Audit Log
Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops
Total entries
1,095
Filtered
590
page 2 / 2
Distinct actions
33
Distinct kinds
16
Filters
Action
Allauto_corroborate.rundoc_node_link.bulk_confirmdoc_node_link.confirmedges.isolated_high_conv_linkedges.phase2a_strength_gradingedges.scenario_correlate_backfilledges.weight_tune_v1intake.appliedkappa_decay_runlbp.completednode.bulk_resolution_fixnode.bulk_updatenode.metadata_milestone_missnode.milestone_missnodes.metadata.display_datenodes.metadata.milestonesnodes.metadata.milestones.phase2nodes.metadata.resolved_atprediction_conflicts.runprediction.recalibration_candidate.stagepredictions.december_dispersalpredictions.scenario_assignmentpredictions.tier3_reviewpredictors.brier_recomputerecommendations.bulk_importrecommendations.refresh.runreference_class_base_rate_refreshreference_class.overrideresearch_event_pack.applyresolution_history.backfillscenario.bulk_createsource_reliability.seedtrajectories.create_correlate_edges
Target kind
Actor (top 50)
Allapply_llm_milestonesapply_low_confidence_decisionsassign_predictions_to_scenariosbackfill_resolution_historybackfill_resolved_atbuild_scenario_pathscodexcompute_brier_scorescompute_display_datesderive_milestonesdisperse_december_bunchingfix_partial_classificationintake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac…intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b…intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14…intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87…intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7…lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431elbp_run:18dd8b52f967lbp_run:1a683ac9e205lbp_run:1c6a06976c86lbp_run:505c3f8c6962lbp_run:592311ef6bcalbp_run:806b02f82f58lbp_run:807dd6f649b1lbp_run:ab7ecb4c0fd0lbp_run:ba893ab6499flbp_run:cb236f3f5ed6lbp_run:cd8605f31f33lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42lbp_run:e607fa961f0blbp_run:ffd25072aee9link_trajectories_to_dimensionsmanual_overridemetadata_milestone_sweepmilestone_miss_sweepphase_2A.2_graderphase_2A.3_isolated_linkerphase_2A_backfillphase2_part3_smoke_testphase3_p4_smoke_testphase3_p6_smoke_testseed_source_reliabilitystage_recalibration_candidatessystem:auto_corroboratesystem:decay_predictor_kappasystem:detect_prediction_conflictssystem:import_recommendationssystem:refresh_recommendationssystem:refresh_reference_class_base_r…
| When | Actor | Action | Target | Before → After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_066 | view{
"current_prob": 0.55629
}{
"delta": -0.02010010264485118,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.619 blend=0.536 LLR=-0.270 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y",
"current_prob": 0.5361898973551488,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_055 | view{
"current_prob": 0.21907
}{
"delta": -0.021443925746006065,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.198 blend=0.198 LLR=-0.130 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.19762607425399392,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_052 | view{
"current_prob": 0.55
}{
"delta": -0.04798131869078226,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.502 blend=0.502 LLR=-0.193 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.5020186813092178,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_047 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45
}{
"delta": -0.09705882352941181,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.353 blend=0.353 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3529411764705882,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_042 | view{
"current_prob": 0.5221
}{
"delta": -0.044571721850010015,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.478 blend=0.478 LLR=-0.178 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.47752827814999,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_040 | view{
"current_prob": 0.5
}{
"delta": -0.09999999999999998,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.400 blend=0.400 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_034 | view{
"current_prob": 0.8
}{
"delta": -0.034412378314921166,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.766 blend=0.766 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.7655876216850789,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_032 | view{
"current_prob": 0.63934
}{
"delta": -0.09767333333333328,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.542 blend=0.542 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.5416666666666667,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_031 | view{
"current_prob": 0.7
}{
"delta": -0.056811300259339226,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.643 blend=0.643 LLR=-0.258 κ=0.64 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.6431886997406607,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_016 | view{
"current_prob": 0.67862
}{
"delta": -0.05927114550598167,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.619 blend=0.619 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.6193488544940183,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_014 | view{
"current_prob": 0.5
}{
"delta": -0.058852872247948496,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.441 blend=0.441 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4411471277520515,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_011 | view{
"current_prob": 0.82127
}{
"delta": -0.0932307182012524,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.783 blend=0.728 LLR=-0.710 κ=0.58 w_in=0.77 ipo_trillion_plus",
"current_prob": 0.7280392817987476,
"n_milestones": 3
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:INF_006 | view{
"current_prob": 0.43145
}{
