Timeline Fan

216 of 216 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Forked into 4 mutually-exclusive AGI branches — each lane shows the claims that hinge on that scenario.

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

51 plotted across 4 branches · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.

CRWV-impacting (4)

231_013

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.

62% → 8% · resolves 2027-06

-54pp

248_019

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.

65% → 12% · resolves 2026-06

-53pp

235_024

ABT · ACN · ADUS · CHGG

In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.

45% → 7% · resolves 2029-10

-38pp

230_016

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).

92% → 55% · resolves 2030-06

-37pp

AMZN-impacting (4)

247_043

ABBNY · ALNT · AMZN · BYDDY

Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector

50% → 8% · resolves 2028-06

-42pp

246_020

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).

50% → 20% · resolves 2030-10

-30pp

IND_023

ABBNY · ALNT · AMZN · BYDDY

'Cambrian explosion of bipedal labor' driven by hundreds of robotics companies — autonomy graduates from pilot programs to municipal public utilities by 2026; rupture of psychological firewall between humans and synthetic minds; AI soon optimizes its o...

48% → 22% · resolves 2026-10

-26pp

234_032

ABBNY · ALNT · AMZN · BYDDY

Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion

50% → 29% · resolves 2030-11

-21pp

Other / no ticker (1)

IND_003

Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph...

75% → 46% · resolves 2026-11

-29pp

IBM-impacting (1)

237_023

ACN · AI · AMZN · BABA

Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.

50% → 27% · resolves 2027-06

-23pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.