Audit Log

{
  "current_prob": 0.60541
}

{
  "delta": -0.05766450420221725,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.548 blend=0.548 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.5477454957977828,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.43714
}

{
  "delta": -0.049087948998007114,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.388 blend=0.388 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.38805205100199286,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.25045
}

{
  "delta": -0.06097516494877886,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.189 blend=0.189 LLR=-0.357 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.18947483505122115,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.32672
}

{
  "delta": -0.16311604625510953,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.269 blend=0.164 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.47 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.16360395374489048,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.36945
}

{
  "delta": -0.06227205832641275,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.307 blend=0.307 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.30717794167358725,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.47521
}

{
  "delta": -0.08737986025569061,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.388 blend=0.388 LLR=-0.357 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3878301397443094,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.60509
}

{
  "delta": -0.04932322111548415,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.556 blend=0.556 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.5557667788845159,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.35294
}

{
  "delta": -0.04462675272230893,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.308 blend=0.308 LLR=-0.202 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.30831324727769105,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.6479
}

{
  "delta": -0.055003462091127164,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.600 blend=0.593 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 w_in=0.63 fab_construction_3y",
  "current_prob": 0.5928965379088729,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.51534
}

{
  "delta": -0.05062113594659706,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.465 blend=0.465 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.46471886405340296,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.467
}

{
  "delta": -0.06831412830914774,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.399 blend=0.399 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3986858716908523,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.67074
}

{
  "delta": -0.08111755719500457,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.590 blend=0.590 LLR=-0.349 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.5896224428049954,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45258
}

{
  "delta": -0.043285159130786344,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.364 blend=0.409 LLR=-0.250 κ=0.88 w_in=0.66 ipo_trillion_plus",
  "current_prob": 0.40929484086921364,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.28359
}

{
  "delta": -0.05931650486188736,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.224 blend=0.224 LLR=-0.314 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.22427349513811265,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45798
}

{
  "delta": -0.0864588604217641,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.372 blend=0.372 LLR=-0.357 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3715211395782359,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.40122
}

{
  "delta": 0.012229089674481608,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.321 blend=0.413 LLR=-0.349 κ=0.86 w_in=0.47 mars_uncrewed_landing_window",
  "current_prob": 0.41344908967448163,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.87062
}

{
  "delta": -0.042348532412862516,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.828 blend=0.828 LLR=-0.333 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.8282714675871374,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.42054
}

{
  "delta": -0.07836486532349013,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.342 blend=0.342 LLR=-0.333 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3421751346765099,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.53893
}

{
  "delta": -0.04624369405574996,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.488 blend=0.493 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 w_in=0.63 energy_grid_rebuild_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.49268630594425006,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.34753
}

{
  "delta": -0.06393578397655286,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.284 blend=0.284 LLR=-0.297 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.28359421602344714,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.43471
}

{
  "delta": -0.07102739147483922,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.364 blend=0.364 LLR=-0.297 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.36368260852516077,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.46601
}

{
  "delta": -0.08690966627362284,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.379 blend=0.379 LLR=-0.357 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.37910033372637714,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45403
}

{
  "delta": -0.0677944630086772,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.386 blend=0.386 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3862355369913228,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.62651
}

{
  "delta": -0.06716437319581281,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.559 blend=0.559 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.5593456268041872,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.53646
}

{
  "delta": -0.06971217587006939,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.467 blend=0.467 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.46674782412993066,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.48548
}

{
  "delta": -0.06890510913191666,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.417 blend=0.417 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.41657489086808336,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}

{
  "delta": -0.04490825434703,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.409 blend=0.409 LLR=-0.183 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.40930174565297,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.41715
}

{
  "delta": -0.22311440941071628,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.354 blend=0.194 LLR=-0.266 κ=0.82 w_in=0.65 regulatory_freeze_window",
  "current_prob": 0.19403559058928374,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.16521
}

{
  "delta": -0.03495619959431967,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.130 blend=0.130 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.13025380040568033,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.50237
}

{
  "delta": -0.08844173982162185,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.414 blend=0.414 LLR=-0.357 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.41392826017837814,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.38433
}

{
  "delta": -0.06349924685244301,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.321 blend=0.321 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.320830753147557,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.48526
}

{
  "delta": -0.08783015875645778,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.397 blend=0.397 LLR=-0.357 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.39742984124354225,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.31251
}

{
  "delta": -0.04182313760275985,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.271 blend=0.271 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.27068686239724016,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.54564
}

{
  "delta": -0.050556536149982456,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.495 blend=0.495 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.49508346385001756,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.46229
}

{
  "delta": -0.0867046181920153,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.376 blend=0.376 LLR=-0.357 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3755853818079847,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.34714
}

{
  "delta": -0.04442059419545091,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.303 blend=0.303 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3027194058045491,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.41613
}

{
  "delta": -0.05451932030443102,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.292 blend=0.362 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.64 mars_uncrewed_landing_window",
  "current_prob": 0.361610679695569,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.8103
}

{
  "delta": -0.056507325781572915,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.754 blend=0.754 LLR=-0.333 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.7537926742184271,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.35406
}

{
  "delta": -0.12224897409143065,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.232 blend=0.232 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.23181102590856933,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.53597
}

{
  "delta": -0.026546916163372125,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.509 blend=0.509 LLR=-0.106 κ=0.58 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.5094230838366278,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.55202
}

{
  "delta": -0.0846013437261347,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.467 blend=0.467 LLR=-0.339 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.46741865627386525,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.50337
}

{
  "delta": -0.038274271881832356,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.465 blend=0.465 LLR=-0.153 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.46509572811816763,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.43816
}

{
  "delta": -0.03056976904806341,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.408 blend=0.408 LLR=-0.125 κ=0.77 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4075902309519366,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.54974
}

{
  "delta": -0.0752024179089677,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.475 blend=0.475 LLR=-0.302 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4745375820910323,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.50992
}

{
  "delta": -0.06189626854862412,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.448 blend=0.448 LLR=-0.248 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4480237314513759,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.37616
}

{
  "delta": 0.07045199259790869,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.343 blend=0.447 LLR=-0.142 κ=0.50 w_in=0.33 ipo_trillion_plus",
  "current_prob": 0.4466119925979087,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.48144
}

{
  "delta": -0.0274016216568978,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.411 blend=0.454 LLR=-0.284 κ=0.88 w_in=0.51 ipo_trillion_plus",
  "current_prob": 0.4540383783431022,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.46017
}

{
  "delta": -0.04488926694751538,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.374 blend=0.415 LLR=-0.355 κ=0.88 w_in=0.67 ipo_trillion_plus",
  "current_prob": 0.41528073305248464,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45202
}

{
  "delta": -0.056856060318512036,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.395 blend=0.395 LLR=-0.233 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.39516393968148794,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.28592
}

{
  "delta": -0.04943829333478392,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.236 blend=0.236 LLR=-0.257 κ=0.63 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.2364817066652161,
  "n_milestones": 1
}