Timeline Fan

97 of 97 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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CRWV 176 IBM 136 NBIS 133 AMZN 95 GOOGL 95 MSFT 94 META 93 NVDA 93 ORCL 93 CORZ 88 ACN 87 APLD 87 CHGG 87 SFTBY 87

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

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Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

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Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

97 plotted · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.

CRWV-impacting (4)

231_013

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.

62% → 8% · resolves 2027-06

-54pp

248_037

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.

50% → 14% · resolves 2026-06

-36pp

232_060

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto.

55% → 20% · resolves 2026-10

-35pp

234_019

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks

50% → 24% · resolves 2026-11

-26pp

IBM-impacting (3)

237_023

ACN · AI · AMZN · BABA

Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.

50% → 27% · resolves 2027-06

-23pp

242_045

ADUS · AI · AMZN · APO

AI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economy

50% → 37% · resolves 2029-03

-13pp

234_016

ABBNY · AI · AMZN · BBAI

Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex

50% → 39% · resolves 2029-03

-11pp

GOOGL-impacting (2)

AUT_002

ALL · BABA · FROG · GOOGL

Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...

72% → 59% · resolves 2029-11

-13pp

246_033

AEVA · AIOT · ALL · AMBA

Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of human drivers is legally.

45% → 34% · resolves 2029-03

-11pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.