"delta": -0.04848344791641657,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.383 blend=0.383 LLR=-0.201 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.38296655208358343,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_026 | view{
"current_prob": 0.6388
}{
"delta": -0.1356351900075482,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.503 blend=0.503 LLR=-0.558 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.5031648099924518,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_023 | view{
"current_prob": 0.33054
}{
"delta": -0.17965567748663766,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.199 blend=0.151 LLR=-0.684 κ=0.84 w_in=0.58 humanoid_commercial_volume",
"current_prob": 0.15088432251336234,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_019 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53062
}{
"delta": -0.11732733351145469,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.413 blend=0.413 LLR=-0.473 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4132926664885453,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_016 | view{
"current_prob": 0.17614
}{
"delta": 0.076656700656235,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.125 blend=0.253 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 w_in=0.56 mars_uncrewed_landing_window",
"current_prob": 0.252796700656235,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_014 | view{
"current_prob": 0.6
}{
"delta": -0.11688120306729544,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.483 blend=0.483 LLR=-0.473 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.48311879693270454,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_012 | view{
"current_prob": 0.71751
}{
"delta": -0.07079056350349111,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.647 blend=0.647 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.6467194364965089,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_011 | view{
"current_prob": 0.63139
}{
"delta": -0.1488807980543035,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.483 blend=0.483 LLR=-0.608 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4825092019456965,
"n_milestones": 3
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_010 | view{
"current_prob": 0.50874
}{
"delta": -0.10031631581675426,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.408 blend=0.408 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4084236841832457,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_007 | view{
"current_prob": 0.38
}{
"delta": -0.07478738909875338,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.305 blend=0.305 LLR=-0.333 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.30521261090124663,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_006 | view{
"current_prob": 0.3753
}{
"delta": -0.048142417746913524,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.632 blend=0.327 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 w_in=0.64 regulatory_freeze_window",
"current_prob": 0.3271575822530865,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_005 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45
}{
"delta": -0.1248731850004487,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.325 blend=0.325 LLR=-0.530 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3251268149995513,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_003 | view{
"current_prob": 0.75
}{
"delta": -0.2917212897051165,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.458 blend=0.458 LLR=-1.266 κ=0.84 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4582787102948835,
"n_milestones": 4
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:FUT_016 | view{
"current_prob": 0.55
}{
"delta": -0.1010204081632653,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.449 blend=0.449 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.44897959183673475,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:FUT_004 | view{
"current_prob": 0.51815
}{
"delta": -0.2388585457639345,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.475 blend=0.279 LLR=-0.172 κ=0.50 w_in=0.34 agi_breakthrough_5y",
"current_prob": 0.2792914542360655,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:232_056 | view{
"current_prob": 0.44712
}{
"delta": -0.07031546022623858,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.377 blend=0.377 LLR=-0.291 κ=0.84 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.37680453977376144,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:232_010 | view{
"current_prob": 0.58059
}{
"delta": -0.07410954741283338,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.506 blend=0.506 LLR=-0.299 κ=0.87 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.5064804525871667,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:231_004 | view{
"current_prob": 0.44712
}{
"delta": -0.07031546022623858,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.377 blend=0.377 LLR=-0.291 κ=0.84 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.37680453977376144,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_034 | view{
"current_prob": 0.55636
}{
"delta": -0.17359424818464775,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.383 blend=0.383 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3827657518153522,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_033 | view{
"current_prob": 0.46029
}{
"delta": -0.08225425805567088,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.378 blend=0.378 LLR=-0.339 κ=0.84 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3780357419443291,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_025 | view{
"current_prob": 0.58229
}{
"delta": -0.1725371397927008,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.410 blend=0.410 LLR=-0.697 κ=0.87 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4097528602072992,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_013 | view{
