Timeline Fan

1347 of 1347 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Forked into 4 mutually-exclusive Robotaxi branches — each lane shows the claims that hinge on that scenario.

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

73 plotted across 4 branches · 4 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.

AMZN-impacting (4)

CMQ_056

SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV

Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.

82% → 19% · resolves 2026-12

-63pp

240_037

SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV

Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027

65% → 8% · resolves 2027-10

-57pp

235_019

SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV

Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.

65% → 9% · resolves 2027-06

-56pp

229_001

PH · MIELY · MAN · SYM

Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.

92% → 39% · resolves 2026-09

-53pp

CRWV-impacting (4)

235_047

NVDA · CRWV · APLD · NBIS

AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs).

65% → 10% · resolves 2027-06

-55pp

CYB_024

CRWV · WULF · EQIX · OKLO

The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security...

72% → 17% · resolves 2030-09

-55pp

231_013

NVDA · AI · SOUN · BBAI

Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.

62% → 8% · resolves 2027-06

-54pp

248_019

TSEM · SKYT · MRCY · RKLB

US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.

65% → 12% · resolves 2026-06

-53pp

IBM-impacting (2)

241_043

NVDA · AI · SOUN · BBAI

ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade

65% → 14% · resolves 2035-10

-51pp

235_030

NVDA · AI · SOUN · BBAI

Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.

75% → 24% · resolves 2033-09

-51pp

LMT-impacting (1)

COD_SPC_004

LMT · NOC

Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026

95% → 48% · resolves 2026-12

-47pp

Other / no ticker (2)

AI_013

'SaaSpocalypse' — traditional Software-as-a-Service incumbents (Salesforce, Adobe, HubSpot) will see massive sustained declines in market capitalization; AI lowers the barrier to creating bespoke customized software, eliminating the SaaS subscription m...

72% → 29% · resolves 2028-09

-43pp

CYB_005

'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio...

72% → 30% · resolves 2026-08

-42pp

GOOGL-impacting (1)

246_039

PONY · AUR · MBLY · AEVA

Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.

65% → 22% · resolves 2028-10

-43pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.