Audit Log

{
  "current_prob": 0.30719
}

{
  "delta": -0.09130769236201919,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.216 blend=0.216 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.21588230763798083,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.38704
}

{
  "delta": -0.08791163022409959,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.299 blend=0.299 LLR=-0.392 κ=0.57 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.2991283697759004,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.40741
}

{
  "delta": -0.13283475383763255,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.275 blend=0.275 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.27457524616236745,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.24428
}

{
  "delta": -0.025415823265330012,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.268 blend=0.219 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.21886417673466999,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.36715
}

{
  "delta": -0.10231597782037088,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.265 blend=0.265 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.2648340221796291,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.44759
}

{
  "delta": -0.11288089365662218,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.335 blend=0.335 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3347091063433778,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.43892
}

{
  "delta": 0.06341039071567034,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.327 blend=0.502 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y",
  "current_prob": 0.5023303907156703,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.38499
}

{
  "delta": -0.21766497564817286,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.266 blend=0.167 LLR=-0.549 κ=0.79 w_in=0.50 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.16732502435182714,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.22748
}

{
  "delta": -0.11404828088658797,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.143 blend=0.113 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.35 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.11343171911341202,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.38134
}

{
  "delta": -0.1279744869486839,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.253 blend=0.253 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.2533655130513161,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.46515
}

{
  "delta": -0.37183424718075175,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.330 blend=0.093 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 regulatory_freeze_window",
  "current_prob": 0.09331575281924823,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.52076
}

{
  "delta": -0.13998564255596607,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.381 blend=0.381 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.38077435744403393,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.46998
}

{
  "delta": -0.23443752435699633,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.334 blend=0.236 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.23554247564300368,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.50388
}

{
  "delta": -0.2342448064652773,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.355 blend=0.270 LLR=-0.611 κ=0.88 w_in=0.49 agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.2696351935347227,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.46158
}

{
  "delta": -0.21274913191585698,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.327 blend=0.249 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.42 agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.248830868084143,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.3861
}

{
  "delta": -0.12890970807694097,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.257 blend=0.257 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.25719029192305903,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}

{
  "delta": -0.13404786419012765,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}

{
  "delta": -0.13404786419012765,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.53592
}

{
  "delta": -0.011362012450166215,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.395 blend=0.525 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y",
  "current_prob": 0.5245579875498337,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.53646
}

{
  "delta": -0.14071819901289456,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.396 blend=0.396 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3957418009871055,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}

{
  "delta": -0.13404786419012765,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}

{
  "delta": -0.13404786419012765,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.38424
}

{
  "delta": -0.12854362760336158,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.256 blend=0.256 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.25569637239663845,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.53646
}

{
  "delta": -0.14071819901289456,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.396 blend=0.396 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3957418009871055,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.46375
}

{
  "delta": -0.14421548801679096,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.611 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.31953451198320904,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.44268
}

{
  "delta": -0.24638276226733188,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.304 blend=0.196 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 w_in=0.72 regulatory_freeze_window",
  "current_prob": 0.19629723773266813,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.51168
}

{
  "delta": -0.13943814212824224,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.372 blend=0.372 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3722418578717578,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.50942
}

{
  "delta": -0.09700739432135025,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.412 blend=0.412 LLR=-0.392 κ=0.57 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.41241260567864974,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}

{
  "delta": -0.13404786419012765,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32016213580987235,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45381
}

{
  "delta": -0.13399797265964358,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.320 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3198120273403564,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.44573
}

{
  "delta": -0.10578631950527817,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.340 blend=0.340 LLR=-0.446 κ=0.64 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.33994368049472184,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.40929
}

{
  "delta": -0.09982164294674961,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.237 blend=0.309 LLR=-0.611 κ=0.88 w_in=0.69 ipo_trillion_plus",
  "current_prob": 0.3094683570532504,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.41193
}

{
  "delta": -0.08068776192406923,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.331 blend=0.331 LLR=-0.347 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3312422380759308,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.39436
}

{
  "delta": -0.15182469376071436,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.264 blend=0.243 LLR=-0.597 κ=0.86 w_in=0.69 agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.24253530623928563,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49522
}

{
  "delta": -0.1382371539328986,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3569828460671014,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.46319
}

{
  "delta": -0.3521074232485101,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.328 blend=0.111 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.39 regulatory_freeze_window",
  "current_prob": 0.11108257675148989,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45279
}

{
  "delta": -0.2618133329648442,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.319 blend=0.191 LLR=-0.569 κ=0.82 w_in=0.69 regulatory_freeze_window",
  "current_prob": 0.1909766670351558,
  "n_milestones": 1
}