Audit Log
Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops
Total entries
1,100
Filtered
54
page 2 / 2
Distinct actions
33
Distinct kinds
16
Filters
Action
Allauto_corroborate.rundoc_node_link.bulk_confirmdoc_node_link.confirmedges.isolated_high_conv_linkedges.phase2a_strength_gradingedges.scenario_correlate_backfilledges.weight_tune_v1intake.appliedkappa_decay_runlbp.completednode.bulk_resolution_fixnode.bulk_updatenode.metadata_milestone_missnode.milestone_missnodes.metadata.display_datenodes.metadata.milestonesnodes.metadata.milestones.phase2nodes.metadata.resolved_atprediction_conflicts.runprediction.recalibration_candidate.stagepredictions.december_dispersalpredictions.scenario_assignmentpredictions.tier3_reviewpredictors.brier_recomputerecommendations.bulk_importrecommendations.refresh.runreference_class_base_rate_refreshreference_class.overrideresearch_event_pack.applyresolution_history.backfillscenario.bulk_createsource_reliability.seedtrajectories.create_correlate_edges
Target kind
Actor (top 50)
Allapply_llm_milestonesapply_low_confidence_decisionsassign_predictions_to_scenariosbackfill_resolution_historybackfill_resolved_atbuild_scenario_pathscodexcompute_brier_scorescompute_display_datesderive_milestonesdisperse_december_bunchingfix_partial_classificationintake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac…intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b…intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14…intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87…intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7…lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431elbp_run:18dd8b52f967lbp_run:1a683ac9e205lbp_run:1c6a06976c86lbp_run:505c3f8c6962lbp_run:592311ef6bcalbp_run:806b02f82f58lbp_run:807dd6f649b1lbp_run:ab7ecb4c0fd0lbp_run:ba893ab6499flbp_run:cb236f3f5ed6lbp_run:cd8605f31f33lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42lbp_run:e607fa961f0blbp_run:ffd25072aee9link_trajectories_to_dimensionsmanual_overridemetadata_milestone_sweepmilestone_miss_sweepphase_2A.2_graderphase_2A.3_isolated_linkerphase_2A_backfillphase2_part3_smoke_testphase3_p4_smoke_testphase3_p6_smoke_testseed_source_reliabilitystage_recalibration_candidatessystem:auto_corroboratesystem:decay_predictor_kappasystem:detect_prediction_conflictssystem:import_recommendationssystem:refresh_recommendationssystem:refresh_reference_class_base_r…
| When | Actor | Action | Target | Before → After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 22:15:35 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.772689,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.821387,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.843786,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.899984,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.722191,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.722191,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.874985,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.807687,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.549998,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-07 22:13:02 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.899987,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.722193,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.722193,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.80769,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.549998,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.772691,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.82139,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.843789,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.874988,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-06 22:13:11 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.772693,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.89999,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.821392,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.843792,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.722195,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.722195,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.807692,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.549999,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.874991,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000002,
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| 2026-05-05 22:11:00 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
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