_052 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:247_002 | view{
"current_prob": 0.31547
}{
"delta": -0.1131011637226261,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.202 blend=0.202 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.20236883627737387,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:247_009 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45543
}{
"delta": -0.04655557504161573,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.321 blend=0.409 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.49 ipo_trillion_plus",
"current_prob": 0.4088744249583843,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:247_024 | view{
"current_prob": 0.41304
}{
"delta": -0.12824159110843175,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.285 blend=0.285 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.28479840889156827,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:247_025 | view{
"current_prob": 0.4169
}{
"delta": -0.12885136401110214,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.288 blend=0.288 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.28804863598889785,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:247_040 | view{
"current_prob": 0.25665
}{
"delta": -0.09692996696085174,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.160 blend=0.160 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.15972003303914825,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:247_051 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49522
}{
"delta": -0.1382371539328986,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:247_053 | view{
"current_prob": 0.38134
}{
"delta": -0.1279744869486839,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.253 blend=0.253 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.2533655130513161,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:247_057 | view{
"current_prob": 0.41056
}{
"delta": -0.13338297979640407,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.277 blend=0.277 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.2771770202035959,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:248_010 | view{
"current_prob": 0.31014
}{
"delta": -0.10733186667460895,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.203 blend=0.203 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.20280813332539108,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:248_011 | view{
"current_prob": 0.60311
}{
"delta": -0.14076369696783786,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.462 blend=0.462 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4623463030321622,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:SEM_001 | view{
"current_prob": 0.5486
}{
"delta": -0.11852102296870892,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.430 blend=0.430 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.43007897703129105,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:SEM_020 | view{
"current_prob": 0.74174
}{
"delta": -0.10184830476712792,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.670 blend=0.640 LLR=-0.347 κ=0.50 w_in=0.65 fab_construction_3y",
"current_prob": 0.639891695232872,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:SEM_023 | view{
"current_prob": 0.62634
}{
"delta": -0.09830849933883523,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.528 blend=0.528 LLR=-0.404 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.5280315006611648,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:SEM_025 | view{
"current_prob": 0.55017
}{
"delta": -0.1007322650661659,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.449 blend=0.449 LLR=-0.404 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.44943773493383415,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:SEM_026 | view{
"current_prob": 0.71389
}{
"delta": -0.08907251683632911,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.625 blend=0.625 LLR=-0.404 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.6248174831636709,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:SEM_032 | view{
"current_prob": 0.15
}{
"delta": -0.06145005801500622,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.089 blend=0.089 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.08854994198499377,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-03 22:12:25 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:SEM_035 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45486
}{
"delta": -0.11357951594799187,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.341 blend=0.341 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3412804840520081,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-02 22:14:26 | system:refresh_recommendations | recommendations.refresh.run | — | view{
"recs_examined": 1016,
"positions_examined": 34
}{
"alerts_queued": 0
} |
| 2026-07-02 22:14:26 | system:detect_prediction_conflicts | prediction_conflicts.run | — | view{
"summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}{
"detected": 0
} |
| 2026-07-02 22:14:26 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-07-02 22:14:25 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 0,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-07-02 22:14:23 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_020 | view{
"current_prob": 0.31417
}{
"delta": -0.056758222191480634,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.257 blend=0.257 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.25741177780851937,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-02 22:14:23 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:ROB_011 | view{
"current_prob": 0.11301
}{
"delta": -0.025076427528939654,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.088 blend=0.088 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.08793357247106035,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-07-01 22:13:33 | system:refresh_recommendations | recommendations.refresh.run | — | view{
"recs_examined": 1002,
"positions_examined": 34
}{
"alerts_queued": 0
} |
| 2026-07-01 22:13:32 | system:detect_prediction_conflicts | prediction_conflicts.run | — | view{
"summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}{
"detected": 0
} |