"current_prob": 0.57919
}{
"delta": -0.07009893760356956,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.509 blend=0.509 LLR=-0.283 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.5090910623964304,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:230_008 | view{
"current_prob": 0.44712
}{
"delta": -0.0500289891850943,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.397 blend=0.397 LLR=-0.205 κ=0.84 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3970910108149057,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:229_022 | view{
"current_prob": 0.34205
}{
"delta": -0.15470317130852737,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.280 blend=0.187 LLR=-0.288 κ=0.77 w_in=0.58 humanoid_commercial_volume",
"current_prob": 0.18734682869147265,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:229_002 | view{
"current_prob": 0.62806
}{
"delta": -0.29414363350758166,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.564 blend=0.334 LLR=-0.266 κ=0.77 w_in=0.61 humanoid_commercial_volume",
"current_prob": 0.3339163664924183,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:229_001 | view{
"current_prob": 0.62806
}{
"delta": -0.2876977487558071,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.576 blend=0.340 LLR=-0.219 κ=0.77 w_in=0.61 humanoid_commercial_volume",
"current_prob": 0.34036225124419284,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:245_014 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45031
}{
"delta": -0.24996728624878506,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=5 inside=0.200 blend=0.200 LLR=-1.185 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.20034271375121493,
"n_milestones": 5
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:244_016 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53975
}{
"delta": -0.26033084898711245,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.279 blend=0.279 LLR=-1.107 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.2794191510128875,
"n_milestones": 4
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:243_041 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53753
}{
"delta": -0.12919946449809483,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.408 blend=0.408 LLR=-0.521 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4083305355019051,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:243_040 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53728
}{
"delta": -0.0688806979208017,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.468 blend=0.468 LLR=-0.276 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4683993020791983,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:243_035 | view{
"current_prob": 0.54718
}{
"delta": -0.05908885230542954,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.488 blend=0.488 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.48809114769457046,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:243_029 | view{
"current_prob": 0.30924
}{
"delta": -0.04821016842090897,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.261 blend=0.261 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.26102983157909104,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:243_027 | view{
"current_prob": 0.48237
}{
"delta": -0.05523771724975585,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.427 blend=0.427 LLR=-0.223 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4271322827502442,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_046 | view{
"current_prob": 0.5178
}{
"delta": -0.15461550920970535,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.363 blend=0.363 LLR=-0.633 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3631844907902947,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_044 | view{
"current_prob": 0.43161
}{
"delta": -0.08045975219174806,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.351 blend=0.351 LLR=-0.339 κ=0.84 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.35115024780825194,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_014 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49494
}{
"delta": -0.06151593521892962,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.433 blend=0.433 LLR=-0.248 κ=0.64 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4334240647810704,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:241_022 | view{
"current_prob": 0.50324
}{
"delta": -0.13610849682519466,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.367 blend=0.367 LLR=-0.558 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.36713150317480536,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:241_020 | view{
"current_prob": 0.5198
}{
"delta": -0.03371594133598366,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.454 blend=0.486 LLR=-0.265 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y",
"current_prob": 0.4860840586640164,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:241_003 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53377
}{
"delta": -0.05916297021707795,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.475 blend=0.475 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.474607029782922,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_056 | view{
"current_prob": 0.58469
}{
"delta": -0.2560280179291355,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.329 blend=0.329 LLR=-1.056 κ=0.87 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.32866198207086456,
"n_milestones": 3
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_050 | view{
"current_prob": 0.54275
}{
"delta": -0.07063643540130926,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.472 blend=0.472 LLR=-0.283 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4721135645986907,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_037 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45147
}{
"delta": -0.15929734714085714,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.292 blend=0.292 LLR=-0.690 κ=0.87 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.29217265285914285,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_033 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49494
}{
"delta": -0.06151593521892962,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.433 blend=0.433 LLR=-0.248 κ=0.64 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4334240647810704,
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} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_025 | view{
"current_prob": 0.55311
}{
"delta": -0.006294199042107929,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.470 blend=0.547 LLR=-0.335 κ=0.87 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y",
"current_prob": 0.5468158009578921,
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} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_014 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53975
}{
"delta": -0.21919737507031256,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.321 blend=0.321 LLR=-0.911 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3205526249296874,
"n_milestones": 4
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:239_033 | view{
"current_prob": 0.48478
}{
"delta": -0.16716118124219354,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.318 blend=0.318 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.64 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.31761881875780645,
"n_milestones": 3
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:239_013 | view{
"current_prob": 0.2969
}{
"delta": -0.15940325641924621,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.162 blend=0.137 LLR=-0.782 κ=0.64 w_in=0.65 humanoid_commercial_volume",
"current_prob": 0.13749674358075378,
"n_milestones": 3
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:239_003 | view{
"current_prob": 0.55001
}{
"delta": -0.06499534023110137,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.485 blend=0.485 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4850146597688986,
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} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:239_002 | view{
"current_prob": 0.37106
}{
"delta": -0.12699424028227674,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.313 blend=0.244 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 w_in=0.43 agi_breakthrough_5y",
"current_prob": 0.24406575971772326,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:238_068 | view{
"current_prob": 0.47266
}{
"delta": -0.0500787510532229,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.423 blend=0.423 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4225812489467771,
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} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:238_025 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49497
}{
"delta": -0.06684897691107011,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.428 blend=0.428 LLR=-0.269 κ=0.72 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4281210230889299,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:238_023 | view{
"current_prob": 0.38533
}{
"delta": -0.2315443075924337,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.328 blend=0.154 LLR=-0.250 κ=0.82 w_in=0.56 regulatory_freeze_window",
"current_prob": 0.15378569240756632,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:238_005 | view{
"current_prob": 0.44788
}{
"delta": -0.07835348104797457,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.370 blend=0.370 LLR=-0.325 κ=0.84 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.36952651895202543,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:237_011 | view{
"current_prob": 0.48518
}{
"delta": -0.05045967682827002,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.435 blend=0.435 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.64 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.43472032317173,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:236_048 | view{
"current_prob": 0.58675
}{
"delta": -0.07394362515720887,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.513 blend=0.513 LLR=-0.299 κ=0.87 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.5128063748427911,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:236_025 | view{
"current_prob": 0.48237
}{
"delta": -0.05864466177649852,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.424 blend=0.424 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4237253382235015,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:236_010 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53975
}{
"delta": -0.1312855991542729,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.408 blend=0.408 LLR=-0.530 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.40846440084572705,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:235_033 | view{
"current_prob": 0.58059
}{
"delta": -0.08467227078827999,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.496 blend=0.496 LLR=-0.342 κ=0.87 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.49591772921172006,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:235_032 | view{
"current_prob": 0.21751
}{
"delta": -0.06873152334737084,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.149 blend=0.149 LLR=-0.464 κ=0.64 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.14877847665262917,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:235_027 | view{
"current_prob": 0.58459
}{
"delta": -0.17425403640270032,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.410 blend=0.410 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.41033596359729974,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:235_021 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49149
}{
"delta": -0.03285122671513352,
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"current_prob": 0.45863877328486646,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:234_046 | view{
"current_prob": 0.5294
}{
"delta": -0.0623609941445985,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.467 blend=0.467 LLR=-0.250 κ=0.82 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4670390058554015,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:234_019 | view{
"current_prob": 0.37757
}{
"delta": -0.22633001711372394,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=5 inside=0.120 blend=0.151 LLR=-1.495 κ=0.84 w_in=0.56 agi_breakthrough_5y",
"current_prob": 0.15123998288627608,
"n_milestones": 5
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:233_011 | view{
"current_prob": 0.40381
}{
"delta": -0.036401103931623435,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.367 blend=0.367 LLR=-0.154 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.36740889606837657,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:233_009 | view{
"current_prob": 0.40399
}{
"delta": -0.028119895184772536,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.376 blend=0.376 LLR=-0.118 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3758701048152275,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:233_007 | view{
"current_prob": 0.57392
}{
"delta": -0.0379509143311304,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.536 blend=0.536 LLR=-0.154 κ=0.58 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.5359690856688696,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-02 22:07:21 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:232_057 | view{
"current_prob": 0.44203
}{
"delta": -0.004137667493527231,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.303 blend=0.438 LLR=-0.599 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 mars_uncrewed_landing_window",
"current_prob": 0.43789233250647275,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-01 22:09:22 | milestone_miss_sweep | node.milestone_miss | node:238_001 | view{
"current_prob": 0.47458
}{
"delta": -0.16346386777994798,
"reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.311 blend=0.311 LLR=-0.693 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.311116132220052,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-01 22:09:22 | milestone_miss_sweep | node.milestone_miss | node:229_045 | view{
"current_prob": 0.29355
}{
"delta": -0.20109068710649008,
"reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.077 blend=0.092 LLR=-1.607 κ=0.77 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume",
"current_prob": 0.0924593128935099,
"n_milestones": 3
} |
| 2026-05-01 22:09:22 | milestone_miss_sweep | node.milestone_miss | node:242_009 | view{
"current_prob": 0.46029
}{
"delta": -0.13817331788966664,
"reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.322 blend=0.322 LLR=-0.585 κ=0.84 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.32211668211033334,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-01 22:09:22 | milestone_miss_sweep | node.milestone_miss | node:238_006 | view{
"current_prob": 0.44841
}{
"delta": -0.2184013837344284,
"reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.230 blend=0.230 LLR=-1.001 κ=0.72 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.23000861626557156,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-01 22:09:22 | milestone_miss_sweep | node.milestone_miss | node:INF_032 | view{
"current_prob": 0.83372
}{
"delta": -0.194375737704918,
"reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.639 blend=0.639 LLR=-1.040 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.639344262295082,
"n_milestones": 3
} |
| 2026-05-01 22:09:22 | milestone_miss_sweep | node.milestone_miss | node:INF_012 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53809
}{
"delta": -0.03798065430220465,
"reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.500 blend=0.500 LLR=-0.404 κ=0.58 w_in=0.38 energy_grid_rebuild_5y",
"current_prob": 0.5001093456977953,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-05-01 22:09:22 | milestone_miss_sweep | node.milestone_miss | node:245_011 | view{
"current_prob": 0.58459
}{
"delta": -0.28771487687563124,
"reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.297 blend=0.297 LLR=-1.204 κ=0.87 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.2968751231243688,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-01 22:09:22 | milestone_miss_sweep | node.milestone_miss | node:243_029 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53728
}{
"delta": -0.22804094325970226,
"reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.309 blend=0.309 LLR=-0.953 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3092390567402977,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-05-01 22:09:22 | milestone_miss_sweep | node.milestone_miss | node:243_026 | view{
"current_prob": 0.53975
}{
"delta": -0.2283871779456096,
"reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.311 blend=0.311 LLR=-0.953 κ=0.69 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.31136282205439036,
"n_milestones": 2
} |
| 2026-04-30 19:54:22 | manual_override | reference_class.override | node:AI_037 | view{
"current_prob": 0.25,
"reference_class_id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
}{
"reason": "mismatched class — EU AI Act compliance is implementation, not freeze",
"current_prob": 0.87,
"reference_class_id": null
} |
| 2026-04-29 22:37:42 | phase2_part3_smoke_test | node.bulk_update | node:229_001 | view{
"conviction": 5,
"resolutionStatus": "in_progress"
}{
"conviction": 5,
"resolutionStatus": "in_progress"
} |